Pipelines, Flows, Career Decisions, etc.

[av8tr1]

The definition of insanity is doing things the same way over and over again expecting a different result. So if the airline industry continues to do things the same way over and over again but is expecting things to magically be different this time......

Enjoy those increased schedules, increased time away from home, low pay to start, and all the other "benefits" that come from being a "Airline pilot".

What do you think is going to happen as the new pilot pool continues to decrease. Think airlines are to be in a hurry to kick the most experienced guys to the curb or are they going to pay them more money to keep the guys most valuable to them around?

 

[bp]

The definition of insanity is doing things the same way over and over again expecting a different result. So if the airline industry continues to do things the same way over and over again but is expecting things to magically be different this time......

Enjoy those increased schedules, increased time away from home, low pay to start, and all the other "benefits" that come from being a "Airline pilot".

What do you think is going to happen as the new pilot pool continues to decrease. Think airlines are to be in a hurry to kick the most experienced guys to the curb or are they going to pay them more money to keep the guys most valuable to them around?

The most experienced guys, lol

/implying that no one else on the seniority list can figure out how to drive a triple over the ocean

It's not flight instruction




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[ClarkGriswold]

The most experienced guys, lol

/implying that no one else on the seniority list can figure out how to drive a triple over the ocean

It's not flight instruction




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Having flown with the "senior guys" just because they're senior doesn't mean they're good. Also enjoy the private/corp sector where you don't know if they'll sell the plane, lay you off, pass you over for an upgrade, and keep you on the road indefinitely (guessing you are corporate @av8tr1) and how did you come up with increased schedules and more time away because senior people retire?

Me thinks you wanted to be an airline pilot but never made it and now it's the worst thing in the world because you are trying to justify your career decisions, we also see it when people get turned down by an airline they want to work at. Before it was amazing, after it's garbage compared to where they're at.

 

[tcco94]

Everyone junior to me is a "punk kid"...good to know.

And since when does hire date=Skill and ability?

Some interesting logic you're throwing around. Actually, none at all.

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

Also where do you think all of those airline retirees are going to go to try and keep flying: corporate


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[av8tr1]

The most experienced guys, lol

/implying that no one else on the seniority list can figure out how to drive a triple over the ocean

It's not flight instruction




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Well technically that has been my point in the past. The current seniority system is solely based around time in seat. NOT based on actual performance. Everyone is held to the exact same standard. It doesn't matter if you have been in the seat for 1 year or 10 years you are treated the same. So why would you want to go the extra mile and do more. I am close with some people from a competing airline. I watched the recent events with the "non-union" action. The company was struggling for crews to fly flights. In one day I think I heard something like 80% of flights were canceled (that might have been one single station though). Anyone who volunteered to fly those understaffed flights faced threats from the pilot group. Ok cool, so the pilot groups are circling the wagons. I'm jiggy with that. The pilot groups should look out for each other. But then I was in the audience for a conversation where three pilots from the group who were complaining about a pilot with a higher seniority number then they had. The conversation ended with them plotting against the guy so they could move up one rung on the seniority ladder. Just one single rung. Why were they stabbing the guy in the back? Because he volunteered to fly a flight. He wanted to be a individual contributor. Not for any reason other than to help the company out. He knew the job action wasn't legal. Knew his company was in trouble. So he volunteered to fly a single flight.

Pardon me for my union rant here.

The unions have created this age based system for seniority. Completely destroying the idea of a individual contributor thus very little incentive exists for one to go above and beyond the core metrics of the job. Now I recognize that there are pluses and minuses for the idea of a individual contributor based compensation system. Its rife with nepotism and politics. I spent over 20 years in that sort of environment. But a seniority based system is just as bad. There the issue is one of whatever it takes to get the next rung on the seniority list. thus you have pilots looking for any option to remove a person from a rung higher.

It leads to what we have now where no one is recognized by their individual skills or performance. And if you stick your neck out to try to stand out from the crowed you get it cut off. Thus we have the broken system that very few new people want to come into. Everyone at the top says I paid my dues so you need to do the same thing I did when I came on board.

A little earlier in the thread we had a story from a guy who lived in his car in the airport parking lot while flying a jet with 100+ passengers on board. Is that what you want all the new guys coming in to the industry to be forced to deal with? Or do you want to be better than the guys who came before you and create a positive welcoming environment, not a dog eat dog industry?

 

[ClarkGriswold]

Pretty sure your focus on making it better for guys behind you in the wrong direction.

 

[av8tr1]

Having flown with the "senior guys" just because they're senior doesn't mean they're good. Also enjoy the private/corp sector where you don't know if they'll sell the plane, lay you off, pass you over for an upgrade, and keep you on the road indefinitely (guessing you are corporate @av8tr1) and how did you come up with increased schedules and more time away because senior people retire?

Me thinks you wanted to be an airline pilot but never made it and now it's the worst thing in the world because you are trying to justify your career decisions, we also see it when people get turned down by an airline they want to work at. Before it was amazing, after it's garbage compared to where they're at.

Nope I work for a 121/135 op. Worked for another airline before this. Never been turned down for a 121 op. But I don't plan to make a career of 121 and never have. 121 is not the pinnacle of the aviation career.

The idea of increased schedules and more time away is a simple formula. There is a specific and finite number of required man hours for flight schedules as they are. Thus the industry needs X amount of pilots to cover these existing schedules. If anything changes in the formula something has to give. So X number of flights requires N number of flight crews Y can cover X. If you don't have enough pilots you can't fill all of those flights. Thus either the schedule needs to change (thus less money for the company or ticket prices need to go up) or you need more pilots. You can wait to fill those forecasted 20K empty pilot seats in 2020 and hope that the flight schools can churn out enough students to get to the seat or you can keep guys who have been flying for years in the seat a bit longer.

Which way do you think things are going to go?

 

[ClarkGriswold]

Nope I work for a 121/135 op. Worked for another airline before this. Never been turned down for a 121 op. But I don't plan to make a career of 121 and never have. 121 is not the pinnacle of the aviation career.

The idea of increased schedules and more time away is a simple formula. There is a specific and finite number of required man hours for flight schedules as they are. Thus the industry needs X amount of pilots to cover these existing schedules. If anything changes in the formula something has to give. So X number of flights requires N number of flight crews Y can cover X. If you don't have enough pilots you can't fill all of those flights. Thus either the schedule needs to change (thus less money for the company or ticket prices need to go up) or you need more pilots. You can wait to fill those forecasted 20K empty pilot seats in 2020 and hope that the flight schools can churn out enough students to get to the seat or you can keep guys who have been flying for years in the seat a bit longer.

Which way do you think things are going to go?

That's alot of the word "thus".

Anywho, if they raise the retirement age all it does is delay your conspiracy thus not solving the problem but your problem really isn't with the mandatory retirement it's with unions. You just don't want to come out and say it, thus your 15 posts to get to that point. Thus?

Also, since you said you've posted about your problems with unions before, wouldn't you (by definition of course) be insane?

 

[av8tr1]

Pretty sure your focus on making it better for guys behind you in the wrong direction.

Actually I am suggesting we do both. Increase pay and opportunity for the new guys to start attracting them to the industry and keep the guys at the top of the seniority list on for longer to fill the need. Better to have someone qualified and experienced in the seat than not have anyone at all. Until the industry fills those forecasted 20K empty seats keeping the experienced guys around is just simple logic.

 

[ClarkGriswold]

Actually I am suggesting we do both. Increase pay and opportunity for the new guys to start attracting them to the industry and keep the guys at the top of the seniority list on for longer to fill the need. Better to have someone qualified and experienced in the seat than not have anyone at all. Until the industry fills those forecasted 20K empty seats keeping the experienced guys around is just simple logic.

Except the pay is going up and raising the retirement age, again, only delays the inevitable. It will need to be dealt with no matter what. So IMO better to deal with it sooner rather than later when there are actually people in the pipeline.

 

[av8tr1]

That's alot of the word "thus".

Anywho, if they raise the retirement age all it does is delay your conspiracy thus not solving the problem but your problem really isn't with the mandatory retirement it's with unions. You just don't want to come out and say it, thus your 15 posts to get to that point. Thus?

Also, since you said you've posted about your problems with unions before, wouldn't you (by definition of course) be insane?

Oh I am very upfront about my dislike for the airline unions. Not trying to hide anything. I think the existing airline unions are the biggest problem facing the industry. But of course now that I have said that I can expect the usual knuckle dragger union thug response.

But the problem is that we don't have enough pilots, period dot. The idea that you would get rid of existing experienced pilots where you have no one to replace them is pure insanity. In 3 years it is forecasted that we will be short 20K pilots for the industry (and that is just the US). With existing systems can we make 20K 1500 hour plus pilots who can fill these seats? I highly doubt it. Regardless of whose fault it is that the industry is facing it, the fact is that the industry is going to be far short of staffing needs without a way to correct it with existing systems. But yet we have lots of experienced pilots that some are suggesting need to be forced from the flight deck purely because some outdated idea that they are no longer capable that has been long disproven? That right there is insanity.

I am sure the following will be completely ignored but I am not against pilot unions. I am just against the current ALPA examples out there. Unions have historically been a good thing. The airline unions that we have today have done everything to line their pockets and avoid doing any actual good for the industry for as long as I can remember. And I have been around this industry for a long time. My dad was a commercial pilot, my mother was a flight attendant (Pan Am no less) and my aunt was a 30 year customer service agent (United) and now I am a commercial pilot.

 

[av8tr1]

Except the pay is going up and raising the retirement age, again, only delays the inevitable. It will need to be dealt with no matter what. So IMO better to deal with it sooner rather than later when there are actually people in the pipeline.

Ok so if pay is going up and we still are not seeing enough pilots coming into the industry how do you propose we deal with this now? Or even soon? A student pilot starting training today is at least 4-5 years out from a regional. Being an airline pilot isn't the highly sought after career it once was. Its a tough job with a lot of responsibility and a lot of time on the road. If it takes a student pilot 10 or more years to get to a 100K plus salary when he/she can see that and better in IT in 2 years out of college and they don't spend 4 days a week away from home while forced to wear a hat inside why would they want to be a pilot?

In the meantime, while the industry faces a significant loss of revenue that will lead to layoffs due to a lack of experienced pilots you expect they airlines to continue to hold the same flight schedule or do you think they will pare it back so they don't need as many pilots? In fact that is already happening.

So in all seriousness, what is your solution to solving this both short and long term industry issue?

 

[ClarkGriswold]

Ok so if pay is going up and we still are not seeing enough pilots coming into the industry how do you propose we deal with this now? Or even soon? A student pilot starting training today is at least 4-5 years out from a regional. Being an airline pilot isn't the highly sought after career it once was. Its a tough job with a lot of responsibility and a lot of time on the road. If it takes a student pilot 10 or more years to get to a 100K plus salary when he/she can see that and better in IT in 2 years out of college and they don't spend 4 days a week away from home while forced to wear a hat inside why would they want to be a pilot?

In the meantime, while the industry faces a significant loss of revenue that will lead to layoffs due to a lack of experienced pilots you expect they airlines to continue to hold the same flight schedule or do you think they will pare it back so they don't need as many pilots? In fact that is already happening.

So in all seriousness, what is your solution to solving this both short and long term industry issue?

False. Guys regularly do it in half or even less and the legacies are hiring guys who have only been flying 4-5 years.

 

[av8tr1]

False. Guys regularly do it in half or even less and the legacies are hiring guys who have only been flying 4-5 years.

Sure, its possible to do it in less. But that not happening in ever case. And I am willing to bet it's more rare to see it done in less time than more. I'm willing to bet over 75% take 4-5 years to a regional. And it's going to get worse as less people start in the industry. How are those student pilots going to build those hours from 250 to 1500 if there are few students starting training?

But let's say you are right. So why are we facing a 20k industry short fall?

 

[Cloud Surfer]

You should. One day you'll be 65 and wanting to keep your job while some punk kid is looking for every opportunity to stab you in the back to move up one notch in seniority.

They've been at this job making so much money and overnighting in LAS etc that nausea can't even describe my symptoms while most of the regional guys supporting this lame B scale scheme were flying five legs per day and overnighting in the Hickville Inn at Paducah, Kentucky, contributing to major airline profit sharing since forever...and you want the old guys to put another two year cap on us??

 

[derg]

Having flown with the "senior guys" just because they're senior doesn't mean they're good. Also enjoy the private/corp sector where you don't know if they'll sell the plane, lay you off, pass you over for an upgrade, and keep you on the road indefinitely (guessing you are corporate @av8tr1) and how did you come up with increased schedules and more time away because senior people retire?

Me thinks you wanted to be an airline pilot but never made it and now it's the worst thing in the world because you are trying to justify your career decisions, we also see it when people get turned down by an airline they want to work at. Before it was amazing, after it's garbage compared to where they're at.

This is true. Some guys as they approach retirement do great, other guys, well, I've literally found myself talking to the relief pilot as to if he's "seeing what I'm seeing" and querying about what he saw while I was on break.

Sadly, the guy we all suspected/joked about having dementia actually turned out to have dementia at 63 and was medically retired when he went to CQ and didn't have his usual assortment of copilots that would keep him out of trouble.

Real nice guy too. Sad it went down like that, but it would have happened a lot sooner if he was on a two-person jet flying multiple legs on a 717.

 

[Autothrust Blue]

This is true. Some guys as they approach retirement do great, other guys, well, I've literally found myself talking to the relief pilot as to if he's "seeing what I'm seeing" and querying about what he saw while I was on break.

Sadly, the guy we all suspected/joked about having dementia actually turned out to have dementia at 63 and was medically retired when he went to CQ and didn't have his usual assortment of copilots that would keep him out of trouble.

Real nice guy too. Sad it went down like that, but it would have happened a lot sooner if he was on a two-person jet flying multiple legs on a 717.

It'd be interesting to study.

For science.

 

[bp]

Sure, its possible to do it in less. But that not happening in ever case. And I am willing to bet it's more rare to see it done in less time than more. I'm willing to bet over 75% take 4-5 years to a regional. And it's going to get worse as less people start in the industry. How are those student pilots going to build those hours from 250 to 1500 if there are few students starting training?

But let's say you are right. So why are we facing a 20k industry short fall?

It took me 19.5 months from wet single engine commercial to ATP at a 121.
I'd have been here sooner if I didn't pay for my training as I went with a full time job and college classes here and there. Anyone that doesn't have those distractions could easily do it in under 3 years

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[av8tr1]

It took me 19.5 months from wet single engine commercial to ATP at a 121.
I'd have been here sooner if I didn't pay for my training as I went with a full time job and college classes here and there. Anyone that doesn't have those distractions could easily do it in under 3 years

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Read what I wrote. Here I will even quote it for you.

Sure, its possible to do it in less. But that not happening in ever case. And I am willing to bet it's more rare to see it done in less time than more. I'm willing to bet over 75% take 4-5 years to a regional. And it's going to get worse as less people start in the industry. How are those student pilots going to build those hours from 250 to 1500 if there are few students starting training?

But how long did it take you to go from zero hours as a student to a single engine commercial? Add that number in and I bet its a it longer than 19.5 months.

But lets say that still under 4 years, congrats you are one of the lucky guys who was able to do it quickly. Not everyone can do that. I think more people are not able to do that then can. But I am sure your single data point example "must" be exactly what everyone else experiences.

So if it's so easy why do we have the lack of pilots we do now and the far worse forecast in the next few years if it's SO easy even a caveman can do it.