Smoke in a TAF

z987k

z987k

Well-Known Member
KEKN 220524Z 2206/2306 17003KT 6SM BR FU SKC
FM221300 00000KT 5SM HZ FU SCT060
FM221400 22006KT P6SM SCT060
FM221700 22008G18KT P6SM SCT060
FM222100 22009KT P6SM SCT060

How do you forcast smoke? Is some forecaster hinting he's about to commit arson near EKN? :laff:
Planned fire? High chance of wildfire?

I've never seen this. Thought it was interesting.
 
z987k said:
KEKN 220524Z 2206/2306 17003KT 6SM BR FU SKC
FM221300 00000KT 5SM HZ FU SCT060
FM221400 22006KT P6SM SCT060
FM221700 22008G18KT P6SM SCT060
FM222100 22009KT P6SM SCT060

How do you forcast smoke? Is some forecaster hinting he's about to commit arson near EKN? :laff:
Planned fire? High chance of wildfire?

I've never seen this. Thought it was interesting.
Click to expand...

I'd imagine it's a wildfire upwind of EKN.
 
lol, but they think it will be gone by 1400? And it's not started yet as it's not in the metar. So someone has awesome wildfire predicting powers?
 
there was a controlled burn in St. Augustine over the weekend, made SGJ go to the FU in the METAR even though wind was blowing it north.
 
A couple years ago when the Great Dismal Swap was burning, there was smoke forecast in the TAF for ORF off and on for a couple months.

FU!
 
Fly_Unity said:
Is there actually humans that write up all these TAF's? or is it a computer?
Click to expand...

Some days it is hard to tell!!!!!

I really like the NOWCASTING. Look it is raining - lets change the fcst, oh its sunny - time to amend, oh wait now it is snowing - another amend.

I think the folks in DEN take the title as the best NOWCASTERS in the country.
 
Fly_Unity said:
Is there actually humans that write up all these TAF's? or is it a computer?
Click to expand...

Just like everything else in aviation. It depends. Most facilities that are tied into a NWS location are manual, but the people augment a computer model. Most other facilities, even MIL AFBs, are mostly computerized and every so often they will double check, but that's not all the time.
 
If you're surrounded by agricultural land and the area allows burning off the remnants of last season's crop and weeds it's not uncommon to have smoke in the forecast. I'm not sure if a computerized model discriminates between smoke and any other obscuration, but I'd guess that a live forecaster would be the one to make the call.
 
As a TAF writer...humans write them, even at the NWS WFOs. And, contrary to what a previous user just mentioned, as a regional weather supervisor I'm watching military junior enlisted folks compile four to eight TAFs for overseas locations right now. While they use synoptic and mesocale computer models to develop the forecasts - no computer puts any TAF together. It is all encoded using software, but the forecasters are certainly hand developing the product - hitting specification criteria for winds, visibility, and cigs. Some regional weather facilities in the Air Force do have a computerize TAF that can be generated - but it usually has about 10 lines and is absolutely useless. We do a pretty good job as humans of making the product that we can't really be bothered to use the 10 line computer TAF. Thankfully the place I work doesn't offer such software, then again it'd be extremely useless in our AOR.

That said, smoke can be forecasted with some accuracy when outside information (burn schedule) is provided and localized winds impact prevailing visibility.

Carry on...
 
z987k said:
lol, but they think it will be gone by 1400? And it's not started yet as it's not in the metar. So someone has awesome wildfire predicting powers?
Click to expand...

or someone is just using guidance from an aerosol dispersion model. Put some smoke particles in a model and let them be advected by the wind and see where they go. If the concentration gets too large, issue an advisory, or in this case, put it in the TAF.
 
Many times in the Summer months, the TAF will include forecasts of smoke while the forest fires are happening. The inversion layer can hold the smoke low in the mountains and valleys during the early morning hours, visibility drops to 3 - 5 sm. Then around 2 pm, the inversion breaks, the fire roars to life (like an atomic bomb), you see the top of the convection smoke at 28,000 feet. Valley visibility goes to 10+ sm.
 
surreal1221 said:
As a TAF writer...humans write them, even at the NWS WFOs. And, contrary to what a previous user just mentioned, as a regional weather supervisor I'm watching military junior enlisted folks compile four to eight TAFs for overseas locations right now. While they use synoptic and mesocale computer models to develop the forecasts - no computer puts any TAF together. It is all encoded using software, but the forecasters are certainly hand developing the product - hitting specification criteria for winds, visibility, and cigs. Some regional weather facilities in the Air Force do have a computerize TAF that can be generated - but it usually has about 10 lines and is absolutely useless. We do a pretty good job as humans of making the product that we can't really be bothered to use the 10 line computer TAF. Thankfully the place I work doesn't offer such software, then again it'd be extremely useless in our AOR.

That said, smoke can be forecasted with some accuracy when outside information (burn schedule) is provided and localized winds impact prevailing visibility.

Carry on...
Click to expand...
...are you all hiring?
 
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