Pilot Hiring Numbers

T

TallFlyer

Well-Known Member
A really interesting post over on APC regarding an analysis that someone has created using existing fleet, payscale, retirement, and hiring numbers. I make no claims of accuracy but it's interesting reading none the less.....

I ran some hiring numbers and thought this might be interesting Data, since it seems like were always talking about pilot hiring demand, but don't ever seem to see any real numbers to show what is happening from a larger perspective. I figured since we know what an airline aircraft order schedule looks like, and what aircraft are suppose to be replaced by that order with their fleet retirement schedule, we can reasonably project the size of an airlines fleet for the next few years. I assumed after 2020 we would see stagnant fleet sizes( just to be on the safe side in projecting pilot demand- since few orders extend beyond that year).

With this model we can project their pilot demand by multiplying the number of aircraft in their fleet by their current pilot to aircraft ratio. (For Example An Airline that has 3100 pilots and about 315 aircraft- so it takes about 10 pilots to run each aircraft) If this Airline were to grow by 1 airplane they would need 10 more pilots.

On top of their growth/shrinkage pilot requirements we can add their mandatory pilot retirements which are also fairly public knowledge. So we can add the number of pilots they need from growth each year to the number of pilots that are projected to retire to get an idea of how many pilots will be needed from that airline year after year.

Lots of things are variable (like aircraft order schedules, exercising aircraft options, pilots retiring early, pilot productivity rules, etc) so this model is a snapshot of current hiring projection from a conservative viewpoint. I put this data on my website since I didn't know how to put the graphs and tables onto this forum. I'll post additional airlines and clean up the format as I have time. Just remember these are just estimates, but I thought the calculated guess's were interesting.

Because its a conservative HR projection model over the next 10-20 years we can get a better idea of how long it will take to get to 50% seniority for upgrade for those who get hired in the next few years at the majors, based upon current aircraft orders/retirements and pilot retirements.

The most interesting thing I found in all of this was that for the next 5 to 10 years most regional FO's can expect to be in the right seat for at least 5 years, even during the most intense hiring in the next 6 years. Just because the Regional pool is so much larger compared to the Mainline pilot demand than it was 30 years ago on the front side of this wave. So we will see only 10% a year from the Regional's go to the majors. That's still 5 year upgrades.
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http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/
 
TotalPDemand.jpg


This is the one that sums it all up the best.
 
I'm just waiting for 2001 a Space Odyssey to become reality so we all truly do have 3 moon landings... on the dark side.
 
None of this accounts for any additional terrorist attacks, Age 67 (or higher), war with Iran, oil at $150-$200/barrel, another economic recession, etc.

Personally, I wouldn't put too much faith in those charts.
 
Wow, so even with all the projected legacy/major retirements, less than 10% of the regional pilot force per year will get hired at the majors. Bummer, the impending retirement avalanche was supposed to mean a fast track to (insert dream airline here).

But even more interesting is what this means for hiring at the regionals. According to the data, 600+ mainline pilots are retiring starting next year. It hits 1000+ in 2016. Let's assume that majors will hire the vast majority of their replacements from regional carriers.

Now, somebody tell me what happens when any particular regional is losing, say 100 pilots annually to mainline, but can't lower hiring minimums in orderto replace said pilots. Imagine if HR5900 had been law during the 04-07 hiring boom....
So ladies and gents, this is where I predict the pilot shortage will be - NOT at the highly coveted majors but at the bottom of the pilot supply pool. In fact, Republic Airways is so desperate, they're already paying $5000 if candidates interview successfully and get hired - link

And then there's this great analysis from the National Association of Flight Instructors with regard to pilot supply over the coming years.


Industry forecasts predict that the North American aviation industry will need nearly 82,800 pilots over the next twenty years. The ability of the flight training industry, given the current training model and curricula, to meet that demand is the subject of much speculation considering new rulemaking and regulations. The predicted shortages in the population of qualified pilots combined with new, and potentially more restrictive requirements to serve as a pilot in the Part 121 environment cause the flight training industry to be seriously concerned about its protracted ability to supply pilots to meet the growing need. If the capacity for training is not able to meet these demands, there is potential for serious threat to the viability of domestic air transportation. Potentially compounding the problem is historic annual declines in pilot certification rates, an aging instructor workforce, and reduced numbers of instructors who are becoming certified. In light of new rulemaking, it is unlikely that the flight training industry will be able to offer a continuous supply of qualified pilot to meet the demands of commercial carriers. Additionally, there is a detrimental, implicit mandate that career minded pilots work as a flight instructor to gain the experience required to qualify them for Part 121 employment. The industry should not look to the flight instruction community as the training ground for its Part 121 pilots....
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Read the rest here: http://www.nafinet.org/whitepaper.aspx

Comments, thoughts?
 
My concern here is that the airlines look to foreign nationals to cover the flying -or- we have Air Serbia flying between LGA and ORD ten times a day.
 
I thought the new DL TA is showing a dramatic drop in regional feed in favor of mid size mainline aircraft....so I still don't see there being this "shortage." Not trying to be a jerk.
 
DeuceOfAces said:
Wow, so even with all the projected legacy/major retirements, less than 10% of the regional pilot force per year will get hired at the majors. Bummer, the impending retirement avalanche was supposed to mean a fast track to (insert dream airline here).

But even more interesting is what this means for hiring at the regionals. According to the data, 600+ mainline pilots are retiring starting next year. It hits 1000+ in 2016. Let's assume that majors will hire the vast majority of their replacements from regional carriers.

Now, somebody tell me what happens when any particular regional is losing, say 100 pilots annually to mainline, but can't lower hiring minimums in orderto replace said pilots. Imagine if HR5900 had been law during the 04-07 hiring boom....
So ladies and gents, this is where I predict the pilot shortage will be - NOT at the highly coveted majors but at the bottom of the pilot supply pool. In fact, Republic Airways is so desperate, they're already paying $5000 if candidates interview successfully and get hired - link

And then there's this great analysis from the National Association of Flight Instructors with regard to pilot supply over the coming years.





Read the rest here: http://www.nafinet.org/whitepaper.aspx

Comments, thoughts?
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The people who run airlines are not fools. They will let the pilot supply dry up a bit for the bottom feeding regionals, but nothing that will impact their bottom line. They will then use these airlines as an example as to why congress needs to carve out a section for reduced mins based on some BS additional training they will provide and they will push for a multi crew pilot program to be authorized, thus allowing them to bypass the training market all together and control the supply of workers.

It doesnt benefit them to leave paying customers sitting in the terminal because there isn't a pilot to fly the plane. It does benefit them to have a pilot who makes 30k a year, 15k of which is used to "pay back" the airline for training expenses for the first few years of their employment.
 
DeuceOfAces said:
Now, somebody tell me what happens when any particular regional is losing, say 100 pilots annually to mainline, but can't lower hiring minimums in orderto replace said pilots. Imagine if HR5900 had been law during the 04-07 hiring boom....
So ladies and gents, this is where I predict the pilot shortage will be - NOT at the highly coveted majors but at the bottom of the pilot supply pool. In fact, Republic Airways is so desperate, they're already paying $5000 if candidates interview successfully and get hired - link


Comments, thoughts?
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This has been my thoughts too. Are we going to see a vast majority of the smallest regional airlines go under due to the fact that they will not be able to keep their fleets staffed because of the new regs? Hopes would be that because of these higher minimums and reduced supply of "qualified" pilots, the regionals that survive will have to raise the bar of incentives for the new wave of "qualified" pilots who meet these new standards, for example as we saw the link showing Republic offering a 5k signing bonus. Now that is not a whole lot, but a start?

I was not one of the guys who was fortuanate to go from college/commercial (250 hrs) right to a shiny jet job. I instructed almost 850 hrs, had a mapping job for 2 yrs before I was even considered. Talking with some of the older guys who went to regionals back in the early to mid 90's, something like that was a common career track, with exception some of them had close to 1500 hrs dual give, then on the a 135 for a few years, then on to a regional.

I am far from being a pro on predicting what the industry will do, but I do know the law of supply and demand and I have a feeling things may get ugly before they get better. If some of the smaller Regionals can't keep a steady supply to fly their aircraft because of these new mins, they can't complete as many flights, means they don't get paid.

I left the regional I was with bc of an opportunity to move from the turbo prop to a Citation, no it was not shiny jet syndrome, actually moved into a Baron first. It was for a better pay and QOL, and then was fortuanate to get a type out of it too. I had considered a move back to the regional, but to me it seems like the next 5 years or more at the level is going to get messy.... correct me if I am wrong.
 
DeuceOfAces said:
But even more interesting is what this means for hiring at the regionals. According to the data, 600+ mainline pilots are retiring starting next year. It hits 1000+ in 2016. Let's assume that majors will hire the vast majority of their replacements from regional carriers.

Now, somebody tell me what happens when any particular regional is losing, say 100 pilots annually to mainline, but can't lower hiring minimums in orderto replace said pilots. Imagine if HR5900 had been law during the 04-07 hiring boom....
So ladies and gents, this is where I predict the pilot shortage will be - NOT at the highly coveted majors but at the bottom of the pilot supply pool. In fact, Republic Airways is so desperate, they're already paying $5000 if candidates interview successfully and get hired - link

And then there's this great analysis from the National Association of Flight Instructors with regard to pilot supply over the coming years.

Read the rest here: http://www.nafinet.org/whitepaper.aspx

Comments, thoughts?
Click to expand...
I agree. You have to look at the trickle-down effects, not just the hiring numbers at a few carriers. The regional carriers will have to consistently hire in large numbers, for a fairly long period of time. No one can say that they won't increase compensation, because it's already started. You mentioned Republic's signing bonus. They won't be the last. If they do it, others will have to compete. So now we have a regional workforce who's costs are growing across the board. These higher costs will have to be reflected in their major airline contracts/code-share agreements in order to survive. Depending on how much, the contracting carrier may very well decide that it's not profitable to contract out flying for 76 seat jets, when they could fly a 717 or Short-Bus at their own company. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's possible. It seems to be what Delta is positioning themselves for with their new 717's and TA (albiet with debatable scope).

You also have to look at a HUGE number of senior regional captains for whom it is not financially responsible to change jobs, even if it is to UAL/DAL/AA/Whoever. Companies like QX are filled with people like this. In the last AS hiring window, there was a very limited number of QX captains that applied. This cuts the effective 'pool' of regional pilots quite significantly.

Matt13C said:
The people who run airlines are not fools. They will let the pilot supply dry up a bit for the bottom feeding regionals, but nothing that will impact their bottom line. They will then use these airlines as an example as to why congress needs to carve out a section for reduced mins based on some BS additional training they will provide and they will push for a multi crew pilot program to be authorized, thus allowing them to bypass the training market all together and control the supply of workers.

It doesnt benefit them to leave paying customers sitting in the terminal because there isn't a pilot to fly the plane. It does benefit them to have a pilot who makes 30k a year, 15k of which is used to "pay back" the airline for training expenses for the first few years of their employment.
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I see your point but I do think that it takes so many years to get Congress to do anything, that even if they do succeed, it will be too little, and too late.
 
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