Re: Recent Talk About Regionals / Pilot Shortage

Interesting point no one has spoken of yet in this whole deal is the effective elimination of "buy your seat" FO programs that were feeding a lot of the back fill at the regionals. That, along with the new 117 rules are a sort of "perfect storm" of suck. I do believe there is a shortage of qualified pilots. What remains to be seen is how the industry and the unions react to it.
 
pljenkins said:
Interesting point no one has spoken of yet in this whole deal is the effective elimination of "buy your seat" FO programs that were feeding a lot of the back fill at the regionals. That, along with the new 117 rules are a sort of "perfect storm" of suck. I do believe there is a shortage of qualified pilots. What remains to be seen is how the industry and the unions react to it.
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I'm glad you brought up Part 117. ALPA and the FAA are some of the biggest contributors to any shortage there may be if only for the fact that instead of expecting airlines to do more with less they have now codified it into the CFRs. Crewmember utilization has dropped across the board so of course if you get less mileage out of your resources there will be a perceived shortage.
 
pljenkins said:
Interesting point no one has spoken of yet in this whole deal is the effective elimination of "buy your seat" FO programs that were feeding a lot of the back fill at the regionals. That, along with the new 117 rules are a sort of "perfect storm" of suck. I do believe there is a shortage of qualified pilots. What remains to be seen is how the industry and the unions react to it.
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I remember a lot of the "pay for your own initial training" going on back when I started out dispatching in the 90s. It seemed to go away, but then the required minimum hours started falling at various regionals also. The new FAR 117 rules for a new hire commercial airline pilot are actually similar to what most regional's minimum requirements were in the early 90s...hard to tell what will happen next. I think pilot wages at regionals probably will increase but it won't be an overnight process...who knows, some majors may even end up taking back some of the regional feed in-house. If AA spins off Eagle, I don't think there will be any remaining wholly owned regionals, other than Horizon being owned by Alaska. (If I am wrong on that, feel free to correct me.)
 
manniax said:
I remember a lot of the "pay for your own initial training" going on back when I started out dispatching in the 90s. It seemed to go away...
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I remember people getting 727 FE tickets back in the day to get a shot at a major airline. That died a merciful death.

The PFT thing seems to have died out here. It's more common (if that's the right word) in other parts of the world. Here's an example from Bangladesh:

http://www.latestpilotjobs.com/jobs/view/id/3082.html

Another variation on a theme is the training bond. Don't know how common that is here. Neither of these is likely to affect industry outcomes in the USA.
 
I think you will see regionals becoming smaller operations and as some predict... Going back to props serving communities that wont support larger a/c. As in Europe, mainline carriers fly both large transport and regional type a/c.
 
Yeah......aviation types are always touting turboprops......and it is logical. Trouble is your customers ( the passengers ) won't tolerate nor fly on them. A propeller plane to most passengers is an obsolete type of technology. So props are a non starter, the passengers would rather drive to an airport where they can fly a REAL airplane....A JET ! Sorry, no one will EVER change that mindset.
 
But what about those people that died in Buffalo? No. We must ensure that we overreact and knee jerk to fix the cause of that horrible accident and we know that it was the inexperience of the FO that caused it.

- The United States Congress

Couldn't agree with you more womanpilot.
 
LTDXER said:
Yeah......aviation types are always touting turboprops......and it is logical. Trouble is your customers ( the passengers ) won't tolerate nor fly on them. A propeller plane to most passengers is an obsolete type of technology. So props are a non starter, the passengers would rather drive to an airport where they can fly a REAL airplane....A JET ! Sorry, no one will EVER change that mindset.
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The entire PNW flying on QX would beg to differ. Modern props are not the Metros of old; the main problem with the Q400 is not that people don't want to fly them, it's that they are maintenance queens. I think alot of people would rather roll up to a clean Q400 than a dumpy old E145. I know I sure would.
 
belgiumania said:
The entire PNW flying on QX would beg to differ. Modern props are not the Metros of old; the main problem with the Q400 is not that people don't want to fly them, it's that they are maintenance queens. I think alot of people would rather roll up to a clean Q400 than a dumpy old E145. I know I sure would.
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Those of us who still fly Metros should take this as a compliment!
 
womanpilot73 said:
That is simply going to HAVE to change given the 1500 hour requirement. IMO...
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But how long until they actually do is the kicker. I know that unless pay increases I won't invest the 65K-100K and neither will many others. I flew with an instructor who had a B.A.S. degree from Embry-Riddle and 1400 hours and decided the low pay outlook killed his passion for flying for a living. That made me realize the pilot shortage WILL be real soon enough and the regionals and majors will have to act.
 
Already happening. Take a peek over at the airline pilot's forum and it's a smoldering mess. First time I've ever heard of an upgrade class that wasn't able to attract enough attention to fill all open positions. The possible melting down of Eagle might infuse some pilots into the system, but I think that is going to be a lot of moving up to AA/US, and Eagle is going to go down somewhat like the Titanic. At first it will be imperceptible...

Seriously, if you're looking for a healthy dose of pithyness, you gotta head over there.

Here is an interesting read on the subject.

http://forums.jetcareers.com/threads/the-insanity-of-concessions-in-2014.192579/
 
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People have mentioned the massive amount of major airline retirements at the end of the decade until the end of the following decade.

Also, consider the effects of consolidation. Fewer airlines and pricing power means fewer flights and seats are needed. Even the LCCs will likely raise fares considerably above what they are now due to the favorable economics of high demand for less seats. When will the majors finally begin to use the pricing power?

The majors dont need or really want large regionals anymore. If the pilot shortage gets bad enough, they can simply shrink and even essentially liquidate the regionals. If Republic gets too expensive, for example, mainline guys would be happy to take on the E170 flying. If Republic cant staff with the rates or if mainline has too many retirements, management can either take the planes to mainline with mainline rates or park the planes.

For dispatchers I think the short term is ok for everyone but in the long term 4-6 years from now I think it will be hard or impossible to take the regional route to the majors. Either a university degree or internal hires will likely get become the preferred route to the majors simply because regionals may not exist or will be so small only the senior lifers remain. Thats why I say the next four years are critical for those entering the business now who want to take the regional route to the majors.

I dont think management will want or be able to sustain regional flying at higher rates. With a pilot shortage of their own brewing, I would not be at all surprised to see the majors use it as an excuse to get out of regional contracts and also get rid of old planes of their own that they have been trying to park.

Consolidation means airlines dont need as many hub airports anymore. If anything, fewer hubs and more focus cities may be the future of a consolidated industry. The lack of competition makes it easier to have less flights and charge more money for it. The people that need to fly will still fly but with fewer flights and less seats they will need to pay more for it.

Remember, Airways couldnt get enough E190 captains to fill every captain spot available. Airways has an extremely senior group on the East side. Legacy AA has an average age in the mid fifties for the pilot group. The bottom starts to drop around 2018.

One thing to watch out for are the supplementals and LCCs. If the majors are forced to raise pay due to all the retirements and a high cost to learn to fly, those places may or may not be able to stop their own crews from taking higher pay and going to the majors. Southwest will be fine obviously but will Frontier, JetBlue, and Spirit be able to keep all their pilots and attract new hires for low pay rates if the majors need to raise their pay? Even the ease of getting hired at the majors could hurt the other carriers who wont be able to match the wages at the majors assuming no changes in pay rates occur. I doubt Spirit, Frontier and JetBlue can raise pilot pay much more and stay competitive with the Big Three. Even Southwest has the same problem but with their rates so high it will take a lot to not be able to attract new people. All that Southwest will struggle with is keeping their status as a LCC.
 
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