Republic Airways is nearing a deal to buy Trans States

Consolidation is the likely outcome of the squeeze being fully felt all over the regional industry right now. It’s only going to get worse from here.

I have heard that American Airlines Group may be looking to go to a 100% wholly-owned regional lift within 5 years. And they aren’t going to do that by growing their current WOs (unless something drastically changes). I would expect to see another regional purchased and made an AAG WO.
 
Consolidation is the likely outcome of the squeeze being fully felt all over the regional industry right now. It’s only going to get worse from here.

I have heard that American Airlines Group may be looking to go to a 100% wholly-owned regional lift within 5 years. And they aren’t going to do that by growing their current WOs (unless something drastically changes). I would expect to see another regional purchased and made an AAG WO.
Mergers and consolidation of the regionals is coming, but who would AAG buy?
Not Skywest and Republic.
Not ExpressJet, Commutair, Horizon, AirWis.
Mesa? Unlikely. It was for sale briefly, but I think they are betting on the IPO now instead.
Carve out Compass from trans?
 
Mergers and consolidation of the regionals is coming, but who would AAG buy?
Not Skywest and Republic.
Not ExpressJet, Commutair, Horizon, AirWis.
Mesa? Unlikely. It was for sale briefly, but I think they are betting on the IPO now instead.
Carve out Compass from trans?

Mesa would be my guess.

UA parks Mesa’s 700s and slowly transfers 175s to Republic. AA buys Mesa and transfers Envoy’s remaining 700s plus the additional 15+ options for 900s they still hold go to Mesa. Would be an overall loss of hulls, but a surplus of pilots at a regional may not be a bad thing in AAG’s eyes right now.
 
Mesa would be my guess.

UA parks Mesa’s 700s and slowly transfers 175s to Republic. AA buys Mesa and transfers Envoy’s remaining 700s plus the additional 15+ options for 900s they still hold go to Mesa. Would be an overall loss of hulls, but a surplus of pilots at a regional may not be a bad thing in AAG’s eyes right now.
Mesa was looking to be bought few months back. I'm thinking that if AAG wanted to buy them they would have by now. Same applies to anyone wanting to buy them. AAG is the biggest stakeholder in Mesa according to whoever actually bothered to check the pre-IPO info dump, which, my guess, is how a) they've got short term funds to function to the IPO and b) AAG factually blocked other legacy from buying Mesa. Don't think AA is going to go all in on Mesa, but who knows.
MQ did get their former director of training a month or two ago though.
 
What do you think will happen with TSAs orders for the MRJ? I thought they had orders for a bunch of the 90s, but scope's never going to change so I'm wondering what they have planned.
 
What do you think will happen with TSAs orders for the MRJ? I thought they had orders for a bunch of the 90s, but scope's never going to change so I'm wondering what they have planned.
Lease them out to other countries would be my best guess. Same goes for SKWs MRJs.
 
Consolidation is the likely outcome of the squeeze being fully felt all over the regional industry right now. It’s only going to get worse from here.

I have heard that American Airlines Group may be looking to go to a 100% wholly-owned regional lift within 5 years. And they aren’t going to do that by growing their current WOs (unless something drastically changes). I would expect to see another regional purchased and made an AAG WO.
I could see AAG slimming it down to 4 or so regionals. I can't see them going 100% wholly owned.
 
I’d be really REALLY wary of going to any regional currently that wasn’t ether 1) wholly owned or 2) owned their aircraft.

If I was at one that didn’t fall into one of the above categories, I’d be doing everything I could to leave.

I have a really strong feeling that AAG isn’t the only one who is looking to slimplfy things.
 
If you believe what someone in management at United told my regional, United is planning to reduce the number of regionals they contract with.
 
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