So-cal is all wet

M

mshunter

Well-Known Member
Here is the NWS forcast discussion. As of 22:06Z.


SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...LATEST RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS A PRECURSOR
TO THE VERY WET WEEK AHEAD. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BEFORE THE FIRST STORMS STARTS MOVING IN MONDAY
MORNING. THROUGH TONIGHT...SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET
SO ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION.

ON MONDAY...THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ON THROUGH THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME...ALL THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY SUCH AS GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND DECENT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP (PWATS AROUND 1.2"). ALSO...
THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD INSTABILITY THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THIS FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE 1-3" FOR COAST AND 3-6" IN
THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES WITH CONVECTION...MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS WILL BE A GREAT
CONCERN. WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BURN AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. AS FOR SNOW LEVELS...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN ABOVE
7000 FEET THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND 5000
FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH
AFTERNOON PACKAGE...INDICATING MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ABOVE
7000 FEET. ALONG WITH THE PRECIP...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORM...PRODUCING WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS
SLO/SBA COUNTIES. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THESE AREAS
WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
BRINGING MORE RAINFALL TO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LESS THAN MONDAY'S STORM.
HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...SO SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE THIRD AND MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF
THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
WITH THIS THIRD SYSTEM...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUMP UP THE
SNOW LEVELS SOMEWHAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT (AROUND 5500 FEET).
SO...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION
FLASH FLOOD AND HIGH WIND PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE COMMON.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ON THURSDAY...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
AS STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PWATS AROUND 1.40" CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE INTERESTING NOTE WITH THURSDAY WILL BE
THE FACT THAT A 170+ KNOT JET MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME EXTRA DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE VERY INTENSE RAINFALL AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5500 FEET.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THEIR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.
SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE AND MUCH
LESS THAN OBSERVED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
 
vikingair said:
All freaking week..pretty much the entire state. :mad:
Click to expand...


Down here, I am going to focus on my inst. students. Back and forth between most of the routes we can stay below the freezing level, and get actual. Good way to get your nose wet if your going after an instrument rating. Ceelings are at about 1-2k it seems, and the temps are up, with no signs of convection yet, although it may come later.


GET UP IN IT WHEN THE GETTIN IS GOOD! Looks like later in the week, it may get colder, and the ice will likely start. Even if you don't have any students, it's preatty tame right now, and is good for proficency.
 
mshunter said:
GET UP IN IT WHEN THE GETTIN IS GOOD! Looks like later in the week, it may get colder, and the ice will likely start. Even if you don't have any students, it's preatty tame right now, and is good for proficency.
Click to expand...

:yeahthat:

Up here in the Central valley we've had a month of fog and low clouds and like everywhere else if you're not flying, you're not eating! EVERY flight gets you in the soup, although it only goes to 2k. Makes up for the other 330 days with nary a cloud in sight
 
This is what we in the northeast call "Gentleman's IFR." You know, the type of IFR where you're doing your shopping list on the approach. :cwm27:
 
TEMPO 2018/2022 15045G58KT 2SM TSRA OVC025CB yes...45 gusting to 58

I don't have to write my shopping list, the wind has blown
everything I could need into the yard. I'll having a
garage sale on trash cans, stop signs, pizza boxes and
small children soon.


Was standing outside last night watching the lightening when
the TS broke overhead. Wind went from breezy to a downdraft so
strong it sounded like a freight train. For a second thought
I'd better get in the bathtub, this has gotta be a tornado.
 
vikingair said:
I don't have to write my shopping list, the wind has blown
everything I could need into the yard. I'll having a
garage sale on trash cans, stop signs, pizza boxes and
small children soon.
Click to expand...

:D

It appears things have gotten a whole lot more fun since I wrote my last reply.
 
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