Southwest to Anchorage?

[TallFlyer]

Some interesting thoughts....

Will Southwest Airlines fly to Anchorage?

It's a fair question in light of Southwest's bid for Denver-based Frontier Airlines. Airline financial analysts concede Frontier is Southwest's for the taking.

For Alaskan travelers, such a takeover could lead to lower airfares and more options -- an airline competition they haven't seen in years.

Frontier, based in Denver, is in bankruptcy. Until recently, only Republic Airlines (a holding company that operates a regional airline, Chautauqua Airlines) had shown an interest in acquiring the carrier. But last week, Southwest made a bid that was several million dollars more than Republic's.

The answer could fall either way. Currently, Frontier Airlines operates a single, seasonal non-stop flight from Anchorage to Denver. Southwest might decide not to continue it. In its current state, Frontier's Anchorage-Denver service really doesn't fit the Southwest model. High-frequency service is part of Southwest's "secret sauce."

Then there's the motivation behind Southwest's bid for Frontier. It's certainly not to grow Southwest. The purpose, rather, is to eliminate competition in Denver.

So where would Anchorage fit in the picture?

Simple. Anchorage represents an out-of-the-box opportunity for Southwest. The city has good air service but no low-fare operators. Fares are high, and there is pent-up demand for more affordable air transportation.

The incumbent airline, Alaska Airlines, has built Anchorage into a fortress hub. In addition to the nonstop flights around Alaska (Fairbanks, Nome, Bethel, Kodiak, Juneau, Adak), the Seattle-based carrier offers nonstop service to Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Denver, Chicago, Vancouver, BC, Honolulu and Maui.

There's more. Alaska Airlines and Southwest Airlines are fierce competitors in several markets, including Seattle, Portland, Las Vegas, Oakland, Phoenix and Denver. When Southwest proposed to build a terminal at Seattle's Boeing Field, it was Alaska Airlines that mounted a vigorous challenge that ultimately killed the deal.

But Southwest Airlines has played a big part in the transformation of Alaska Airlines into a low-fare carrier in markets where the two carriers compete. Alaska Airlines is a classy operator -- and they do not hesitate to point out the defining points to travelers: award-winning mileage program, pre-assigned seats, first class options and--uh--service to Alaska!

In the super-competitive West Coast corridor, Alaska Airlines also must compete with JetBlue and Virgin America. Both carriers are keeping prices low between Seattle, Portland, San Francisco and Los Angeles.

When the dust settles, if all that's left of Frontier's link to Alaska is a single, seasonal red-eye, what's the incentive for Southwest to alter their business model to exploit that one flight?

However, if Southwest decides it could establish a new destination with at least eight daily flights to established Southwest cities, like Seattle, Portland, Salt Lake City, Denver, Las Vegas and Phoenix, well, you can connect the dots. At that point, Southwest would enjoy enough "economy of scale" for the airline to hire staff and build a team in Anchorage.

Would Southwest Airlines find enough passengers in Anchorage? Would travelers abandon their Alaska Airlines mileage plan, even when Alaska matched Southwest's fares?

These, too, are fair questions, and the crystal ball isn't exactly clear in the murky world of bankruptcies, fuel hedges and the cost of new aircraft.

Southwest's analysts, in preparation for a binding offer of Frontier Airlines in bankruptcy court (due on Aug. 10), certainly are reviewing the Anchorage element of Frontier's operations, as well as Frontier's Mexico routes.

Accordingly, Anchorage is enjoying some extra scrutiny from one of the world's most successful airlines.

Anchorage, once known as the air crossroads of the world, has a world-class airport, superb infrastructure and a population that loves to travel three to five times as much as folks in the Lower 48. Could Anchorage play a key role in the growth and profitability of Southwest?

Right now, the key to unlock low fares for thousands of Alaska travelers -- and the key to the city -- are the same. And that key is Southwest's for the taking.

 

[Timbuff10]

Southwest sucks!

 

[ASpilot2be]

So you read that article too.

I dont really see it happening. I am pretty sure F9 makes most of their money off of freight on the Anchorage run. With the amount of fish we stuff on their flights, I dont think a 737-700 could handle it.

 

[Maximilian_Jenius]

So you read that article too.

I dont really see it happening. I am pretty sure F9 makes most of their money off of freight on the Anchorage run. With the amount of fish we stuff on their flights, I dont think a 737-700 could handle it.

Why doesn't SW operate the 738 as well? All NG 737 have the same wingspan, so the 738 would have no problem parking at SWA's gates..

 

[ASpilot2be]

Why doesn't SW operate the 738 as well? All NG 737 have the same wingspan, so the 738 would have no problem parking at SWA's gates..

As far as I know they dont have any -800s. Yes the wingspan on the -700s and A319s are pretty much identical.

 

[Maximilian_Jenius]

As far as I know they dont have any -800s. Yes the wingspan on the -700s and A319s are pretty much identical.

Yea, they only have 700's!

 

[ASpilot2be]

Yea, they only have 700's!

Thats what I was thinking.

 

[ERfly]

Why doesn't SW operate the 738 as well? All NG 737 have the same wingspan, so the 738 would have no problem parking at SWA's gates..

It's not a matter of parking space. The -800 needs an additional FA. It would either mean that SWA would always have to carry an extra FA (just in case of an equipment swap) or have FA scattered all over the place.

 

[ppragman]

Some interesting thoughts....

I'd be a good thing I think. Though I don't see it happening. AS wants Anchorage, and that's about it, they've tried to back out of everywhere else (Dutch, King, Dilli, etc), and use ERA (read HoTH holdings) as much as possible for Bethel, Kodiak, and Fairbanks. It costs a lot to come up here. That's a long time at altitude to go to ANC from SEA, and I don't think you can really lower the prices too much without losing money. The last airlines that really got into a price war with Alaska were MarkAir, and Reeve's. That didn't work out so good either.

 

[tonyw]

I don't know if there would be enough traffic for Southwest to want to do it. Think about what they do and how they make their money. They specialize in quick turns and using their aircraft more times per day than the legacy carriers do.

Would they be able to do that if they flew to Anchorage? Keep in mind that Alaska's entire population is only 648K people. It's not like flying into LA or Chicago.

 

[Maximilian_Jenius]

It's not a matter of parking space. The -800 needs an additional FA. It would either mean that SWA would always have to carry an extra FA (just in case of an equipment swap) or have FA scattered all over the place.

Bigger plane=more pax=more money!

At least in theory..

 

[Stomp16]

Bigger plane=more pax=more money!

At least in theory..

So why do we have 2, 7 & 900's running around everywhere that replaced those bigger planes? Not that I don't agree with you.

 

[ASpilot2be]

Would they be able to do that if they flew to Anchorage? Keep in mind that Alaska's entire population is only 648K people. It's not like flying into LA or Chicago.

Winter might be a different story, but right now F9s planes are packed coming and going. Same story on Alaskas flights to Denver. I also think they are making decent money of freight between the two cities. On a good night we will put two tons of fish on the flight. The plane usually comes in packed with freight too. I have seen the forward pit filled to the max with Select Comfort beds, Bowflexs, mail, and other things.

 

[WalterSobchak]

So why do we have 2, 7 & 900's running around everywhere that replaced those bigger planes? Not that I don't agree with you.

Airlines love spending money they won't pay back.........

 

[ChasenSFO]

Bigger plane=more pax=more money!

At least in theory..

Thats why Dr. Phil is going to fly 747s from LAX-LAS. And you all laughed!

 

[ppragman]

I don't know if there would be enough traffic for Southwest to want to do it. Think about what they do and how they make their money. They specialize in quick turns and using their aircraft more times per day than the legacy carriers do.

Would they be able to do that if they flew to Anchorage? Keep in mind that Alaska's entire population is only 648K people. It's not like flying into LA or Chicago.

I think the key to winter flying up here is shipping cargo. You'd be amazed, simply amazed at how much fish there is to move, and stuff there is to transport. Its unholy.

 

[ASpilot2be]

I think the key to winter flying up here is shipping cargo. You'd be amazed, simply amazed at how much fish there is to move, and stuff there is to transport. Its unholy.

:yeahthat:

 

[KLB]

Even AMF flies fish out of Ketchikan and Anchorage. I bet that those are high dollar charters and stinky flights.