Regionals 2016...

chrisreedrules

chrisreedrules

Master Blaster
No, it isn't another "which regional should I pick" thread...

I'm more interested in the insight that you may or may not have regarding the rest of 2016. Winter is almost finished and that means increased flying for spring/summer loads. Some of last year's heroes have become this year's zeros and vice/versa.

What do think is going to happen in the remainder of 2016? More flow agreements? Ab initio programs? Let's hear it... This one will be interesting to come back and look at around this time in 2017.
 
It all stays the same.

Recruiting gets more desperate and offers something else than pizza, first aid kits, and "swag" (heard that from a recruiter not long ago).... and a few more flow agreements that only 1/4 of CFIs agree with.
 
tcco94 said:
It all stays the same.

Recruiting gets more desperate and offers something else than pizza, first aid kits, and "swag" (heard that from a recruiter not long ago).... and a few more flow agreements that only 1/4 of CFIs agree with.
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Namely, the quarter of said CFIs-turned-FOs (or Captains)-who-have-flow.
 
I predict you're going to see some regional's struggle more than others. Hiring at the majors will pick up. Oil prices will go up slowing things a bit, but the retirement numbers aren't going to magically disappear....
 
Autothrust Blue said:
Namely, the quarter of said CFIs-turned-FOs (or Captains)-who-have-flow.
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Flows are essentially a carrot that mainline can offer its regional subsidiaries that literally cost nothing for them but stands as a huge recruitment/retention tool. Flows come and go, and so do regionals. I think the current ones are here to stay for some time, but I'm not sure ultimately how many more we'll actually see.

I think the "at risk" airlines this year are AWAC and RAH. I could be wrong though. If you asked me this time last year if CommutAir and XJT would have guaranteed interview agreements with UA I wouldn't have believed it. Anything can happen in this business. It's nuts.
 
chrisreedrules said:
Flows are essentially a carrot that mainline can offer its regional subsidiaries that literally cost nothing for them but stands as a huge recruitment/retention tool. Flows come and go, and so do regionals. I think the current ones are here to stay for some time, but I'm not sure ultimately how many more we'll actually see.

I think the "at risk" airlines this year are AWAC and RAH. I could be wrong though. If you asked me this time last year if CommutAir and XJT would have guaranteed interview agreements with UA I wouldn't have believed it. Anything can happen in this business. It's nuts.
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I've been in the industry... A few years. My first choice was ACA, then considered the premier regional. My interview went poorly and I was crushed. Second choice was a toss up between Comair and ASA. ASA called first. If you told me then that ACA and Comair would be gone now but TSA would still be clinging to life I'd have thought you were nuts.
ACA went under while my wife was in the middle of med school. Not sure what we would have done.
So what will happen in 2016? Got me. I do agree on those airlines that are "at risk". Who knows.
I also agree with the flow through scheme. It entices pilots to go someplace where the contract and pay may not be great. it's here today, gone tomorrow.
 
chrisreedrules said:
Flows are essentially a carrot that mainline can offer its regional subsidiaries that literally cost nothing for them but stands as a huge recruitment/retention tool. Flows come and go, and so do regionals. I think the current ones are here to stay for some time, but I'm not sure ultimately how many more we'll actually see.

I think the "at risk" airlines this year are AWAC and RAH. I could be wrong though. If you asked me this time last year if CommutAir and XJT would have guaranteed interview agreements with UA I wouldn't have believed it. Anything can happen in this business. It's nuts.
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I would put G7 at a higher risk than AWAC or RAH. RAH can right the ship by simply parking the 145's, IMO. G7 on the other hand, is going to need a miracle.
 
At this point the price of oil is anybody's guess. Demand will go up in the summer, but the market is still flooded. Even if it does it will still be lower than it has been the past few years.
 
chrisreedrules said:
Flows are essentially a carrot that mainline can offer its regional subsidiaries that literally cost nothing for them but stands as a huge recruitment/retention tool. Flows come and go, and so do regionals. I think the current ones are here to stay for some time, but I'm not sure ultimately how many more we'll actually see.

I think the "at risk" airlines this year are AWAC and RAH. I could be wrong though. If you asked me this time last year if CommutAir and XJT would have guaranteed interview agreements with UA I wouldn't have believed it. Anything can happen in this business. It's nuts.
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latest
 
How individual companies will fare is anyone's guess. Operationally at most regionals?

Min days off, lots of requests to 'help out' when already 117'd to death and general pandemonium.
 
I don't know what is in store for this year for us. But it should be interesting.
-The first SAAB 2000 is hopefully going to begin proving runs this month.

-We are adding three new destinations out of Portland. We are going to be needing new crews for that. But with the 2000 probably going to shrink the number of crews in Anchorage, people may have to start commuting.

-We have no CTP program in place, so I don't know what we have in place for when we run out of pilots that have the written done, or an ATP already.

-Our pay was pretty decent, but now we are falling behind again.

-Fortunately not all our eggs are in the EAS basket.

-We just got our ipads approved.

-Rumor has it we are bidding on routes out of Denver and Washington Dulles.

It is going to be an interesting year for sure for us. A lot depends on the 2000 getting up and running.
 
ASpilot2be said:
I don't know what is in store for this year for us. But it should be interesting.
-The first SAAB 2000 is hopefully going to begin proving runs this month.

-We are adding three new destinations out of Portland. We are going to be needing new crews for that. But with the 2000 probably going to shrink the number of crews in Anchorage, people may have to start commuting.

-We have no CTP program in place, so I don't know what we have in place for when we run out of pilots that have the written done, or an ATP already.

-Our pay was pretty decent, but now we are falling behind again.

-Fortunately not all our eggs are in the EAS basket.

-We just got our ipads approved.

-Rumor has it we are bidding on routes out of Denver and Washington Dulles.

It is going to be an interesting year for sure for us. A lot depends on the 2000 getting up and running.
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7H is supposedly getting a CTP course, I feel like I'll believe it when I see it but I'm sure we will eventually, I don't know how they expect to attract anyone otherwise. Sled mins have been dropped from 1,500 to 1,000, we have directed hired CAs in to Van (which is unheard of for Hagey). I think the landscape started to change in 2015, 2016 will be fun.
 
alaskadrifter said:
7H is supposedly getting a CTP course, I feel like I'll believe it when I see it but I'm sure we will eventually, I don't know how they expect to attract anyone otherwise. Sled mins have been dropped from 1,500 to 1,000, we have directed hired CAs in to Van (which is unheard of for Hagey). I think the landscape started to change in 2015, 2016 will be fun.
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Yeah, we are gonna have to. Because our freighter guys aren't going to have any way to move up if they haven't taken the written. We are gonna have to adapt from a small local airline, to start competing with everyone else. Time to put the big boy pants on.
 
What I'm curious about is Great Lakes, and Allegiant... Pilots still have their reasons for going to either of these carriers, but for how much longer... I think some airlines will cease to exist. Maybe not this year or the next, but soon...
 
JustinS said:
What I'm curious about is Great Lakes, and Allegiant... Pilots still have their reasons for going to either of these carriers, but for how much longer... I think some airlines will cease to exist. Maybe not this year or the next, but soon...
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Maybe. But for many of us the memory of 2009-12ish is still fresh when ATPs with thousands of hours were duking it out over crappy 135 jobs just to stay in the game.
 
alaskadrifter said:
At this point the price of oil is anybody's guess. Demand will go up in the summer, but the market is still flooded. Even if it does it will still be lower than it has been the past few years.
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With Iran sanctions lifted and opec wanting to keep the domestic oil production down, I think there's a new cap on oil prices. I think we'll see cheap oil for a number of years to come.
 
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