The $50 Billion Bloodbath: Why Airline Operations Control Centers Will Be Ghost Towns by 2030

I Like IKE said:
We already live in a post-scarcity world.
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In some ways yes. Like, a medieval peasant would think Santa Monica was the land of Cockaigne, but there is still a lot of scarcity yet. I expect scarcity to continue to plummet as we use these tools to make things more convenient, efficient, etc.
 
manniax said:
One thing that articles like this seem to keep overlooking is the FAA agreeing to a major policy change. And right now I think their policy is that operational control of a flight can only be shared by a human. I'd be amazed to see them change this anytime soon. I see AI certainly being used as a tool, perhaps reducing OCC workload and causing some job attrition that way, but I'd be amazed if the FAA changes a regulation eliminating a well-established safety position.
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It's all about $$$.
 
ppragman said:
In some ways yes. Like, a medieval peasant would think Santa Monica was the land of Cockaigne, but there is still a lot of scarcity yet. I expect scarcity to continue to plummet as we use these tools to make things more convenient, efficient, etc.
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The scarcity that exists today is synthetic.
 
AI is a threat to anyone doing work.

I can’t comment when it comes to Dispatch, but I do know they have a group of people looking at schedule modeling and how to increase reliability which resulted in a need for MORE people in certain areas, not less.

However, it’s just a matter of time before the algorithm presses for single pilot operations on certain fleets/operations. ALPA can shake it’s fist all it wants, and so can we, but in the end, I think it’s a foregone conclusion in the next 20 years.
 
derg said:
AI is a threat to anyone doing work.

I can’t comment when it comes to Dispatch, but I do know they have a group of people looking at schedule modeling and how to increase reliability which resulted in a need for MORE people in certain areas, not less.

However, it’s just a matter of time before the algorithm presses for single pilot operations on certain fleets/operations. ALPA can shake it’s fist all it wants, and so can we, but in the end, I think it’s a foregone conclusion in the next 20 years.
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It will be interesting to see what happens, but I feel like for dispatch it will be an additional tool (like the computerized flight planning systems that we already use) rather than a replacement. Of course, I could be wrong. Time will tell as it always does...
 
manniax said:
It will be interesting to see what happens, but I feel like for dispatch it will be an additional tool (like the computerized flight planning systems that we already use) rather than a replacement. Of course, I could be wrong. Time will tell as it always does...
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Operationally, I can see it being a fantastic tool for scheduling and routing.

Scheduling because an airport that operates in ‘banks’ it’s almost like everything arrives and departs simultaneously. Now if they could use AI to smoothen-out the peaks and valleys using departure/arrival times coupled with routing, speeds and blend in some help from ATC with RTA’s over particular fences it might improve things. But the industry is so focused on “depature time” rather than being focused on a reliable arrival time.

I don’t know, just spitballin’ on a Sunday.
 
derg said:
Operationally, I can see it being a fantastic tool for scheduling and routing.

Scheduling because an airport that operates in ‘banks’ it’s almost like everything arrives and departs simultaneously. Now if they could use AI to smoothen-out the peaks and valleys using departure/arrival times coupled with routing, speeds and blend in some help from ATC with RTA’s over particular fences it might improve things. But the industry is so focused on “depature time” rather than being focused on a reliable arrival time.

I don’t know, just spitballin’ on a Sunday.
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This comes back to another problem with generative AI - many of the things proposed as use cases for it, could be solved cheaper with traditional technologies. This is one such example. Airlines could do this, but they choose not to because developing it will be very expensive and require a lot of coordination between several different systems. AI can cut through all of that, sure, but training such an AI would be even more expensive.
 
derg said:
AI is a threat to anyone doing work.

I can’t comment when it comes to Dispatch, but I do know they have a group of people looking at schedule modeling and how to increase reliability which resulted in a need for MORE people in certain areas, not less.

However, it’s just a matter of time before the algorithm presses for single pilot operations on certain fleets/operations. ALPA can shake it’s fist all it wants, and so can we, but in the end, I think it’s a foregone conclusion in the next 20 years.
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Yup. Actually though, to be fair, airplanes are (hilariously) going to probably be one of the later things that gets automated, largely because the money. It is so freaking expensive to certify one that it won't be worth it to automate it for awhile. Which is kind of hilarious. I think there's going to be a lot of jobs like that. Jobs that just kind of linger on because it's not worth the effort to automate.
 
The day our DX'ers are replaced by AI, is the day I walk out of this job. • that • dude. Might as well just connect us to a call center in India, it'd be cheaper, and arguably better (in the better of two terrible options scenario).
 
I fly cargo so everyone assumes it’s coming to our side of the world first, seems logical. The one thing I can’t figure out is if everyone loses their job, who is going to be able to afford airline tickets to fill seats on airplanes???? Further if we start replacing white collar jobs who is going to buy shares of AI company of the week so they have the funny money to develop all of this. At a certain point the hamster dies and the wheel stops spinning.

At the end of the day AI can’t replace a sailboat and that’s where you’ll find me when it’s all said and done and we have no point to continue running on the wheel for other people’s benefit.
 
mikecweb said:
At the end of the day AI can’t replace a sailboat and that’s where you’ll find me when it’s all said and done and we have no point to continue running on the wheel for other people’s benefit.
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I've always halfway joked that if I didn't have student loans I would have bought a sailboat in the Caribbean years ago. Life would seem so much easier. Just need a small job here and there to afford food and repairs.
 
“Nobody will ever get in an automatic elevator! How will they know what floor to stop at!”

You guys kill me with the argument of self importance and contract wording being your means of protecting your career from technology. Take a look at the money spent on payroll and probably bigger take a look at the money spent on hotel and transport for crews. There is a massive financial and demographics driven incentive for the air transportation world to “solve” its problems through automation. Derg has already seen some of the stuff I sent on AI monitoring of airspace, and it’s mind-blowing how behind we are executing voice comms for every function while objects move through shared space at 50-500 meters per second. Automation is coming and it will outlive the complaints and resistance. Some of you are old enough to remember when you had to talk to a person to get your clearance….

The last person on the airplane employed by the airlines won’t be driving the plane, they’ll be serving drinks and ensuring the meat bags have their seatbelts on. Automate the seats and you could probably solve that too.
 
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Lawman said:
“Nobody will ever get in an automatic elevator! How will they know what floor to stop at!”

You guys kill me with the argument of self importance and contract wording being your means of protecting your career from technology. Take a look at the money spent on payroll and probably bigger take a look at the money spent on hotel and transport for crews. There is a massive financial and demographics driven incentive for the air transportation world to “solve” its problems through automation. Derg has already seen some of the stuff I sent on AI monitoring of airspace, and it’s mind-blowing how behind we are executing voice comms for every function while objects move through shared space at 50-500 meters per second. Automation is coming and it will outlive the complaints and resistance. Some of you are old enough to remember when you had to talk to a person to get your clearance….

The last person on the airplane employed by the airlines won’t be driving the plane, they’ll be serving drinks and ensuring the meat bags have their seatbelts on. Automate the seats and you could probably solve that too.
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y’all in the military are going to put mechahitler in charge of weapons systems, we’ll be lucky if civilization makes it that far.
 
CalebH said:
Imagine being a dispatcher for the spacing guild. Must be some wild days.
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A dispatcher for Spirit recently quit and was hired by Blue Origin as an Orbital Launch Controller. Maybe not so far off… Granted I believe he had a masters and maybe another degree, and I believe military experience as well. But still. It’s an option, kind of neat.

The way I see it, is the technology being developed and out there? Yes. And it is coming at lightning speed. But it is the regulations, red tape, bureaucracy, lobbying, etc. that take forever. Anytime a regulation needs to be changed or incorporated, it takes years. Often we curse this, but in this case, thank God. Just look at NOTAMs for instance. They have been talking about “cleaning them up” and making them more concise and easier to read for how many years now? Yes the FAA came out with a new NOTAM website but they have been discussing things like “grass mowing” type NOTAMs being removed and keeping only the absolute safety pertinent critical ones in. Every city and airport wants to cover their back sides in case the slightest thing goes wrong, so they throw in every tiny NOTAM they can think of to do so. If they can’t even get those more organized, then I suspect, changing the regulations to full on allow single pilot operations, and then eventually zero pilot operations, which could lead to zero dispatchers as we know them, would take decades.

The thing I would be more worried about as a dispatcher is if they reduce pilot operations, they may make it where the pilot is both pilot and dispatcher. They could eventually be going to zero pilot operations and having the pilot now sit at a desk doing both jobs “flying” or controlling the automated plane. Dispatchers may need to have their pilot license in the future or drone license. Anyway, the day that they actually clean up the NOTAMs will be the day that I start shaking in my boots a little more… Now cleaning NOTAMs may actually be a great job for AI.

@ppragman dispatchers already release on average about 40 +/- flights a shift and have on average 10-15 +/- flights in the air at the same time. If AI replaced dispatchers it would make it more like being a flight follower in Europe, where they literally follow thousands of flights a day and just make “adjustments as needed” here and there. They just do not write the releases, plan the routes, etc. or hold operational control.

Operational Control. The regulations would have to redefine , replace that all together.
 
LaCorderaVoladora said:
The thing I would be more worried about as a dispatcher is if they reduce pilot operations, they may make it where the pilot is both pilot and dispatcher. They could eventually be going to zero pilot operations and having the pilot now sit at a desk doing both jobs “flying” or controlling the automated plane. Dispatchers may need to have their pilot license in the future or drone license.
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Paradigm already exists and operates daily in both the national and international airspace…
 
LaCorderaVoladora said:
@ppragman dispatchers already release on average about 40 +/- flights a shift and have on average 10-15 +/- flights in the air at the same time. If AI replaced dispatchers it would make it more like being a flight follower in Europe, where they literally follow thousands of flights a day and just make “adjustments as needed” here and there. They just do not write the releases, plan the routes, etc. or hold operational control.

Operational Control. The regulations would have to redefine , replace that all together.
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Cool, thanks for the info. I came from 135, and we had flight followers (usually private pilots who could whip out a W&B or do a quick flight plan) at a few shops. They typically were only working something like 4-10 flights at a time? But way smaller scale, shorter legs, etc. Interesting.
 
It’s not just the safety and regulatory aspect, it’s the common sense and experience aspect.

Just the other day I prevented a diversion by sending a flight to another corner post than filed. Years of experience told me that if they continued on their filed route with the way the radar was shaping up they would be stuck in holding for 30+ minutes and then get a significant reroute around the weather, which is exact what happened to every flight that continued on with that arrival.

I highly doubt AI will ever be able to replicate that. I am even more confident after seeing Flightkeys in action and the absolutely insane things it comes up with.
 
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