Scott Kirby's Frontier and Spirit Prediction

[SeanD]

He said they aren't getting repeat customers. The pax that fly on those airlines don't care about customer service if they are getting $200 round trip flights and front seats to the occasional aisle brawls.

Low-cost airlines Spirit, Frontier ‘going out of business’ over poor customer service, United CEO says

The outspoken CEO said that Spirit and Frontier were built on a “flawed business model” that skirts customer service.

nypost.com

 

[CoffeeIcePapers]

The main problem is the lack of frequency between city pairs. If you get cancelled on a ULCC, it will take you an additional 2-3 days to get home. There's only so many one and done customers out there.

 

[CFIT99]

as a former F9'er, the customer service was extremely cringe, I overheard one interaction with a customer and a gate agent which the GA literally said..."only 4 days late?....but you did get here!"

 

[Murdoughnut]

He's spent the past year talking to cost convergence, which is probably the bigger story here. ULCCs aren't seeing the CASM advantage they once did, which means fares are reaching closer to parity with the legacies. The legacies helped themselves by introducing basic economy fares. In fact, it's been the two ends of the fare spectrum - basic econ and premium that have been driving carrier yields the past year.

While a consumer might fly a ULCC when it's a $100 fare differential, that calculus changes when it goes down to $20. Why pay $12 for McDonald's when you can get Chipotle for $15?

 

[CFIT99]

He's spent the past year talking to cost convergence, which is probably the bigger story here. ULCCs aren't seeing the CASM advantage they once did, which means fares are reaching closer to parity with the legacies. The legacies helped themselves by introducing basic economy fares. In fact, it's been the two ends of the fare spectrum - basic econ and premium that have been driving carrier yields the past year.

While a consumer might fly a ULCC when it's a $100 fare differential, that calculus changes when it goes down to $20. Why pay $12 for McDonald's when you can get Chipotle for $15?

nailed it..

*Jesus meme*

 

[Boots2Wings]

Sad face.

 

[Box hauler]

He's spent the past year talking to cost convergence, which is probably the bigger story here. ULCCs aren't seeing the CASM advantage they once did, which means fares are reaching closer to parity with the legacies. The legacies helped themselves by introducing basic economy fares. In fact, it's been the two ends of the fare spectrum - basic econ and premium that have been driving carrier yields the past year.

While a consumer might fly a ULCC when it's a $100 fare differential, that calculus changes when it goes down to $20. Why pay $12 for McDonald's when you can get Chipotle for $15?

IMO, either Spirit or Frontier is gonna have to shift their model or they’re going to die. I hate to say that as someone with all of their eggs in the NK basket but it’s true. If we don’t create a new identity it’s only a matter of time before we “ un-alive “ ourselves. Cough cough, 2025.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Wouldn't have been an issue if THIS administration let the merger through. But no, they had to sue to stop it.


Fact remains the big 4 control ~85% of the country's capacity. The remaining 15% cannot be 8 different carriers. Alaska, Hawaiian, jetBlue, Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Sun Country, Breeze.

The remaining 15% need to consolidate to at least get the economies of scale to compete with the big 4. Alaska/Hawaiian, jetBlue/Spirit, Frontier/Allegiant, and one more combo with the remaining carriers. The final end state of this country should be the big 4 airlines (AA, DL, UA, SW) , and 4 large national carriers (AS/HAL, B6/NK, F9/ALGT, and one more).

 

[Box hauler]

Wouldn't have been an issue if THIS administration let the merger through. But no, they had to sue to stop it.


Fact remains the big 4 control ~85% of the country's capacity. The remaining 15% cannot be 8 different carriers. Alaska, Hawaiian, jetBlue, Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Sun Country, Breeze.

The remaining 15% need to consolidate to at least get the economies of scale to compete with the big 4. Alaska/Hawaiian, jetBlue/Spirit, Frontier/Allegiant, and one more combo with the remaining carriers. The final end state of this country should be the big 4 airlines (AA, DL, UA, SW) , and 4 large national carriers (AS/HAL, B6/NK, F9/ALGT, and one more).

I mean I don’t usually agree with you, but I definitely do here. That said, after “ tax reform” both parties can eat a giant helping of dk.

 

[scooter2525]

Why pay $12 for McDonald's when you can get Chipotle for $15?

Is F9 flying helicopters and UA aircraft?

 

[luke3]

It doesn't help that at F9 they like to outsource the ground crew staffing at so many stations. I found the on board service to generally be excellent, not so much so on the ground. Lots of DGAF attitude from contracted gate agents since they just worked for a 3rd party vendor and had no accountability to F9.

 

[killbilly]

It doesn't help that at F9 they like to outsource the ground crew staffing at so many stations. I found the on board service to generally be excellent, not so much so on the ground. Lots of DGAF attitude from contracted gate agents since they just worked for a 3rd party vendor and had no accountability to F9.

Everyone does this, though. When I was at the last place it was Swissport at IAD, whereas we had own-company/parent-label ground crew in IAH. The difference was night and day.

At the current place, the contract/business partner services are better than they were when I was at the regional. Not a LOT better, but better.

"Business Partners" is the du jour phrasing for outsourced services these days.

 

[bimmerphile]

Everyone does this, though. When I was at the last place it was Swissport at IAD, whereas we had own-company/parent-label ground crew in IAH. The difference was night and day.

At the current place, the contract/business partner services are better than they were when I was at the regional. Not a LOT better, but better.

"Business Partners" is the du jour phrasing for outsourced services these days.

yes but i think the post you are replying to is referencing customer facing employees, which were UA gate agents at the hubs

outstations on the UGE side, were a mixed bag

 

[BobDDuck]

Like @Murdoughnut said, Basic Economy fares killed the ULCC model. Couple that with a self induced low RASM, and rapidly increasing CASM, there aren't a lot of options.

 

[killbilly]

yes but i think the post you are replying to is referencing customer facing employees, which were UA gate agents at the hubs

outstations on the UGE side, were a mixed bag

Can’t speak for you guys but we’ve got both.

 

[Maximilian_Jenius]

I knew that I would never fly Frontier after they got rid of their human customer service. I'd be incredibly pissed if my flight was canceled, but even more pissed, if I had to chat with an AI bot, that can only reply with canned answers. Also their flights offer few directs and lots of 10-18 hr. layovers. Nope.

 

[Eagle421flyer]

IMO, either Spirit or Frontier is gonna have to shift their model or they’re going to die. I hate to say that as someone with all of their eggs in the NK basket but it’s true. If we don’t create a new identity it’s only a matter of time before we “ un-alive “ ourselves. Cough cough, 2025.

As someone else at spirit, it’s going to be us. At least f9 has (somewhat) been making money we have just been flushing it down the toilet. I also have to ask why our management is still here? If his idea to “save” spirit is to attract business customers we’re doomed for sure (pretty sure we already are, that would be a final nail in the coffin).


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[derg]

As someone else at spirit, it’s going to be us. At least f9 has (somewhat) been making money we have just been flushing it down the toilet. I also have to ask why our management is still here? If his idea to “save” spirit is to attract business customers we’re doomed for sure (pretty sure we already are, that would be a final nail in the coffin).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

They oddly spent money on this at PAPA last weekend:

I'm sure they had already committed the money and personnel to it but it's a little "cringe" considering what's going on.

 

[SeanD]

I think F9 could possibly introduce a first/business class type of option or maybe bite off Breezes “Nice, Nicer, Nicest” strategy. At least at this point F9 doesn’t have as much of a negative reputation as Spirit yet.

 

[NovemberEcho]

Can’t wait to hear his explanations for the • show EWR is going to be in 6 weeks