Retire With Military or Get Out?

Hacker15e

Hacker15e

Who am I? Where are my pants?
Over on APC, there was a thread that posed the question as to if a current military pilot should get out ASAP and start flying for an airline, or stay in untl his commitment is up.

Reading this thread reminded me of some spreadsheets I saw about 10 years ago that compared the earnings potential of a pilot who gets out of the military as soon as he can and gets hired at an airline against the guy who stays in and retires at 20.

My memory of the actual numbers is vague, but I absolutely recall that there was a financial benefit in the long run of getting out of the military instead of staying until 20.

It got me to thinking, wondering if the significant drop in Major Airline pay over the last 10 years had significantly changed anything. So I jammed on an Excel spreadsheet for a little while yesterday and made my own comparison.

Here are the two posts I made over on APC showing the results:

SCENARIOS:

1. Stay in the AF, take the bonus, make O-4 and retire as an O-4 at 20, then hired at SWA (with AF retirement pay)

2. Stay in the AF, take the bonus, make O-4 and O-5 and retire as an O-5 at 20, then hired at SWA (with AF retirement pay)

3. Leave AF at 10, get hired by SWA

ASSUMPTIONS:
FY2007 USAF pay scale before taxes
BAS/BAH is the "average" BAH for FY07 plus std officer BAS
10-year UPT commitment (so age 31/32 is the "break" point)
Promotion to Maj at 10 years in scenario 1 and 2
Promotion to Lt Col at 16 years in scenario 2
Make gates to maintain ACIP at FY07 rate in scenario 1 and 2
Took "pilot bonus" at current 25K/year in scenario 1 and 2

SWA 2007 pay scale as shown on APC
Upgrade to Capt at 7 years
78 hours/month, as described on APC's SWA page
Fly till age 65

The results? I'm surprised by what I see:

TOTAL AGE 32 to 65 EARNINGS:

Scenario 1: $5,728,034.00
Scenario 2: $5,861,405.84
Scenario 3: $5,535,504.00

Obviously this is not a gnat's ass accurate number, especially because of SWA's trips-for-pay system, and the fact that APC's hourly rates aren't a direct correlation...but it's as close as I could get over my lunch break.
Click to expand...

I ran the same spreadsheet, this time with CAL's numbers from APC.

Assumptions this time were 757 FO to 757 CAPT, along with 72 hour min (all numbers from APC's CAL page). Doesn't include any per diem, which can obviously make a difference.

Same three scenarios, different airline:

TOTAL AGE 32 to 65 EARNINGS:

Scenario 1: 5,046,482.00
Scenario 2: 5,179,853.84
Scenario 3: 4,607,712.00

Hmmmmm....getting much more interesting now.
Click to expand...

So, what do you guys think? It's pretty much neck-in-neck. Staying in until retirement is no longer the bad option...and, depending on the airline, it appears to even be the BETTER option.
 
Personally, I'd suggest staying until 20 for both the retirement and health insurance.

You can crunch all the numbers you want, but the overriding factor is the stability of the military retirement benefit.
 
I walked at 10 with nothing but VA bennies and a lifetime of good memories. If your wife and family can handle another 10 years of madness, then I say stay. If you have a hardship tour coming up in the next 10 years, or now that your family is established and if the wife is ready to put down some roots so that the kids can have a normal life...I say walk.

The healthcare benefits for retired military is shaping into the same thing that everyone on the outside is facing now in day. They keep jacking up tricare deductibles and messing with things, because now the bean counters have made their way into that territory now. You might want to talk with some of the guys that don't have access to a military base and are retired, and have to use tricare just as a civilian would use their medical insurance.

I personally couldn't have imagined another 10 years in, after my last "tattle tale" deploying billet. My marriage would have never made it.
For me, getting out was one of the best decisions that I have ever made.

If you can stay ANG or reserves and still be able to fly in the AF, then by all means, that would be the best of both worlds. Having the option to go back in full-time in the event that the economy goes into the crapper, is one hell of an insurance policy. If you do walk at 10, keeping that door open is the best insurance policy that you could ask for.

Just my .02.
 
Without rechecking and re-crunching all your numbers, my gut instinct is to say that if you can make 0-5 and retire at 20 thats what I would do.

About 8 years ago my brother in law, who is now an 0-5 and an XO at a navy base but not a pilot, had me run some numbers for him. After showing him how much more he would have to earn in the private sector for the next 8 years(he had 12 years in at the time) to make up for the loss of a military pension, he decided to stay in.

If, even after you calculate the present value of your future military pay and pension vs. airline pay without a military pension, the scenario 3 came out ahead, the security and stability of having a military pension cannot be overlooked,as Doug points out
 
Got out at 11 1/2 years and don't regret a thing and as for cash.. Well just depends on your airline/cummuting/guard/QOL/etc..

If the timing is right then you have to do what is right for your family.. I was looking at a desk job at sea.. Was not gonna let that happen..

I was told once that rule of thumb (based on old pay rates- pre 911), that year 17 was the magic number. If you got out before then you would out do the military retirement.

Last don't forget that you can drill in the guard.. You can plus up your income (20-35K). However, depends on how hard you work..

Good luck; it is a tough decision and don't just go on folks out theres word. Do your research. Make them show you their schedules, pay stubs, medical plans, work rules, the whole enchilada.. Word of mouth is just not good enough to make that kind of decision. See examples, in BLACK and WHITE..

Just my 2 pesos... BB
 
I'm with Chewie and Boom Boom on this one.

Honestly - it's all about your happiness - and the happiness of your family. If you really want to finish up the time in the AF - if you can deal with whatever assignment they choose to give you - if you and your family can deal with an unknown number of deployments - stay. If they give you pause, go. The money ain't important, bro.

I'm on terminal leave now with only 8 years left till retirement. Many people think I'm nuts for getting out - hell, I didn't even join the guard. Forget it, they aren't me and they aren't Kristen. I'd rather be happy (and alive!) than pulling a high-3 retirement.
 
Ian said it best! (at least in my opinion)

My commander already signed my papers (they haven't been processed yet) to transfer to the Reserves and double my commitment of 1.5 years, just so we can go where we (me, wife +2 runts) want NOW. But looking at the big picture, the reason we want out is so we CAN go where we want, when we want (with sacrifices of course) and not be tied to a base. I have 1.5 years to deal with deployments hanging over my head, but if I transfered, I'd have 3 years of worrying to do.

I am looking forward to flying for a living, becasue at least the longest bye-bye period to worry about is 2 weeks, and that's not till intl. trips.

IMO, the pay/insurance/whatever is NOT worth the peace of mind of being home with my family and having to put up with endless training days, rediculous waste-of-my-time Commander Calls, uniform inspections, deployments and military culture in general.

Some love the culture, though. To each his own.
 
Ian J said:
I'm with Chewie and Boom Boom on this one.

Honestly - it's all about your happiness - and the happiness of your family. If you really want to finish up the time in the AF - if you can deal with whatever assignment they choose to give you - if you and your family can deal with an unknown number of deployments - stay. If they give you pause, go. The money ain't important, bro.

I'm on terminal leave now with only 8 years left till retirement. Many people think I'm nuts for getting out - hell, I didn't even join the guard. Forget it, they aren't me and they aren't Kristen. I'd rather be happy (and alive!) than pulling a high-3 retirement.
Click to expand...

I agree with Ian, its all about happiness. In this day and time with deployments its not worth staying in just for the money, because you heart has to be in it to survive; that's definitely how things go wrong.

I thought about this, how would I feel right now if I was hurt or disabled and unable to start the second career that I wanted. I would be so bitter it would tear my life apart. When you wake up and you don't feel like working or getting stepped on as someone else climbs the ladder, its time to get out. For me 15 years and I'm done in November and I couldn't be happier. The times I missed with my kids still plagues me, you can't get that time back, its gone forever.

Also in ending, if the military beat you up bad enough you'll get the same benefits for life as the guy who retired with 20, it all depends on your health.
 
Sure, you might get hurt in the military. Or, you could go to your next physical and be grounded for some condition you never knew you had. Or, you could get hit by a ramp tug as you're walking to the jet. Or a car accident on the way home from the airport. Or...

Carpe Diem, either way. That's no way to live your life -- in fear of what might happen. There's no guarantee that a civilian job is going to be any safer than a military job. Hell, at least I get to wear a parachute and have an ejection seat in my current job in case I have that dual-engine flameout on takeoff, or end up electrical out above 30,000' of IMC, or any other of a number of crappy scenarios.

But, back to the topic...that's why I made the spreadsheet, because in the PAST you were a moron if you didn't leave and head to greener partures with a Major Airline -- financially it made the most sense by far.

Since it is basically a wash between the two at this point, many of you are right on track when you say that it all depends on what your lifestyle can handle.
 
Smartest thing I ever did was become a Naval Aviator...

Second smartest thing I ever did was get off of active duty as soon as I could...

Third smartest thing I ever did was join the reserves and get a reserve retirement...

YMMV!


Kevin
 
staplegun said:
Smartest thing I ever did was become a Naval Aviator...

Second smartest thing I ever did was get off of active duty as soon as I could...

Third smartest thing I ever did was join the reserves and get a reserve retirement...

YMMV!


Kevin
Click to expand...

Navy Reserve or AFRC?
 
Kevin's former SAC.

I'm kidding, I'm kidding! Nah, he's former Navy reserve. However, I never heard a single "Barnacle Bill" song during our 5-day CDG trip.
 
Can't tell you how many pilots I've flown with comment on my retirement pay and medical with subtle envy. "I wish I'd been smart enough to stay in the Reserves so I'd get that medical!" THe retirement pay was a lifesaver during my furlough, too.

Retired moron
 
staplegun said:
Smartest thing I ever did was become a Naval Aviator...

Second smartest thing I ever did was get off of active duty as soon as I could...

Third smartest thing I ever did was join the reserves and get a reserve retirement...

YMMV!


Kevin
Click to expand...

MDPilot said:
Can't tell you how many pilots I've flown with comment on my retirement pay and medical with subtle envy. "I wish I'd been smart enough to stay in the Reserves so I'd get that medical!" THe retirement pay was a lifesaver during my furlough, too.

Retired moron
Click to expand...

Honest question - would you guys have joined the reserves if you were in the Army/Marines, basically volunteering to be a second active force?

Another question: Do AF/Navy reservists deploy? If they truly only do the weekend a month - 2 weeks a year thing, where do I sign up? :)

Seriously - do you think the AF would take me in the reserves? Wouldn't even have to be a flying position.
 
Ian J said:
Honest question - would you guys have joined the reserves if you were in the Army/Marines, basically volunteering to be a second active force?
Click to expand...


In the current political/world climate? No.

I got off active duty in 1987, things were different then...

Another question: Do AF/Navy reservists deploy? If they truly only do the weekend a month - 2 weeks a year thing, where do I sign up? :)
Click to expand...

Yes, they deploy, but not like the Army. I flew C-9's and the Navy Reserve C-9 force was staffed for and able to carry out it's mission without activating squadrons. They activated 2 during Gulf War I and it was a mistake...

Air Force it depends on AMC or TACair etc., plus you've got the Air Guard in the mix - different animal.


Seriously - do you think the AF would take me in the reserves? Wouldn't even have to be a flying position.
Click to expand...


Talk to a reserve recruiter. In the past it was possible to do an inter-service transfer, I don't know about now...



Kevin
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top