Regionals 2016...

[tcco94]

So many variables on commutes. When I commuted MCI/ATL there were many options, about 12 flights a day and I lived 15 minutes from MCI. Often I would finish a NAP/Standup, hop a Midwest Express flight at 0730 with a full breakfast, and be home in time to have lunch with my kid at her elementary school. It really was not bad.

What will happen with regionals? Good question. I think majors are taking a more active interest in the manning of aircraft to the smaller markets. DAL has responded with the DRJ (717). All have started variations of flow throughs... guaranteed interviews. The more optimistic (delusional), regional pilots think the result will be majors acquiring regionals and tagging the regional pilots beneath the mainline pilots with fences. Hmmm.... I've heard this before. Sorry. Not going to happen. I do see more majors purchasing "RJs", be they the Portugeese speaking or French/Canadian variant and hiring more pilots to staff them.
The good news is that I have a good 401(k) and only 12 more years of 121 flying left. We will see what happens.

What about DAL purchasing E190s? Aren't they going to be operated by DAL pilots, not regional pilots?

If that is still true, wouldn't that be a first big clue at majors trying to cut ties with regionals?...or are you saying majors will just start operating their own regional aircraft and not pick up other regional pilots and aircraft like a "merge"?

 

[Blackhawk]

What about DAL purchasing E190s? Aren't they going to be operated by DAL pilots, not regional pilots?

If that is still true, wouldn't that be a first big clue at majors trying to cut ties with regionals?...or are you saying majors will just start operating their own regional aircraft and not pick up other regional pilots and aircraft like a "merge"?

I'm saying the latter may be a possibility. Not sure they are ready to just cut ties... not sure they can operate E190s to all the markets services by RJs cost effectively. Nor that oil will stay as low as it is which has pushed back the demise of the 50 seat.
Planes are planes. It would be great to see 777s servicing Grand Rapids, I just don't see that happening, so there will probably be a demand for smaller airplanes. Who will fly them? Well, pilots of course. Which pilots? Got me.

 

[RamRise]

Nor that oil will stay as low as it is which has pushed back the demise of the 50 seat.

Which is why I'm not gonna gamble with Piedmont, commutair or TSA when its my turn up to bat. Volatility on top of volatility . I'm right around 700hrs and I'd wager that the hiring environment will look different even in 10 months.

Seems like guys bum rush a promising regional in a wave of hiring and basically it's gets spoiled upgrade wise, and then it slows to a trickle, and then pilots start looking the next horse on the carousel to jump on to.

 

[z987k]

I'm saying the latter may be a possibility. Not sure they are ready to just cut ties... not sure they can operate E190s to all the markets services by RJs cost effectively. Nor that oil will stay as low as it is which has pushed back the demise of the 50 seat.
Planes are planes. It would be great to see 777s servicing Grand Rapids, I just don't see that happening, so there will probably be a demand for smaller airplanes. Who will fly them? Well, pilots of course. Which pilots? Got me.

It's been interesting seeing the aircraft used on routes in Asia recently. A 777 on a 2 hour leg between a major and regional airport. A 747 on a 3.5 hour hub to hub. I have a feeling the gauge has been dictated somewhat by their complete lack of pilots compared to the US. They are not full airplanes either.

 

[Max Power]

Didn't want to start a whole new thread, but since we are talking regionals..

I hear all the time not to commute. Right now I live three hours from 2 big regional hubs. DFW & IAH.

For those with experience commuting by car, is it any better than a commute flying?

I commuted by car for my first 6 months at C5 until we lost CLE as a base. Pittsburgh to Cleveland is about 2 hours.It's great in a way. Like a faithful dog, your car is always waiting for you. Get in late and all flights are gone? Get in the car and drive home. Coming in that day is nearly always an option, though waking at 230 for a 5am report is not fun. My brother lived about halfway between my house and CLE, so I stayed with him during reserve days and CDO's. For someone who likes driving or is at peace with it, it's fairly stress free, compared to the nonsense that is non-rev travel or jumpseating these days.

The downside is its kind of expensive, compared to using your travel benefits or jumpseating. Gas is much cheaper now, but when it was $3.50/gal, I was spending $300-400 a month in gas and tolls at one point . My car was mostly new and efficient at 28 mpg avg. If you've got a guzzler it an older car, even worse. If gas goes up, you'll feel it.

 

[Blackhawk]

It's been interesting seeing the aircraft used on routes in Asia recently. A 777 on a 2 hour leg between a major and regional airport. A 747 on a 3.5 hour hub to hub. I have a feeling the gauge has been dictated somewhat by their complete lack of pilots compared to the US. They are not full airplanes either.

The length of the route does not matter. What matters are the loads. DAL use to operate L-1011s ATL-MCO. When the L-1011 went away they used 777s for a while (not sure what they use now). On the other hand I've done 3 hour flights in a 700/900- that's what the load supports.

 

[Blackhawk]

Which is why I'm not gonna gamble with Piedmont, commutair or TSA when its my turn up to bat. Volatility on top of volatility . I'm right around 700hrs and I'd wager that the hiring environment will look different even in 10 months.

Seems like guys bum rush a promising regional in a wave of hiring and basically it's gets spoiled upgrade wise, and then it slows to a trickle, and then pilots start looking the next horse on the carousel to jump on to.

I've made the analogy to stocks before. There is a tendency for people to rush a "hot" stock with the same effect. Then there are the "blue chips" which chug along.
People forget that upgrade times are fleeting. The upgrade time today is not necessarily the upgrade time for someone in new hire class. Also they are not linear. A large group getting hired can quickly push back upgrade times. A gap in hiring can mean upgrade times can suddenly jump, from say 8 years to six years.

 

[mastermags]

I'd rather drive 20 mins to the airport and catch a 45 min flight to my base than drive 2 or 3 hours, but maybe that's just me.

Until the last flight out leaves before your inbound arrival, or it leaves right at the same time but you have to wait 20 mins for a gate and you miss it and have to sleep in a strange bed, or you have a morning flight that gets you to base in plenty of time but there is a three hour crew rest delay and no one bothered to inform the station so the next flight is oversold etc etc etc.

A two hour drive is nothing compared to having empowerment over your own mode of transportation, but that's just me.

 

[mastermags]

I've made the analogy to stocks before. There is a tendency for people to rush a "hot" stock with the same effect. Then there are the "blue chips" which chug along.
People forget that upgrade times are fleeting. The upgrade time today is not necessarily the upgrade time for someone in new hire class. Also they are not linear. A large group getting hired can quickly push back upgrade times. A gap in hiring can mean upgrade times can suddenly jump, from say 8 years to six years.

In your opinion, what are the 'blue chip' regionals today?

 

[chrisreedrules]

Until the last flight out leaves before your inbound arrival, or it leaves right at the same time but you have to wait 20 mins for a gate and you miss it and have to sleep in a strange bed, or you have a morning flight that gets you to base in plenty of time but there is a three hour crew rest delay and no one bothered to inform the station so the next flight is oversold etc etc etc.

A two hour drive is nothing compared to having empowerment over your own mode of transportation, but that's just me.

Well, that's why I bid commutable trips. Start late, end early. My company's commuter clause and the city I commute out of makes it relatively painless too. 1 flight every hour or two.

 

[Gonzo]

I'd rather drive 20 mins to the airport and catch a 45 min flight to my base than drive 2 or 3 hours, but maybe that's just me.

That is because you haven't been doing the commuting thing that long and it appears you aren't very good at math.

20 mins for your drive + 40 before flight + 45 for flight puts you at 1:45 if everything goes perfect. And on the way home you better hope you make the first flight you are trying for or the drive will become quicker in a hurry.

Hell, if I bid over to the other fleet at my shop I plan to drive the 4 hours to base over a 30 min drive to the airport and a 45 min flight and my company pays for positive space tickets to and from work.

 

[chrisreedrules]

That is because you haven't been doing the commuting thing that long and it appears you aren't very good at math.

20 mins for your drive + 40 before flight + 45 for flight puts you at 1:45 if everything goes perfect. And on the way home you better hope you make the first flight you are trying for or the drive will become quicker in a hurry.

Hell, if I bid over to the other fleet at my shop I plan to drive the 4 hours to base over a 30 min drive to the airport and a 45 min flight and my company pays for positive space tickets to and from work.

To each their own I guess. It's just been relatively painless for me. Maybe I'm the minority.

 

[Max Power]

Until the last flight out leaves before your inbound arrival, or it leaves right at the same time but you have to wait 20 mins for a gate and you miss it and have to sleep in a strange bed, or you have a morning flight that gets you to base in plenty of time but there is a three hour crew rest delay and no one bothered to inform the station so the next flight is oversold etc etc etc.

A two hour drive is nothing compared to having empowerment over your own mode of transportation, but that's just me.

Since I've upgraded, I've been back to reserve. I decided to keep a car in base so that I have wheels. I have family nearby but still a 30 minute drive (one is a controller at IAD), so that means staying with them instead of paying for hotels all the time. It's about $40 a month to keep the car there, but it's worth it for many reasons. The other is that the car is a lifeboat when the flights turn ugly. It's a solid 4.5-5 hours to drive home from IAD, but I have the option.

After dealing with shuttles all the time at work, having your own wheels is liberating. One of our commuter hotels is very remote to IAD and the shuttle sucks. I'm sure it took the same amount of time to get to the employee lot, get in the car and go, but it was a nice change.

 

[Blackhawk]

In your opinion, what are the 'blue chip' regionals today?

Tough one. If you asked me in 1998 I would have told you ACA and Comair. I would say my parent company. There are others that I would probably put up there- those with good contracts. Some are talked down by certain people, and maybe they will turn around, maybe not.

Probably easier to point out the ones to definitely avoid- those with very poor contracts and/or a history of abusing their employees.

 

[Blackhawk]

To each their own I guess. It's just been relatively painless for me. Maybe I'm the minority.

Same here. No big deal. Would I prefer to be in base? Sure. But in my years of commuting I've only missed work once due to loads.

 

[Max Power]

I don't think anywhere is safe as far as regionals are concerned. There's just so much turmoil in this level of the industry and so many of the old "blue chips" have disappeared that I don't think there's any safe bets. I don't think there ever was, it's just the industry was so stagnant and the regionals were so heavily used because the business model they and their mainline partners used, worked. That's all changed now

Commutair has been around forever. So has Piedmont. But not in their current form. Each has their positives and negatives and problems that might never really go away. I don't think the 145's were the best choice, but it's not like we had a choice. My personal thought is that we get the 145's now and transition away from the Dashes in the coming years, becoming an all jet operator at some point with newer metal somewhere down the line. That's as long as UAL keeps liking us and, just maybe, buys the rest of the company, making us wholly owned. Purely my speculation, but who knows? No one, just the whole hiring picture has changed in the short time I've been at C5. C5 has changed dramatically in just my two and a half years here.