I guess it took me about 5 to get to a "major". Keep in mind, I got my license in June of 2001. And we know what happened in September. That put a lot of career paths in hold, not to mention a flurry of national carriers going under.
So, there's a chance that with the current hiring trends that come with a profitable industry, and impending retirement trends (boomers punching out), that getting to a major could take less time.
But, as
@manniax said, life in this industry is rarely dull. Another war and oil spike or economic fallout could reverse all the hiring trends and next you know there are furlough letters going out.