Single pilot airliners may be

mshunter said:
Autoland didn't exist when turbines first came about. Now it does, and I'm willing to bet a pastrami sandwich it's an option on every Boeing made. Technology slowly advances. In time, it could be a 99.9% thing, and the .1% may be viewed as an acceptable risk.
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It's not only the technology on the jet that you have to be conscious about. An aircraft crossing the runway ahead can bungle an autoland very easily. A sudden gust of wind, even.

And no, 0.1% is not an acceptable risk. Worldwide, there are ~100,000 flights per day. 0.1% acceptable risk would mean balling up 100 aircraft per day if each were to be autolanded without human input.
 
dasleben said:
It's not only the technology on the jet that you have to be conscious about. An aircraft crossing the runway ahead can bungle an autoland very easily. A sudden gust of wind, even.

And no, 0.1% is not an acceptable risk. Worldwide, there are ~100,000 flights per day. 0.1% acceptable risk would mean balling up 100 aircraft per day if each were to be autolanded without human input.
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All good points, with where our technology is now. But if it did go to pilotless airplanes, it would all have to be improved upon, and likely would be if/when it does. And the .1% was used to make a point, not be a real statistic. I think you missed that.
 
mshunter said:
Autoland didn't exist when turbines first came about. Now it does, and I'm willing to bet a pastrami sandwich it's an option on every Boeing made. Technology slowly advances. In time, it could be a 99.9% thing, and the .1% may be viewed as an acceptable risk.
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Have you ever actually conducted autoland operations? It's not the magic that you think it is. The 717 has one of the best autoland systems out there, certified to CATIII single-engine. And it does a phenomenal job...as long as conditions fit within the tight limitations of the system. Got a 30 knot gusty wind? That airplane is going into the dirt, my friend. And most systems are far less reliable than it is.
 
Anyone notice that most of the people who are so adamant that this is inevitable also have little to no experience actually flying highly-automated airliners?

Automation is great. Ask @Boris Badenov about how much I love me some automation. But it's a tool for pilots, not a replacement for pilots. We're a good couple of centuries away from AI technology sufficient to replace pilots in the complex environment that is an airliner in the NAS.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
Have you ever actually conducted autoland operations? It's not the magic that you think it is. The 717 has one of the best autoland systems out there, certified to CATIII single-engine. And it does a phenomenal job...as long as conditions fit within the tight limitations of the system. Got a 30 knot gusty wind? That airplane is going into the dirt, my friend. And most systems are far less reliable than it is.
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Indeed. The 767 does a nice job until it doesn't. I mentioned earlier in the thread that I was doing an autoland in VMC a few weeks back in a brand-new 767-300F (aircraft needs it every 28 days), and while there was a 20 knot crosswind, it was within limits of the system. At 50', the airplane started making a left turn off centerline. I took over manually and landed.

Not a huge deal, and it's why we're there. But, just goes to show you that it's still just a machine, and doesn't take the place of a pilot using his/her judgment.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
Anyone notice that most of the people who are so adamant that this is inevitable also have little to no experience actually flying highly-automated airliners?
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What exactly does that have to do with where technology is headed? Like I said, auto land has it's limitations, but it is continually being improved upon. Saying it's centuries out and will be AI is ridiculous. This is a topic about single pilot airliners. I've spent more than a few hours on 777 jump seats. The pilots there are merely systems monitors. When that thing sees a problem, it sets everything up for you, and all the pilot does is run the QRH to match the switch positions of what the airplane has already done for him. Single pilot is coming. When, who knows?
 
mshunter said:
I've spent more than a few hours on 777 jump seats. The pilots there are merely systems monitors.
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The fact that you believe this is proof that you aren't qualified to comment on this subject.

In your many hours of sitting on jumpseats, did you happen to notice who was making decisions necessary for the safety of flight? Hint: it wasn't the computer.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
The fact that you believe this is proof that you aren't qualified to comment on this subject.

In your many hours of sitting on jumpseats, did you happen to notice who was making decisions necessary for the safety of flight? Hint: it wasn't the computer.
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Did you gloss over the part where I specifically mentioned there was a body up front in a single pilot airliner making the decisions?

How's that crystal ball working out for you. With your ability to accurately predict the future, you should be rich as hell right now.

It's coming. To speculate when is insanity.
 
mshunter said:
Did you gloss over the part where I specifically mentioned there was a body up front in a single pilot airliner making the decisions?
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I'm not arguing against the possibility of single pilot airliners. I guess I should have been clearer about that. I'm arguing against the possibility of no-pilot airliners.

Single pilot is probably coming eventually. It's probably a lot further in the future than you think, though. Consider this: several of the large rail operators have recently been talking heavily about moving to single person freight train operations. BNSF even got their union to sign off on the idea (contingent upon new technology being installed for braking). But guess what the Federal Railroad Administration thinks? No way. They've never even had a minimum crew complement regulation, but now they're wanting to implement one to stop this from happening. If the government isn't even comfortable with single person freight trains, how many generations do you think are going to have to pass before a government bureaucrat is going to have the balls to sign off on single pilot passenger-carrying airliners?

How's that crystal ball working out for you. With your ability to accurately predict the future, you should be rich as hell right now.
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I'm doing alright. :)

It's coming. To speculate when is insanity.
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No, to estimate when based on experience, current technology, and reasonable estimates of future technology is rational.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
The fact that you believe this is proof that you aren't qualified to comment on this subject.

In your many hours of sitting on jumpseats, did you happen to notice who was making decisions necessary for the safety of flight? Hint: it wasn't the computer.
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This x 1000
 
I was just thinking it's funny how we're talking about all this crazy technology dooming a profession that still relies heavily on dot matrix printers from the 60s.
 
JordanD said:
I was just thinking it's funny how we're talking about all this crazy technology dooming a profession that still relies heavily on dot matrix printers from the 60s.
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I couldn't believe when I first saw a flight crew printing out 27 pages of WTF. Coming out of a machine that I haven't heard since middle school. The entire flight crew was standing around that thing like it was some kind of idol. I'm still convinced that working for an airline is joining a cult. How else could people do something so wasteful and redundant, over and over?
 
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