Rising costs and the future of flight training.

[Texasspilot]

We all know that fight training is incredibly expensive. Most people dropping between 40-100K on thier training/degree. I was thinking last night that if the FAA initiates user fees and the continued increase in gas price when does the flight training stop.

If people are already paying 120+ per hour what happens when gas goes to 7 a gallon and it costs an extra 20 a flight just to operate the airplane for user fees.

Also at what point does this slow the number of applicants into the professional arena?

Discuss...

 

[B767Driver]

Even without the above factored in...the state of the industry must be mitigating the number of high quality applicants entering the field. I dearly love flying and my chosen profession, but if I was 17 again and looking at a good return on my educational investment...I'm not sure I would go into aviation.

With excellent high school grades and SAT/ACT scores...I'd probably be looking into the medical field or some type of specialized engineering field. This would provide a challenging career with numerous opportunities.

But aviation will probably still continue to attract lots of new entrants. Unfortunately, I don't feel they will be the quality we've seen in the past. The downward spiral in the profession will continue because those who have chosen to remain/enter the profession will "do whatever it takes" to stay in the cockpit...and will accept whatever pay is offered to enter the profession or to keep their jobs.

As we're witnessing now...high quality individuals are leaving the top of the profession for more stable career opportunities...and less experienced/qualified applicants are undercutting the rest of the industry for advancement opportunities. This type of environment does not provide the platform required for most individuals looking for a career that rewards and motivates people for achievement and satisfaction in their profession.

 

[tonyw]

767, do you think at a certain point, the worm will turn? Demand for qualified pilots will, if your assertion is correct, exceed supply. And then we could see things change for the better.

We can hope!

 

[pilot602]

767, do you think at a certain point, the worm will turn? Demand for qualified pilots will, if your assertion is correct, exceed supply. And then we could see things change for the better.

We can hope!

This very thing is on the horizon I believe and it's our last hope that things will change for the better.

 

[B767Driver]

767, do you think at a certain point, the worm will turn? Demand for qualified pilots will, if your assertion is correct, exceed supply. And then we could see things change for the better.

We can hope!

I don't know.

Right now there are so many ways to become a pilot. The supply chain is tapped from all over the place. There is almost no quality control over entrants for pilot certification. Literally...anyone can try and try and try and eventually earn their certification.

This bothers me...because I think there should be some measure of control...a baseline aptitude...for those with professional aspirations. While anyone can fly an airplane...not everyone has the capability to consistently make good decisions, lead a flight crew and communicate clearly and professionally. Those who possess these human factors skills are the ones who will safely lead our industry into the future.

Look at the behavior of the Pinnacle crew who crashed in their RJ. This is the type of person that needs to be weeded out of the cockpit. There is a correlation on easy access to the cockpit and this type of behavior style.

I would like to see the FAA institute some measure of aptitude restrictions on applicants for commercial/atp certification. Let's say if you fail the checkride 3 times...then you cannot reapply for 3 to 5 years, etc. Or increase the minimum qualifications for Part 121 crewmembers to 1500 hours. Or give an aptitude screening test much like the military administers...or for air traffic controllers.

Before you can begin training for a commercial pilot certificate...you have to score a certain percentage on a government administered aptitude test.

Obviously, you want to work in a profession that attracts the best and the brightest to the field. We've already seen that cost triumphs experience in terms of pilot hiring. And there is very little aptitude screening in terms of pilot training. Anyone could walk into a flight school tomorrow and be a commercial pilot in short order. Nobody is getting into medical school without a baseline aptitude test score.

Without some controls and restrictions on the supply of pilots...I don't see much change in the supply chain. When the high quality applicants dry up...companies will encourage private pilot Warrior drivers who have 1000 hours over the last 25 years to earn a commercial certificate and come to work for them.

The most bothersome part for me...is that I want to work with high quality, highly educated, intelligent professionals. Right now I'm afforded that privilege. In the future...I'm not so sure.

Regardless, we all need to work hard to ensure that the pilots making it into the cockpit are disciplined and well prepared for their duty. That's a responsibility that we should all take seriously.

 

[MFT1Air]

Even without the above factored in...the state of the industry must be mitigating the number of high quality applicants entering the field. I dearly love flying and my chosen profession, but if I was 17 again and looking at a good return on my educational investment...I'm not sure I would go into aviation.

With excellent high school grades and SAT/ACT scores...I'd probably be looking into the medical field or some type of specialized engineering field. This would provide a challenging career with numerous opportunities.

But aviation will probably still continue to attract lots of new entrants. Unfortunately, I don't feel they will be the quality we've seen in the past. The downward spiral in the profession will continue because those who have chosen to remain/enter the profession will "do whatever it takes" to stay in the cockpit...and will accept whatever pay is offered to enter the profession or to keep their jobs.

As we're witnessing now...high quality individuals are leaving the top of the profession for more stable career opportunities...and less experienced/qualified applicants are undercutting the rest of the industry for advancement opportunities. This type of environment does not provide the platform required for most individuals looking for a career that rewards and motivates people for achievement and satisfaction in their profession.

Interesting perspective. Let me query you if I may. What occupations do you perceive are "stable professions?" I'm hard pressed to identify, aside from sales and the oil industry, what occupation can pay large dollars and have a comfortable retirement plan laid out for them simply by doing the time. I live/interact in a predominately engineering atmosphere with stresses of the aviation profession also evidenced in these professions as well.

Just curious.

 

[MFT1Air]

I don't know.

Right now there are so many ways to become a pilot. The supply chain is tapped from all over the place. There is almost no quality control over entrants for pilot certification. Literally...anyone can try and try and try and eventually earn their certification.

This bothers me...because I think there should be some measure of control...a baseline aptitude...for those with professional aspirations. While anyone can fly an airplane...not everyone has the capability to consistently make good decisions, lead a flight crew and communicate clearly and professionally. Those who possess these human factors skills are the ones who will safely lead our industry into the future.

Look at the behavior of the Pinnacle crew who crashed in their RJ. This is the type of person that needs to be weeded out of the cockpit. There is a correlation on easy access to the cockpit and this type of behavior style.

I would like to see the FAA institute some measure of aptitude restrictions on applicants for commercial/atp certification. Let's say if you fail the checkride 3 times...then you cannot reapply for 3 to 5 years, etc. Or increase the minimum qualifications for Part 121 crewmembers to 1500 hours. Or give an aptitude screening test much like the military administers...or for air traffic controllers.

Before you can begin training for a commercial pilot certificate...you have to score a certain percentage on a government administered aptitude test.

Obviously, you want to work in a profession that attracts the best and the brightest to the field. We've already seen that cost triumphs experience in terms of pilot hiring. And there is very little aptitude screening in terms of pilot training. Anyone could walk into a flight school tomorrow and be a commercial pilot in short order. Nobody is getting into medical school without a baseline aptitude test score.

Without some controls and restrictions on the supply of pilots...I don't see much change in the supply chain. When the high quality applicants dry up...companies will encourage private pilot Warrior drivers who have 1000 hours over the last 25 years to earn a commercial certificate and come to work for them.

The most bothersome part for me...is that I want to work with high quality, highly educated, intelligent professionals. Right now I'm afforded that privilege. In the future...I'm not so sure.

Regardless, we all need to work hard to ensure that the pilots making it into the cockpit are disciplined and well prepared for their duty. That's a responsibility that we should all take seriously.

OK, you're absolutely right, but guess what? You know in any profession, those bad apples, doctors, lawyers, nurses, prevalent in all other "professions" as well. Remember the EXXON Valdez incident? An alcoholic captain? I argue this with co-workers all the time. Dealing with so called "experts" in their field, what is the cream of the crop? What is "perfection?"

 

[E_Dawg]

I think my flying job's alright! It's easy, I don't do it very often (compared to other jobs I've had in the past), and when I get home from work I don't have to think about it anymore!

I do agree, though, that some kind of minimum number of hours should be put in place as to who can occupy the right seat.

 

[tonyw]

aside from sales and the oil industry, what occupation can pay large dollars and have a comfortable retirement plan laid out for them simply by doing the time.

If you think sales is a profession that is stable and that you can succeed in simply by doing the time, you are mistaken.

There are three things that affect a salesperson's success -- the market you are selling into, the product you are selling, and the talent and effort of the salesperson.

Give a good salesperson a mediocre product and a declining market, and he will struggle.

On the other hand, give a mediocre salesperson a good product and a growing market, and he will do well.

And markets constantly change so there is very little stability. A salesperson is considered only as good as his last reporting period!

767, I think the guys who take the time and effort to get their commercial kind of help weed out some of the dregs. Obviously not all, but it does take a significant amount of effort and dedication to get there with all the obstacles real life throws at you. Trust me, I know, he says as he types with one hand due to shoulder surgery and right before he goes and practices approaches in flight sim!

 

[PanJet]

This bothers me...because I think there should be some measure of control...a baseline aptitude...for those with professional aspirations. While anyone can fly an airplane...not everyone has the capability to consistently make good decisions, lead a flight crew and communicate clearly and professionally. Those who possess these human factors skills are the ones who will safely lead our industry into the future.

I completely agree with you. Aviation seems to be one of those fields that should be considered professional, however it seems as if some very non-professional pilots can slide by. Some other occupations such as medicine or law or engineering seem to have better luck at weeding out unprofessional people.

For now though, I believe that we will have to rely on the professional opinions of those doing the hiring, for they are the last call when it comes to deciding who's professional enough to get the job done.

This will become more the case with all professions as education becomes more and more standardized. In many public schools today, a valedictorian cannot even be recognized as such because it might offend someone who didn't fair so well in classes. There is no more reward for excelling because it's "unfair" to those who don't excel. Because of this, I believe we'll see more and more of the burden being placed on the people who make decisions regarding college entrance, scholarships, and finally and most decisively those people who make decisions on job interviews. It's the case with aviation just as much as anywhere else.

 

[DE727UPS]

"Or increase the minimum qualifications for Part 121 crewmembers to 1500 hours"

Now that I like. A step in the right direction which will be found highly unpopular by the JC masses. But I like it.....

 

[slushie]

"Or increase the minimum qualifications for Part 121 crewmembers to 1500 hours"

Now that I like. A step in the right direction which will be found highly unpopular by the JC masses. But I like it.....

Yeah, my pilot certificate will include the words "c/o _____ homeless shelter"

 

[triplec76]

I agree with your aptitude baselines for professional pilot candidates. To start, Gleim, ASA, etc shouldn't be allowed to publish knowledge base Q&A's for the commercial and ATP. Once you are past the instrument and wanting to fly professionally, I think it should become a lot harder to study and be prepared. Unfortunately it would be really hard on beginning guys if hours were raised much more than what they already are. The flight hour requirements are generally for insurance anyway, and at this point most guys aren't even competitive since there are guys out there with thousands of hours looking for jobs that went to 500 hour guys 10 years ago.

I think the FAA does take all of this into consideration and I wouldn't be surprised if we see some major overhaul of the professional pilot system if/when demand ever does exceed supply in the pilot market sometime in the future.

I don't know.

Right now there are so many ways to become a pilot. The supply chain is tapped from all over the place. There is almost no quality control over entrants for pilot certification. Literally...anyone can try and try and try and eventually earn their certification.

This bothers me...because I think there should be some measure of control...a baseline aptitude...for those with professional aspirations. While anyone can fly an airplane...not everyone has the capability to consistently make good decisions, lead a flight crew and communicate clearly and professionally. Those who possess these human factors skills are the ones who will safely lead our industry into the future.

Look at the behavior of the Pinnacle crew who crashed in their RJ. This is the type of person that needs to be weeded out of the cockpit. There is a correlation on easy access to the cockpit and this type of behavior style.

I would like to see the FAA institute some measure of aptitude restrictions on applicants for commercial/atp certification. Let's say if you fail the checkride 3 times...then you cannot reapply for 3 to 5 years, etc. Or increase the minimum qualifications for Part 121 crewmembers to 1500 hours. Or give an aptitude screening test much like the military administers...or for air traffic controllers.

Before you can begin training for a commercial pilot certificate...you have to score a certain percentage on a government administered aptitude test.

Obviously, you want to work in a profession that attracts the best and the brightest to the field. We've already seen that cost triumphs experience in terms of pilot hiring. And there is very little aptitude screening in terms of pilot training. Anyone could walk into a flight school tomorrow and be a commercial pilot in short order. Nobody is getting into medical school without a baseline aptitude test score.

Without some controls and restrictions on the supply of pilots...I don't see much change in the supply chain. When the high quality applicants dry up...companies will encourage private pilot Warrior drivers who have 1000 hours over the last 25 years to earn a commercial certificate and come to work for them.

The most bothersome part for me...is that I want to work with high quality, highly educated, intelligent professionals. Right now I'm afforded that privilege. In the future...I'm not so sure.

Regardless, we all need to work hard to ensure that the pilots making it into the cockpit are disciplined and well prepared for their duty. That's a responsibility that we should all take seriously.

 

[deserteaglle]

Anyone ever sit and really listen to the valedictorian's speech?

Rarely are they unsheltered, world-wise individuals. Their work habits are commendable, but other aspects are lacking, as is to be expected by someone who has to work so hard to excel in one area at such a critical age. When you're concentrating on all of the honor's homework, and getting the highest grades in the school, there's a lot of things you just don't have time to worry about, and I think in many cases it's the social aspect, which deals more with getting in touch with your own personality.

Then at the opposite end of the spectrum, there are those who do nothing but communicate with others. They are good people people, but they often lack a respectable work ethic.

Those at both ends of the spectrum "grow up" within the next 10 years and become a bit more well-rounded (hopefully), but there are those who were in the middle the whole time, who have social skills, and decent work ethic. I would say this is actually the majority of all people.

The point is intelligence doesn't make a good person, or a good pilot for that matter.

The reality is aviation is very much NOT like the medical field.

There's alot of people smarter(Intelligence-wise) than me, that couldn't ever even imagine flying a plane, and at the same time I know there's alot of people out there who aren't smarter(Intelligence-wise) than me who could put me to shame.(Not to say that that would be a great accomplishment to best a low hour pilot like myself)

Doctors need not necessarily be good with people, but they must be intelligent and must be able to understand the complexities of the human body like the majority of us cannot.

Pilots on the other hand just have to have good people skills, be able to fly the damn airplane, and not be complete idiots. I'm sure everyone knows some really smart pilots, but how many do you know that are more than smart to the genius level, and great pilots, I'm betting very very few if any.

I personally don't feel like the FAA needs to be regulating the intelligence of pilots any more than they do know, it's my belief that that responsibility should lie with the employer. As much as pilots usually don't like the way employers run things, do you really want some more impersonal govt. standard FARs running EVERYTHING. I would think not.

If all employers would only hire good pilots, and all pilots would demand a respectable wage, then there would only be good pilots, and they would all get paid well. But that's not gonna happen, and abviously the beliefs of a few pilots isn't going to make much of a difference anyway.

To end this mindless rabble, I'll just say that in my experience getting worked up over your own opinion is a fruitless endeavor, and you'll be much better off to excel with your unique skills and just deal with what you have no power over.

Now feel free to continue with the norm.

 

[desertdog71]

If you borrow $60-100K to get a job that pays $19K. Then you deserve what you get. Its no secret that this industry doesn't pay very well to start out, and everyone knows that pay is declining.

That being said, many people make that choice anyways. Should I feel sorry for them? HELL NO!!!!

They made a choice, so live with it, and quit whining about it.

Just remember next time you are on Cheaptickets.com trying to buy a ticket somewhere for next to nothing prices. That is where the problem is. The consumer as always will dictate a businesses success. Until people start paying more to fly, there will be no relief.

You knew what you were getting into, or you at least should have known.

 

[deserteaglle]

If you borrow $60-100K to get a job that pays $19K. Then you deserve what you get. Its no secret that this industry doesn't pay very well to start out, and everyone knows that pay is declining.

That being said, many people make that choice anyways. Should I feel sorry for them? HELL NO!!!!

They made a choice, so live with it, and quit whining about it.

Just remember next time you are on Cheaptickets.com trying to buy a ticket somewhere for next to nothing prices. That is where the problem is. The consumer as always will dictate a businesses success. Until people start paying more to fly, there will be no relief.

You knew what you were getting into, or you at least should have known.

The realness of this post is touching. :buck:

I'm pretty much in accord with anything that says, "Quitcherbitchin' and deal with it." :rawk:

 

[derg]

I think the turning point would have been if the Pinnacle flight had 50 passengers onboard.

The media would have been on that like white on rice.

 

[flyover]

As we're witnessing now...high quality individuals are leaving the top of the profession for more stable career opportunities...and less experienced/qualified applicants are undercutting the rest of the industry for advancement opportunities. This type of environment does not provide the platform required for most individuals looking for a career that rewards and motivates people for achievement and satisfaction in their profession.

This seems to be a very subjective analysis that you are pushing as if it was fact. I can't help but think of the many captains I flew with who were hired with less than 1,000 hours of time. When I was hired in 1979 it was hard to find military pilots who had more than 1,000 hours. And through the decades the one thing that was standard ops was all the hand wringing about how "they just aren't hiring 'em as good as I am any more".

Prediction: Among the challenges facing the industry in the coming years won't be an influx of "unqualified" pilots. Although, as has been the case since they started requiring co-pilots, they won't be as "qualified" as the guys already there.

 

[flyover]

Just remember next time you are on Cheaptickets.com trying to buy a ticket somewhere for next to nothing prices. That is where the problem is. The consumer as always will dictate a businesses success. Until people start paying more to fly, there will be no relief.

Ah yes, and once again the blame goes to (drumroll please) the stupid, idiotic customers who take the offer of the cheaper fares. If we can just get rid of the customers.

 

[derg]

Please tell me you're not advocating that we all 'roll over and take it like a champ'.