pilot shortage looming?

Even though the article doesn't really talk about a shortage of airline pilots, I just want to take this opportunity to say:

There will NEVER be a pilot shortage. EVER.
 
This is a career that has been proven to go from zero time to right seat in an RJ in less than a year.

...and HUNDREDS of ASAP/NASA reports. As someone involved in safety programs, I can assure you that, although completely true, it is a disservice to air safety to throw inexperienced/low aptitude (you need both qualities, and most airlines don't discriminate) in the right seat.

I know you weren't stating that, but just thought I'd tack it on to your post.
 
Shortage would imply that there aren't enough bodies to fill the slots available.
That just ain't so.

I would agree. To have an apples-to-apples discussion of "shortage", the term must have the same definition to all participants in the discussion (standby for a shortage definition food fight).

Since airlines are a business, it seems logical to look for a definition from that perspective. I'd guess that if they can carry out their business plan, airplanes are not parked, market share isn't lost and stockholders aren't forming pitchfork-wielding mobs at the GO front gate, there isn't a shortage.

I know...that definition doesn't address the overall operational/"what if" possibilities that most people can come up with here. That doesn't matter to management; the business plan matters. And, since it's their party, they decide who gets an invitation.

While an airline, in some theoretical scenario, may not be able to get an ideal candidate in terms of experience(and even "ideal candidate" requires a minimum definition), if they can get people with the license and enough experience/ability to get through training/IOE that'll do while those folks get some experience. If airplanes aren't crashing every week, there's no problem from a management standpoint.

AND THERE'LL ALWAYS BE ENOUGH OF THAT TYPE CANDIDATE.

For the most part, US legacy airlines just haven't come to that point in recent years. UAL did some hiring of low-time pilots many years ago but that's the only case I can remember. Experienced pilots are not in short supply here for a number of reasons.

The EU airlines have used low-time FOs for decades with no serious consequences, IIRC.

There is no US pilot shortage and there never will be.
 
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