Pinnacle and Mesaba post SLI and Contract

P

pilotlight

Well-Known Member
After the TA gets voted in (which i am confident will) and the SLI gets done, does anyone else feel that there is something big in the future for the combined airline? Im not sure what it may be but i just feel that there might be some news that will come out in 2011. most people seem to think buying horizon airlines, but I am not so sure that would happen. Pinnacle likes consolidation and to have bases way out there all of a sudden would not really fall in line with what we have. What do you guys think?
My thoughts are that even though we have good contracts with delta and united - the crj 200's (145 of them) are only good through 2017, are not owned by us, but are starting to become maintenance hogs. That leaves us with 57 900's, only 16 we own. Every Q 400 we get I believe will be owned by us and then you have the saabs which wont be here forever.
So we really don't own much and their slogan lately has been to own our future. I often wonder if they will try and do what Republic is doing but with what airline? really the only one i could see them trying to buy would be spirit, the others are just to big and spirit would be a direct competitor with delta.
I guess a lot will depend on oil prices and scope clause - if scope does not permit the airplanes pinnacle wants to fly, then thier only choice is to start their own airline or aquire one that flys on their own because as the 50 seat jets go away for them in 6 years, if there is no room for 76 seat jets there will be nothing to replace them. Obviously, scope is good for our careers as well and more planes at the majors equals more jobs there and I am all for that, but if oil sky rockets again and the majors shrink again i hope our managements plan is solid going forward.

My prediction is that they will try something in the next couple of years that is their own operation besides regional flying for someone else. Not sure if it would be aquiring someone or just buying airplanes.
 
We'll see, I guess. Management's not dumb, but I don't have a lot of faith in them. That might be tainted by how they've treated their employees the past several years, though. I said this in another thread, but I'm looking at Pinnacle existing about as long as their major contract exists, and that would be the -200 contract until 2017. Yeah, we don't own any of them, but we're gonna have to suck pretty hard to lose that flying. After 2017.....everything (as of now) is a crap shoot, and I don't want to pin my long term hopes on that star.
 
Prediction is this...ALL SAABs will be phased out in the next 5-7 years (9L is returning airplanes as leases come up, 3 in 2010 and no plans to my knowledge to acquire more). MORE Q-400s will be ordered and anticipate a fleet of upwards of 100 by the end of the decade. Doubtful that Horizon in on the "horizon" (pardon the pun) as a purchase by PNCL Corp. That would be an even more daunting challenge side where integration, corporate culture, cost structure, etc...Not to mention a VERY senior pilot group that is accustomed to relatively high payscales. With MORE Q's purchased by the company, who knows, perhaps Alaska Air Group may outsource some of their lift to PNCL Corp and we become an Alaska Express. On the Jet side of the house, MORE -900s and the -200s are going the way of the dodo bird and will be parked in the desert. HIGH fuel costs will have as much to d o with it as trying to undercut mainline labor costs by putting 90-seat jets on more and more mainline routes...believe it! Final fleet numbers could be as high as 100+ -900s on the Pinnacle certificate. This would require a seniority list of about 2000 pilots, or 1000 LESS than we have today. Consolidation will also be painful for labor, but in 2012 according to some will be a banner year for legacy hiring.
 
BE19Pilot said:
Prediction is this...ALL SAABs will be phased out in the next 5-7 years (9L is returning airplanes as leases come up, 3 in 2010 and no plans to my knowledge to acquire more). MORE Q-400s will be ordered and anticipate a fleet of upwards of 100 by the end of the decade. Doubtful that Horizon in on the "horizon" (pardon the pun) as a purchase by PNCL Corp. That would be an even more daunting challenge side where integration, corporate culture, cost structure, etc...Not to mention a VERY senior pilot group that is accustomed to relatively high payscales. With MORE Q's purchased by the company, who knows, perhaps Alaska Air Group may outsource some of their lift to PNCL Corp and we become an Alaska Express. On the Jet side of the house, MORE -900s and the -200s are going the way of the dodo bird and will be parked in the desert. HIGH fuel costs will have as much to d o with it as trying to undercut mainline labor costs by putting 90-seat jets on more and more mainline routes...believe it! Final fleet numbers could be as high as 100+ -900s on the Pinnacle certificate. This would require a seniority list of about 2000 pilots, or 1000 LESS than we have today. Consolidation will also be painful for labor, but in 2012 according to some will be a banner year for legacy hiring.
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Not sure where the more -900s are going to come from unless Delta relaxes scope again, United/CAL fail in their attempt to at least but the brakes on outsourcing or maybe US Airways ditches Mesa. I agree that -200s will go away, but we're already at contractual minimums for the -200s until 2017. Now, when that contract is up, I doubt we'll see more than half of our -200s around here. I honestly don't see them being replaced by -900s, and if they are, it's a Bad Thing for us career wise unless we WANT to stay at Pinnacle. Means more -900s and fewer MD-88s, DC-9s or similar mainline aircraft.
 
kellwolf said:
Not sure where the more -900s are going to come from unless Delta relaxes scope again, United/CAL fail in their attempt to at least but the brakes on outsourcing or maybe US Airways ditches Mesa. I agree that -200s will go away, but we're already at contractual minimums for the -200s until 2017. Now, when that contract is up, I doubt we'll see more than half of our -200s around here. I honestly don't see them being replaced by -900s, and if they are, it's a Bad Thing for us career wise unless we WANT to stay at Pinnacle. Means more -900s and fewer MD-88s, DC-9s or similar mainline aircraft.
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Your right we really need to get to Mainline so we can get that pension started. Sorry, i'm stuck in EWR again with a broke aircraft (again not my doing), I needed a laugh.

I'd say Mesa's a possibility but they are still cheaper. I'd say it's far more likely one of the mainline pilot groups sells out some scope for 10-15% pay raise. Once one does, the others will cave.

Yes sir, I'll be single pilot in a A320 in ten years, Roger Cohen says I can.
 
Believe me, I don't think any of my earlier post bodes well for our combined list for those that want to get out of here, OR those that stay...Consolidation is going to mean fewer jobs at both mainline and the codeshares....believe it!
 
BE19Pilot said:
Prediction is this...ALL SAABs will be phased out in the next 5-7 years (9L is returning airplanes as leases come up, 3 in 2010 and no plans to my knowledge to acquire more). MORE Q-400s will be ordered and anticipate a fleet of upwards of 100 by the end of the decade. Doubtful that Horizon in on the "horizon" (pardon the pun) as a purchase by PNCL Corp. That would be an even more daunting challenge side where integration, corporate culture, cost structure, etc...Not to mention a VERY senior pilot group that is accustomed to relatively high payscales. With MORE Q's purchased by the company, who knows, perhaps Alaska Air Group may outsource some of their lift to PNCL Corp and we become an Alaska Express. On the Jet side of the house, MORE -900s and the -200s are going the way of the dodo bird and will be parked in the desert. HIGH fuel costs will have as much to d o with it as trying to undercut mainline labor costs by putting 90-seat jets on more and more mainline routes...believe it! Final fleet numbers could be as high as 100+ -900s on the Pinnacle certificate. This would require a seniority list of about 2000 pilots, or 1000 LESS than we have today. Consolidation will also be painful for labor, but in 2012 according to some will be a banner year for legacy hiring.
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Interesting analysis. Interesting how the company chose to announce Mesaba out of LGA right after the TA. My guess is there will be another anouncement right after we approve the contract (maybe why management is using a full court press to get this TA pushed through?)
 
ILLpilot said:
Interesting analysis. Interesting how the company chose to announce Mesaba out of LGA right after the TA. My guess is there will be another anouncement right after we approve the contract (maybe why management is using a full court press to get this TA pushed through?)
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Maybe, I think they are just adopting the Colgan way of bidding for contracts. Bid something you know you can't make money on in hopes that the company in question will just magically give you more flying out of the good of their heart. Meanwhile, subsidize the losses off your other flying.

I think Pinnacle is trying to kill off Mesa, take their flying any way possible, and act like Airways best friend. Come in cheap, do whatever they want, get as much business as you can, and when it doesn't work tell Airways you are filing Chapter 12 in 7 biz days and it's up to them if they want to renegotiate the contract or just lose the route to the hub.

Of course, mainline is run by geniuses who deserve their giant payscales and they'd never fall for that again. :rolleyes:
 
Surely this thread is a joke. Do we need more speculation when some people don't understand thousands of dollars in your pocket and extra days off with less intense work days are good?
 
jynxyjoe said:
Maybe, I think they are just adopting the Colgan way of bidding for contracts. Bid something you know you can't make money on in hopes that the company in question will just magically give you more flying out of the good of their heart. Meanwhile, subsidize the losses off your other flying.

I think Pinnacle is trying to kill off Mesa, take their flying any way possible, and act like Airways best friend. Come in cheap, do whatever they want, get as much business as you can, and when it doesn't work tell Airways you are filing Chapter 12 in 7 biz days and it's up to them if they want to renegotiate the contract or just lose the route to the hub.

Of course, mainline is run by geniuses who deserve their giant payscales and they'd never fall for that again. :rolleyes:
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Just heard the Mesaba LGA stuff is pro-rate. Good lord. No major wants to pay for the SAAB.

If gas gets expensive again, PNCL will not hesitate to pull the plug.

Jynx will the LGA SF go junior over there?
 
SmitteyB said:
Just heard the Mesaba LGA stuff is pro-rate. Good lord. No major wants to pay for the SAAB.

If gas gets expensive again, PNCL will not hesitate to pull the plug.

Jynx will the LGA SF go junior over there?
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I think may see a bizarre mix. There will be guys that want to go there from all parts of the seniority list. That'll be about 20 guys at most from the company, I'd bet more like 8, then the displacementss will go most junior. You'll have like 4 "senior" people 4 people that want to be there, then the rest will be aching for hearth and home.
 
OMG I was way off, LGA CA went senior, and expectedly junior on the FO side (save one, but he lives just north of EWR).
 
jynxyjoe said:
OMG I was way off, LGA CA went senior, and expectedly junior on the FO side (save one, but he lives just north of EWR).
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No more commuting for me either. Time to fly the saabomatic. I knew I would see the saab once during my time here at XJ. At least I got displaced, so no seat lock. You can imagine living 30 mins south of EWR what I eventually wanna end up in.
 
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