Pilot Shortage - How Long Will It Go On?

I think what is more likely to happen is the airline industry could go the way of the American Cruise ship industry (there isn't one anymore)
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I certainly doubt it. I don't think the government, of all people, would let the airline industry go under. I think our economy is to the point to where we have placed so much reliance on aviation for that to happen.
 
Always Moving said:
IT is hard to predict.

THERE IS NO WAY A US MAJOR WILL HIRE ASIANS!
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Don't be too sure, globalation is coming, hell were already pretty much a global economy already.

Open skies and other laws are already erroding our current cabotage laws. If we do no remain ever vigilant, you will see China Airlines doing PHX-CLT!

Get involved with ALPA, AOPA and your local and federal representation, they're our front line defense again further cabotage errosion!
 
Again! I can not believe those words are coming from Americans.
It was You guys the one imposing this globalization to everyone!

Don't you like competition, well there you have it, and it will be cheaper tickets, may be sold at WALLMART!
 
Age 65 will give the airlines an extra five years to breathe. By then, barring some unforseen miracle, the US economy will be in freefall. As the airlines shrink, the pilot ranks will thin with attrition at a similar speed. What spots do open up will be filled by 1500 hour wunderkinder who have "paid their dues" pushing buttons in a CRJ and are all too willing to "upgrade" to a similar level of poor treatment on a "big plane". The one bright spot will be for those who are willing to be expats, but remember that expat contracts are much more interested in type ratings and glass experience than in 1000 TPIC or (forgive the editorial content) actual rubber-to-road flying experience.

Do I sound bitter? Not yet, but I'm getting there. The future is not terribly bright for those of us who fly old airplanes at night. I'm afraid that pretty soon we'll be sleeping under the wheelbarrow we bought to carry our balls around. Which brings me to the point. Loath though I am to say it: If you're absolutely commited to being a pilot for a living (and what dewy-eyed kid on a message board is really going to listen when you say "don't do it"?), then you really ought to get on board at the first less-crappy regional that knocks on your door. Preferably in a jet. Suffer for a while, then upgrade and be prepared to learn a different language.
 
True dat--look at what you can get in the developing world flying a CRJ. I've seen captain contracts average 70-130K with free housing in the best hotels, local taxes paid, and of course your first 85K of foreign-earned income isn't subject to US Fed income tax. That's once you have 500 hrs on type in either seat.

As for the 1000 TPIC thing...it has always been true that TPIC isn't near as big of a deal abroad as it is in the US. It's always more about seat position and type everywhere else on Earth. I'm not aware of many foreign companies or contract recruiters who would give preference to an FO applicant with 1000 TPIC on a different type than they fly, vs. a guy with 500 SIC on the type they fly. In the US, it's the opposite--1000 TPIC in a CRJ gets you closer to 737 FO than 500 SIC ON a 737.

It actually makes sense when you look at the different training and crew mentality overseas (JAA and Asia especially)...the US system emphasizes the individual pilot and his/her PIC skills, whereas the JAA/Asian authorities and companies emphasize the crew...to the extent that you gotta have a multi-crew cooperation course just to get hired over there.

Because of this, I don't think the US will get hit by the b.s. MPL as bad as the Euro and Asian operators. This is evidenced by most majors requiring 1000 TPIC, regardless of whether it was on their type or not. Whereas in Europe, those operators essentially already operate in a MPL-type concept (i.e. Ryanair and EasyJet hiring 0-200 hrs cadets, and training them to their ops and their a/c from day one).

The Europeans are already halfway to MPL training with their line training programs and cadet programs (always have been).
 
Boris Badenov said:
Do I sound bitter? Not yet, but I'm getting there. The future is not terribly bright for those of us who fly old airplanes at night. I'm afraid that pretty soon we'll be sleeping under the wheelbarrow we bought to carry our balls around. Which brings me to the point. Loath though I am to say it: If you're absolutely commited to being a pilot for a living (and what dewy-eyed kid on a message board is really going to listen when you say "don't do it"?), then you really ought to get on board at the first less-crappy regional that knocks on your door. Preferably in a jet. Suffer for a while, then upgrade and be prepared to learn a diffe rent language.
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Do you sound bitter? Yes. I never said I was "absolutely committed to being a pilot for a living"; in fact, I'm far from committed. It's just one of the many options I'm looking at. And why are you calling me a "dewy-eyed kid"? First, I'm not exactly a kid. Second, you were a kid once. Did you forget that?

Anyway, thanks for the replies. :)
 
Boris Badenov said:
Age 65 will give the airlines an extra five years to breathe. By then, barring some unforseen miracle, the US economy will be in freefall.
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What do you mean by "the US economy will be in free fall?" It sounds like you're suggesting a severe economic downturn, but due to what cause?
 
Massive foreign debt, deficit spending beyond the ability of our fiat money based economy to cover, certain shifts in global power, insane consumer spending coupled with negative savings levels. The list goes on. The question of when the economic chickens that were hatched in the 60s "Great Society" and nurtured on willful ignorance and debt is no longer one "if" but "when" and "how bad". My prediction is "in 5-10 years" and "Great Depression +"
 
Boris Badenov said:
OK. Well, in that case, I'd just say "I think you can probably find a better career".
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That could be said about any career I name - lawyer, accountant, doctor, and all the rest of those generic careers that everyone wants to get into.

I want something different, something more enticing and proactive. Something that I'm not going to be bored with after five years of doing it.

Again, thanks for the replies everyone!
 
Some very interesting ideas brought up in this thread. Aviation has never been a stable industry, and it sure as hell isn't about to become one. The airline job that used to be the pinnacle of job security and benefits within and industry known for instability is no longer that same mark of security. If anything, I would point to freight and corporate being the best prospects for long term gainful employment within this industry.

Now, as to the state of the US economy and its future prospects, there are significant issues there. This nation is massively in debt, only getting further into debt, and has only been able to hold off the long term problems by our ability to never default on a T-bill. Sure, many US companies are quite profitable, mainly US global companies. However, the average US citizen is largely, for lack of a better word, an idiot. Paycheck to paycheck living, no savings, no retirement planning, massively in debt as well. All of them seem to think Uncle Sam can pick up the slack when it catches up, which he used to be able to until Uncle Sam lost his high ranking place within the modern, industrialized world.

Things are only going to get interesting from here...
 
PatrickCPS said:
If anything, I would point to freight and corporate being the best prospects for long term gainful employment within this industry.
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Chew on this. The first aircraft to be fully automated (no pilots) will be cargo aircraft. You think that can happen in the next 30 years?
 
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