Regional Bases & co. Perception Questions...

You mentioned your desire to target AA as your #1 airline. If that is the case, you should probably consider regional airlines that have a direct flow to AA. For example, PSA has a flow, but it is a small flow, 48 pilots per year. That will probably change for the better at PSA. But right now, Envoy probably has the best flow of all the AA regionals so something to consider. As of right now though Envoy has a longer upgrade time which is important in your consideration.

Having said all of that, if you are still a year out from the regionals, you won't recognize any of them in a year anyway. Things change so quickly. 2015 is forecasting 1044 openings from retirement at the mainline airlines including fedex, ups and Alaska.
 
I think flow is a sucker bet, especially since for the next 15 years the Legacies will all be hiring at least 400 per year each. Waiting to be picked off the top of a single specific seniority list due to flow is a loser when plenty of opportunities for hire will exist well before that time once folks have the required mins.
 
re: PHX Mesa FO, a friend of mine is a PHX mesa FO and hasn't been with the company very long (under two years, I believe). He concurs that the wait to get PHX FO is not very long, which is something for me to consider as that is where I currently live.

Agreed on all accounts that the regional landscape may look completely different 12 months from now. Being home based is definitely my #1 objective with the regionals, and as long as it looks like PHX or CLT are doable then all the better.

As for flow, that won't really even be a consideration for all the reasons Hacker listed. One question though, if you work for a regional with a flow agreement, are you still permitted to apply to and be hired by the mainline counterpart through the normal non-flow process?
 
There is nothing to stop you from applying but I don't know how many would be hired outside of the flow, that's a great question but I don't know who would have the answer to that. Both Envoy and PSA are wholly owned by American so there may be some incentive for American to not do that leaving your realistic target as United or Delta outside of flow.

In any any event, my best advice to you would be to target airlines where you can sit in the captains chair in two years, ie - growing airlines. Airlines like Envoy, Endeavor, and Republic are so large that pilots are sitting right seat on the order of 7-10 years. It's counter-intuitive but some of these have or will in the future park airplanes for lack of pilots to fly them. Pilots refuse to work at these airlines because of the upgrade time. Why sit there for 7-10 years as an FO when PDT, PSA, Mesa, and TSA will have 1-2 year upgrades or less.

Again though, in a year from now who knows!!
 
I think flow is a sucker bet, especially since for the next 15 years the Legacies will all be hiring at least 400 per year each. Waiting to be picked off the top of a single specific seniority list due to flow is a loser when plenty of opportunities for hire will exist well before that time once folks have the required mins.

This is true, however you must think of the implications for someone trying to get in off the
street. If in 10 years 35% of AA classes are coming from envoy, x% are coming from PSA, x% are coming from Piedmont, plus shoe ins from the military, it will eventually be quite difficult to get hired at AA off the street, or even bypass more senior guys by being an overall better candidate. So while it might take longer this way, you will probably have the best chance going to a wholly owned carrier. If you can't beat em, join em.

Oh and also, live in base. This is a completely different job if you live in base. I cannot stress that enough.
 
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