Single pilot airliners may be
- Thread starter mshunter
- Start date
Beep
Well-Known Member
Don't get me wrong here, I do not like the idea of a single pilot airliner, that will not be enough to stop " progress ", though. Truth be told I don't like the idea of single pilot business jets either.
Twenty three years ago when I started flying there was still a strong sentiment from the pilot group that getting rid of the flight engineer was a foolish, even dangerous idea... Now, not so much.
ppragman
FLIPY FLAPS!
Everybody acts like the technology isn't there right now - right now I'd say it's more political will and money. Look at how many single pilot business jets there are out there today, the only ones I see falling out of the sky regularly are the owner operator ones. If a Phenom 300 can go nearly 2000NM at FL450 I don't see a lot of compelling reasons why there couldn't be a single pilot airliner.
Soku39
Well-Known Member
I am unsure how people can watch an autonomous attack drone fly a pattern around the boat and land on the 3 wire with zero human interaction and come up with the conclusion that the technology isn't there, the denial is simply beyond me.
Joshwa
Well-Known Member
So we're just going to fly to places with CAT III ILS approaches. Sure...
Image recognition on computers is utterly awful. I'll start worrying when it can fly a visual into somewhere with just a crappy VOR or NDB approach. Or do the circling approach into Carcassonne. &c. &c.
The financial investment required to develop RNP approaches or stick CAT III in everywhere you might possibly want to fly to is colossal to say the least. I reckon 40-50 years soonest, by which time the grandchildren will be bored of my rubbish flying stories.
Image recognition on computers is utterly awful. I'll start worrying when it can fly a visual into somewhere with just a crappy VOR or NDB approach. Or do the circling approach into Carcassonne. &c. &c.
The financial investment required to develop RNP approaches or stick CAT III in everywhere you might possibly want to fly to is colossal to say the least. I reckon 40-50 years soonest, by which time the grandchildren will be bored of my rubbish flying stories.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
http://www.aeronautics.nasa.gov/pdf/aviation_week_april2011.pdf
On page 8 there is what looks like a single pilot cockpit. They are talking about the next generation of airliners. That article is pretty old now. I agree with Soku39. It isn't a matter of if but when.
On page 8 there is what looks like a single pilot cockpit. They are talking about the next generation of airliners. That article is pretty old now. I agree with Soku39. It isn't a matter of if but when.
ppragman
FLIPY FLAPS!
Single pilot will happen a lot sooner than people think. Then after awhile - no pilot. In the future, there's not going to be a crummy VOR or NDB into places - it'll all be a GPS, with vertical and lateral guidance all the way down. GPS is amazingly accurate, and look at all the places we've built RNAV GPS approaches to 250' and 1SM into gravel runways throughout Alaska! This is coming.
I'm convinced I'll get a career out of aviation in one way shape or form, luckily, with most of my career being single pilot I might be competitive for the airline jobs of the future 10 to 15 years from now
- but my boys probably wouldn't be able to as pilots unless they elect to fly beavers their whole lives (which is is arguably a better career path in a lot of ways).
z987k
Well-Known Member
Statistically single engine is a lot safer than single pilot.
We can build an lpv to a lake.Single pilot will happen a lot sooner than people think. Then after awhile - no pilot. In the future, there's not going to be a crummy VOR or NDB into places - it'll all be a GPS, with vertical and lateral guidance all the way down. GPS is amazingly accurate, and look at all the places we've built RNAV GPS approaches to 250' and 1SM into gravel runways throughout Alaska! This is coming.
I'm convinced I'll get a career out of aviation in one way shape or form, luckily, with most of my career being single pilot I might be competitive for the airline jobs of the future 10 to 15 years from now
USMCmech
Well-Known Member
Despite what the video I shared said, I don't think passenger airplanes will ever go completely unmaned. Normal flying ops can easily be modeled, but abnormal ops still require human input.
However, I can totally see single pilot airliners before I retire. I also think ATC will become a data driven system with a voice backup in near future.
However, I can totally see single pilot airliners before I retire. I also think ATC will become a data driven system with a voice backup in near future.
ppragman
FLIPY FLAPS!
True, but I don't think that there will be the money to support building a certified LPV to every lake and gravel bar in Alaska. That's the rub.
EDIT: Also, I'd be interested in looking at the stats for single-engine turbine vs. multi-engine turbine under 135 (to exclude "owner operators") for that too.
🦈💜
Well-Known Member
Even the best autonomous aircraft are a still just a few unrelated glitches away from a fiery end. There are several points that must be passed to start down this road, and they're not as near as you might think: First and most significantly, the line must be crossed where automation is less expensive than pilots*. Right now pilots are quite inexpensive. Second, the automation must be safer than manned aircraft (or within some reasonable buffer). Third, the automatic systems need the ability to troubleshoot unpredicted systems failures and determine how to proceed. Fourth, there needs to be security in place commensurate with the risk, which is huge. In the industry we say there is no single system that can defend against a determined attacker. In reality, what we mean is that if someone really wants to get in, they'll get in. There are all sorts of attacks, both technical and soft, that could be leveraged against GPS, air traffic control, aircraft systems, etc. Even the protocols designed with security in mind use only relatively weak security.
In the end, as someone said earlier, computers are very bad at some types of recognition and correlation at which humans have evolved to excel, and in the end the human is at once the strongest and weakest link in the security chain. No code is perfect. No encryption is perfect. No security is perfect. No human interface is perfect. No protocol is (as of yet) invulnerable to attack. But for now, we have two relatively inexpensive sets of eyes in the cockpit watching for anomalous routings, instructions, other aircraft, birds, unforecast meteorological phenomena, systems failures and so on.
So do I think it's possible pilotless airliners will come to be? Unfortunately, yes; when two of the above conditions are met, acceptance may come. Right now there's a war of public opinion, and pilots are definitively on the back side of it any way you look at it. (Except in remote areas, where the pilot is still well-considered)
Do I think it will occur soon? I sincerely doubt it. At the moment there's well and truly no need. If you had the choice of buying a seven million dollar power control system to tightly regulate the line power coming in to a facility and switch over to generators if it should fall, or of hiring three people (working in shifts for 24/7 coverage) at $6.25/hr to do the same, and the differences in output were insignificant, which would you choose?
You might use the threat of buying the power control unit to keep those workers at low wages, but in the end you know that you've got at least 50-90 years of profit, which will probably easily outlive the power control system's lifecycle by a factor of four.
-Fox
In the end, as someone said earlier, computers are very bad at some types of recognition and correlation at which humans have evolved to excel, and in the end the human is at once the strongest and weakest link in the security chain. No code is perfect. No encryption is perfect. No security is perfect. No human interface is perfect. No protocol is (as of yet) invulnerable to attack. But for now, we have two relatively inexpensive sets of eyes in the cockpit watching for anomalous routings, instructions, other aircraft, birds, unforecast meteorological phenomena, systems failures and so on.
So do I think it's possible pilotless airliners will come to be? Unfortunately, yes; when two of the above conditions are met, acceptance may come. Right now there's a war of public opinion, and pilots are definitively on the back side of it any way you look at it. (Except in remote areas, where the pilot is still well-considered)
Do I think it will occur soon? I sincerely doubt it. At the moment there's well and truly no need. If you had the choice of buying a seven million dollar power control system to tightly regulate the line power coming in to a facility and switch over to generators if it should fall, or of hiring three people (working in shifts for 24/7 coverage) at $6.25/hr to do the same, and the differences in output were insignificant, which would you choose?
You might use the threat of buying the power control unit to keep those workers at low wages, but in the end you know that you've got at least 50-90 years of profit, which will probably easily outlive the power control system's lifecycle by a factor of four.
-Fox
z987k
Well-Known Member
Didn't know you guys bought 99s.
I disagree. In a single pilot airline, you basically would only be a system monitor. Much like a UAV operator. Just at the front of the tube instead of on the ground. The capability is already there. The reliability and social acceptance aren't.
As for the comment about "elevator opetstors, etc." That's a very unrealistic comparison. 50 plus people won't die in an ekevator, single operator trains have "dead mans" switches, etc. Explain how that would work at 36,000 feet?
E
Eric Bohn
Guest
"Fewer pilots per airplane is really on the minds of airline executives today, but [is] not much talked about.”
http://www.airspacemag.com/daily-planet/future-air-travel-seen-mit-180953245/?no-ist
Image recognition today is very good.
I think we'll see pilotless cargo operations within the next 15-25 years, but I have a hard time thinking that we'll see pilotless operations with passengers in that timeframe. I think single pilot airliners will fly in the next 15-20 years.
http://www.airspacemag.com/daily-planet/future-air-travel-seen-mit-180953245/?no-ist
Image recognition today is very good.
I think we'll see pilotless cargo operations within the next 15-25 years, but I have a hard time thinking that we'll see pilotless operations with passengers in that timeframe. I think single pilot airliners will fly in the next 15-20 years.
Proof, or it's hearsay.
Edit to add: I say that because I've seen it said a lot, but have never actually seen proof.
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Autothrust Blue
Welcome aboard the Washington State Ferries
tl;dr: Computers are fast, accurate, and stupid. Humans are slow, inaccurate, but brilliant. Together, we are a wonderful combination.
I'm confident it will happen, those of us not comfortable with the concept will fight it. After it has been done " generational shift " will take over and those brought up with it in place will just accept it as normal... For the most part.
Don't believe it? Ask someone that grew up interested in airplanes in the post navigator time frame, then ask those growing up in the post FE time frame.
The loss of Navigators and Flight Engineers is not a good comparison. From a Systems Integration standpoint look at DC9s. They didn't have a FE and were designed way back when?
23 years ago there was no FE on DC9s.