Supply and Demand..

higney85

higney85

Property of Scheduling
Anyone who has glanced at a flying magazine or job posting board knows that the time required to get hired at a regional is "low" to say the least. Now, just as everything else and economics- supply and demand would dictate that a trade off is going to have to come soon. I remember a few years ago when I was working on my private that 1500/300 was about the going rate to get hired, then it seemed like 1200/200, then 1000/100, now it seems like 600/50... Obviously there are the programs such as ATP that bring pilots to a regional level just out of the student level- when/what is going to cause a turn? All the regionals are struggling to find pilots, now the majors are firing back up, all while people are either leaving the industry- or steering away from the career to begin with. Will pay/benefits go up? It would seem that they should, but will they? And will ALPA be able to get back to what is was, or will judges decide if our contracts are legal on any given day? As I like to say- Time will tell....

I am just curious as to what eveyone else thinks..
 
IMHO the airlines will begin to pay for training, at least part of it. Training cost is a big reason people can't meet mins. I've even heard this from reps at FSA.
 
What you fail to realize is that capitalism doesn't exist, it was snuffed out on October 24th of 1929 in this country. The Man wants you believe that it's still affecting your life, though, as it lets you play into His* hands.



*His has been capitalized because capitalism, and not Christianity, is the primary religion of this country.
 
jtrain609 said:
*His has been capitalized because capitalism, and not Christianity, is the primary religion of this country.
Click to expand...

For the love of money
People will steal from their mother
For the love of money
People will rob their own brother
For the love of money
People can't even walk the street
Because they never know who in the world they're gonna beat
For that lean, mean, mean green
Almighty dollar, money

For the love of money
People will lie, Lord, they will cheat
For the love of money
People don't care who they hurt or beat
For the love of money
A woman will sell her precious body
For a small piece of paper it carries a lot of weight
Call it lean, mean, mean green

Almighty dollar
 
I wish I could just have one round of golf with management- see how they think, get em hammered, and talk some sense into them- all while taking money from them every hole!
 
higney85 said:
I wish I could just have one round of golf with management- see how they think, get em hammered, and talk some sense into them- all while taking money from them every hole!
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They're thick-headed and resistant to any form of common sense, even when they're piss drunk..........they also know how to play golf....in fact, it's the only thing they do quite well.... :bandit:
 
launchpad said:
They're thick-headed and resistant to any form of common sense, even when they're piss drunk..........they also know how to play golf....in fact, it's the only thing they do quite well.... :bandit:
Click to expand...

Much like Air Force leadership.

Go figure!
 
higney85 said:
Anyone who has glanced at a flying magazine or job posting board knows that the time required to get hired at a regional is "low" to say the least. Now, just as everything else and economics- supply and demand would dictate that a trade off is going to have to come soon. I remember a few years ago when I was working on my private that 1500/300 was about the going rate to get hired, then it seemed like 1200/200, then 1000/100, now it seems like 600/50... Obviously there are the programs such as ATP that bring pilots to a regional level just out of the student level- when/what is going to cause a turn? All the regionals are struggling to find pilots, now the majors are firing back up, all while people are either leaving the industry- or steering away from the career to begin with. Will pay/benefits go up? It would seem that they should, but will they? And will ALPA be able to get back to what is was, or will judges decide if our contracts are legal on any given day? As I like to say- Time will tell....

I am just curious as to what eveyone else thinks..
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Dude, Xjet and Lakes were hiring people with 600 hours three years ago. This is nothing new. And there is NO PILOT SHORTAGE!
 
jtrain609 said:
What you fail to realize is that capitalism doesn't exist, it was snuffed out on October 24th of 1929 in this country. The Man wants you believe that it's still affecting your life, though, as it lets you play into His* hands.



*His has been capitalized because capitalism, and not Christianity, is the primary religion of this country.
Click to expand...

You would like the book "The Creature from Jekyll Island".

Anyone here been to Jekyll Island?
 
Hootie9750 said:
And there is NO PILOT SHORTAGE!
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Prove it.

If you can't see the signs ... Mesa is now going back through their rejected interview files giving people second chances because they are so short. The majors are starting to hire again so now you have very few pilots coming in fromthe bottom and you are starting to see lots leave from the top. Hell, the age 65 rule, for christ's sake, is all about staving off a pilot shortage. It's a lame-a$$ attempt by the ATA to save their own butts because there ain't no more pilots. Period.

People are scared of the industry and there is no more carrot on the stick to attract new pilots (or FA or Mechanics, etc.)

Just because a lot of people say they want to do a job doesn't mean there are a lot of people qualified to do the job.

At best there is a 2:1 ratio of "qualified" (ATP/Commercialy certificated) pilots to AIRLINE (part 121) jobs. That's a pretty slim ratio. Especially when you add in all the part 135 and part 91 jobs out there. Journailsm schools pump out about 10 new j-school grads every year for every one journaism job. Law schools pump out about 12 grads every year for every one job.

How many new, qualified pilots are added each year? The number of certificated pilots has declined since the late 80's and remained pretty much unchanged since the 90s. All the while the demand and capacity of, just, the airline system has increased by leaps and bounds.

My new hire class (on both aircraft) was comprised of 75% prior 121. Those guys left openings where they came from and you can only canabalise from other airlines for so long.

Do the math.
 
So? Mine is the same.

Just because a shortage is here doesn't mean management a) gives a crap or b) realizes it.

You can only drop mins so low. Pay, unfortunately, will be the very, very, very, very last thing to change. But it's time is rapidly approaching.
 
Management's answer to a shortage is to lower the mins, not raise the pay to attract qualified applicants. Paychecks are meaningless in proving a pilot shortage. Now, when the mins get down to 250/10, then they'll have no choice but to either up the pay or pay for people's ratings. There's nowhere else to go!

I'd say there's not really a pilot shortage. I'd say there's a shortage of QUALIFIED pilots. IMO, it's probably gonna stay that way, too. The cost of getting the required flight ratings continues to skyrocket while the ROI of getting those ratings stays the same. If I hadn't gotten my ratings on the cheap before the oil price explosion, I'd seriously be considering NOT doing this as a career. Back when I started, $40K would get you into Flight Safety. Now, that'll barely cover ATP. However, wages at the regional level are about the same, and wages at the majors have DROPPED.
 
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