Mythical pilot shortage finally found

ZOMGZZZ. I better take out a huge loan and go full time. I know it will work 'cus pilots make like a billion dollars a year!
 
The shortage WILL arrive...with the Mesiah. You can have faith but don't hold your breath. You might die waiting.
 
While I think things are looking up for us sometimes these articles get a little to "yay jobs for everyone!"

Especially when they say xxxx number of aircraft are being built and bought, because they never mention how many buckets of bolts the new planes are replacing...
 
spasekace said:
It's here. For real this time. No really, it's a coming!
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After filtering out the BS, the basic truth is that we are in the begining of a turnaround. As 65 kicks in, the economy begins to recover, and the new rules take effect, the airlines will have to start hiring in serious numbers over the next 5 years.

Once airlines start hiring, that typically has a positive effect across the whole industry.

I wouldn't call it a shortage, but it is good news.


A shortage is when the Majors have trouble staffing their planes, but that day is nowhere near.
 
USMCmech said:
After filtering out the BS, the basic truth is that we are in the begining of a turnaround. As 65 kicks in, the economy begins to recover, and the new rules take effect, the airlines will have to start hiring in serious numbers over the next 5 years.

Once airlines start hiring, that typically has a positive effect across the whole industry.

I wouldn't call it a shortage, but it is good news.


A shortage is when the Majors have trouble staffing their planes, but that day is nowhere near.
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+1, oh, and highlighted the most important fact in that statement.
 
I agree with USMCmech and have defended the "things are getting better" position quite a bit.

My big worries though are the UAL/CAL merger and the fact that having large transport category aircraft with 100+ passengers being flown single pilot is actually in consideration. Ryanair (the Irish one) is trying to get approved to do this.:mad:
 
I think people confuse a "pilot shortage" with a "large need for pilots". A pilot shortage would be if the need for pilots exceeded the number of pilots on the street. Just because a ton of jobs become available doesn't mean there is a pilot shortage. Between every CFI who meets minimums, every PPL who will be a CFI meeting minimums by the time "the floodgates" open, every pilot on furlough, everyone at the regionals waiting to go mainline, every guy military guy that wants to fly for the airlines, every expat waiting for a shot at a decent paying US airline, every freight dog waiting to move up, and everyone still on the street after airlines like ATA, Aloha, and Champion went under, I think there are plenty of candidates for all the airline jobs. If anything, I think there will be a pretty big need for CFIs, traffic watch, and all that other low time stuff with everyone moving up, but don't hold your breath that the airlines will be taking "everyone with a pulse" again. Just my opinion.
 
ChasenSFO said:
I think people confuse a "pilot shortage" with a "large need for pilots". A pilot shortage would be if the need for pilots exceeded the number of pilots on the street. Just because a ton of jobs become available doesn't mean there is a pilot shortage. Between every CFI who meets minimums, every PPL who will be a CFI meeting minimums by the time "the floodgates" open, every pilot on furlough, everyone at the regionals waiting to go mainline, every guy military guy that wants to fly for the airlines, every expat waiting for a shot at a decent paying US airline, every freight dog waiting to move up, and everyone still on the street after airlines like ATA, Aloha, and Champion went under, I think there are plenty of candidates for all the airline jobs. If anything, I think there will be a pretty big need for CFIs, traffic watch, and all that other low time stuff with everyone moving up, but don't hold your breath that the airlines will be taking "everyone with a pulse" again. Just my opinion.
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True, but thats idea, you have to pay your dues and build your time. We don't need a shortage, just jobs available to give us hope. Then you have something to build too. The problem from early 08 and throughout 09 was that there were no jobs. So experience really didn't matter then. At least now now theres a goal for everyone to reach and hope for and right now it looks like that minimum goal is about 1500TT and 100Multi, competitive about 2000TT and 200 multi with some turbine experience. At least for the regionals anyways. :beer:
 
What's gonna make this really interesting is the nonavailability of credit for financing student training loans. Without the means to finance training, the pool of eligibles will shrink considerably; rich kids can't possibly meet all the demand themselves! Add this to the new ATP requirement which will kick in shortly after Age 65 retirements begin, and there could very well be a shortage of qualified pilots.
 
aloft said:
What's gonna make this really interesting is the nonavailability of credit for financing student training loans. Without the means to finance training, the pool of eligibles will shrink considerably; rich kids can't possibly meet all the demand themselves! Add this to the new ATP requirement which will kick in shortly after Age 65 retirements begin, and there could very well be a shortage of qualified pilots.
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Will there be a shortage of pilots, or will the airlines shift flying back to mainline carriers? Bigger aircraft carry more people and cause the demand for pilots to be reduced. this case would be good for airline pilots as the mainline careers field would be back.

The regionals could also fight for larger aircraft and if that happens pilot unions had better be prepared so they don't get screwed over like over at republic (99 seats!)

The last "pilot shortage" wasn't even technically a shortage as all it was was an increase in outsourcing that caused the "shortage". Had they used larger mainline aircraft, the need for pilots wouldn't have been so great.
 
Maurus said:
Will there be a shortage of pilots, or will the airlines shift flying back to mainline carriers? Bigger aircraft carry more people and cause the demand for pilots to be reduced. this case would be good for airline pilots as the mainline careers field would be back.

The regionals could also fight for larger aircraft and if that happens pilot unions had better be prepared so they don't get screwed over like over at republic (99 seats!)

The last "pilot shortage" wasn't even technically a shortage as all it was was an increase in outsourcing that caused the "shortage". Had they used larger mainline aircraft, the need for pilots wouldn't have been so great.
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Possibly both.
 
aloft said:
What's gonna make this really interesting is the nonavailability of credit for financing student training loans. Without the means to finance training, the pool of eligibles will shrink considerably; rich kids can't possibly meet all the demand themselves! Add this to the new ATP requirement which will kick in shortly after Age 65 retirements begin, and there could very well be a shortage of qualified pilots.
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Hadn't thought about that, interesting perspective.
 
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