Eddiebauer86
Well-Known Member
Now that the flow has gone through the top of the list, it looks as though the top 60-65 on the seniority list are pretty solid as no-flows. Going down through the 2005 and later hires, I think very few will bypass. That group on average likely has 20-25 years left to 65 if they chose to flow up to AA. My best guess is that 1 out of every 10 will elect to bypass. This does not include attrition to other carriers.
To put it simply, the math at this point beyond 12 months is so soft that it's not even worth doing. So much can (and likely will) change the equation.
For a new hire, or a perspective new hire, all the flow should represent is a planned attrition that will provide seniority movement and Captain vacancies. Because the chances of the game being the same in 6+ years is pretty much slim to none.
Yea, thats a good point. I was wondering about the top half, so that makes sense. As for the industry being different in 6 years, your absoultely right in that respect. I went back to posts from 2007 and its kinda funny to read about the projections back then.. look at the industry now. Major changes..