So, here's what looks like may be happening. There IS a provision for what happens if 9E grows at the expense of XJ, and it stems from an LOA back in the late 90s. XJ's current contract even has an LOA that addresses it. It's number 6 if you XJ guys wanna follow along.
Essentially, if 9E management decides to transfer planes from XJ to 9E, they have to offer vacancies to XJ. The LOA get sketchy because it was designed around transfers involving Saabs and Jetstreams. There would be X number opening for the Saab (which I guess would be the CRJ now) and X number for the Jetstream (which I guess would be the Saab, only those will be going to Colgan....or Colgan will be going to Mesaba. Who knows?). Seniority would be on a (and this is the kick in the nuts) 1 for 2 basis for CAs and essentially date of transfer for the FOs (it's listed at Aug 1997 in the original LOA, but I doubt that'll happen). So, and 18 year XJ CA would go over to the 9E side with 9 years of seniority. The FOs would, essentially, get stapled.
Now, the original LOA was for 9E pilots going to XJ, however XJ's LOA 6 states that if the reverse is true (which in this case, shockingly, it is), the two will meet to hammer out an LOA with "no less favorable" terms.
As far as Colgan goes, no LOA exists, so we're likely looking at merging the lists per ALPA policy there. Knowing Pinnacle Corp as I do, they're gonna fight tooth and nail to keep from merging the lists. They've already got a multi-year track record in doing this with us and Colgan. The FAIR thing, from my perspective, would be ONE seniority list for XJ, 9E and 9L with fences and maybe some language in place that limits jumping between the certs sorta like how Republic does it.
Now, the above LOA expires in 2 years, so I could very well see management dragging their feet so they don't have to do anything. The flip side is they may start moving planes from XJ to 9E in a few months to consolidate funds and just use the LOA to get XJ pilots on a "half price" sale while letting Colgan and Mesaba duke it out on a seniority list integration.
This.....well, it's gonna get pretty damn ugly.