Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal. ?

[MikeD]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

From a Missleteer I know

"No question that's a missile, either a ballistic missle or a long-range antiaircraft weapon. At one point in the video the light at the plume gets noticeably brighter, which looks to me like staging, i.e., the firing of a second (or third) stage. I'd guess this is at least a two-stage ballisitc missile. It might have been sea launched, or depending on the vantage point relative to Catalina Island it may have been a launch out of Vandenberg. Sure looks like it's aimed down the Pacific Test Range."

Agree about the plume behind it. It's no airplane. There are no contrails like that from planes, and its obviously rocket exhaust from a ballistic-type missile. I personally think John Pike is full of it. If it was out of VBG though, then the helo crew would likely have known that or it would've otherwise been seen as such from the smoke back to the ground. It appears, and was reported as, having originated from far offshore, and not over one of the Channel Islands.

 

[Minuteman]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

...so wherever it went we know where it landed...I hope!

If it was a Chinese sub and they were feeling daring, it splashed-down in the Taiwan Strait, this time from the other side of the island.

 

[Polar742]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

From the NOTAMS:

KZLA LOS ANGELES (ARTCC)PALMDALE, CA.
!SUAW 11/102 (KZLA A2840/10) ZLA AIRSPACE W532S ACT SFC-UNL WEF 1011091600-1011100300
!SUAW 11/101 (KZLA A2839/10) ZLA AIRSPACE W532N ACT SFC-UNL WEF 1011091600-1011100300
!SUAW 11/100 ZLA AIRSPACE W532E ACT SFC-UNL WEF 1011091600-1011100300
!SUAW 11/084 (KZLA A2837/10) ZLA AIRSPACE W61 ACT SFC-UNL WEF 1011091530-1011100300
!SUAW 11/083 (KZLA A2838/10) ZLA AIRSPACE W60 ACT SFC-UNL WEF 1011091530-1011100300
!SUAW 11/082 (KZLA A2836/10) ZLA AIRSPACE W290 ACT SFC-UNL WEF 1011091530-1011100300
!SUAW 11/081 (KZLA A2835/10) ZLA AIRSPACE W289N ACT SFC-UNL WEF 1011091530-1011100300
!SUAW 11/080 (KZLA A2834/10) ZLA AIRSPACE W289 ACT SFC-UNL WEF 1011091530-1011100300

SFC-UNL tells me they're throwing stuff up high. Do the Z conversion and the effectivity falls fairly nicely within our mystery shot.

Sounds like the left hand and right hand got some things confused.

 

[mrivc211]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

Having seen a number of rocket launches in my time, it looks the same.

Do you remember me telling you about my iranian born friend who graduated from West Point? Very smart guy, finished UC Irvines MBA program and is now finishing up his PHD. He just got the call today......special advisor to General Patreuas. We were having coffee 3 days ago and he gets a call from Patreuas.....he was bouncing off the wall. He's only 30. Talk about accomplishing so much at such a young age. Iranian-Americans are coming up. He is also spearheading the equivalent of AIPAC for Iranian-Americans.

 

[KSCessnaDriver]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

SFC-UNL tells me they're throwing stuff up high. Do the Z conversion and the effectivity falls fairly nicely within our mystery shot.

Sounds like the left hand and right hand got some things confused.

Maybe my math is off, but I show those NOTAMs as being effective from 7AM local on the 9th, which would put the launch about 12 hours before those.

 

[RICHARD5]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

It didn't launch from VGB. Search traffic out of Magu.

 

[MikeD]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

From the NOTAMS:



SFC-UNL tells me they're throwing stuff up high. Do the Z conversion and the effectivity falls fairly nicely within our mystery shot.

Sounds like the left hand and right hand got some things confused.

Couple of problems though, Martin. Even if within the time, there are certain things that the DOD doesn't get left hand/right hand confused with. And they certainly wouldn't go making a public statement about it not being ours without having quickly checked over to Mugu/Vandy/etc and asking "hey guys, just to double check, have you launched anything today?" Ballistic missile launches are huge deals. And too, the type of missile we're seeing isn't the type launched out of that area except from Vandenburg, and this one didn't originate on land.

Something is BS.

 

[MikeD]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

Do you remember me telling you about my iranian born friend who graduated from West Point? Very smart guy, finished UC Irvines MBA program and is now finishing up his PHD. He just got the call today......special advisor to General Patreuas. We were having coffee 3 days ago and he gets a call from Patreuas.....he was bouncing off the wall. He's only 30. Talk about accomplishing so much at such a young age. Iranian-Americans are coming up. He is also spearheading the equivalent of AIPAC for Iranian-Americans.

We're finally getting somewhere and doing things! Good accomplishment!

There's him, then there's me who quit.

 

[Captainchris777]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

U.S. sees no threat in mystery 'missile'
Pentagon says it's baffled, but scientists suggest it's just a jetliner with spectacular contrail


[YT]U2qKMchcgzk[/YT]

To be honest and not sound like a "chemtrai" conspiracy theorist/paranoid person, the past two weeks here in southern california we have had weird contrail patterns and shapes. A lot of them do not even look that high and most were not straight like a normal airway should (unless they got vectored several times)

Our weather has been 96 F then down to the 60's a few days later. We were also forecasted to have no rain but not more than 48 hours of the sky being covered in contrail it would rain. And a lot of people I notice or talk to have some kind of allergy, sneeze attacks going on.

 

[RICHARD5]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

I'm currently in Victorville. Increased incidence of allergies is easily explained by high winds dominating the region. Any visible contrails (chemtrails) would disperse far to the downwind. So, for the purpose of the chemtrail/allergy argument, one should find a higher incidence downwind. (FYI: google, "downwinder")

I too have observed unusual looking contrails over the past several days. But consider the qualifications of the observers. I, being simply a pilot with a long held interest in all things aviation, am still only a layman. I am not an expert on contrail formation/dispersion. However, I can readily discern the azimuth and other aspects of such phenomena. How much more of those who are trained observers?

My bet is in 2 parts. One, the spooks have responded to increased public demand for explanation by issuing a BS press release while they bide their time to figure out WTF is going on. That assumes it wasn't ours. Two, assuming it was ours, they are trying to figure out how to dismiss a widely observed phenomena. Swamp gas just doesn't cut it in this instance.

I'm coming down on the side that it was ours--one that got away near a metropolitan area--and for whatever reason they can't yet say why and how. Perhaps it contained MIRV (or whatever it's called these days) therefore is double double secret. Congressional hearings, if it comes to that, will be a joke and mainly to placate the populace.

 

[TXTBOOK]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

Isn't Vandenburg and Point Mugu NAS too far north for this? And San Nicolas Island too far south?

 

[RICHARD5]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

mrivc211, your friend is to be congratulated and I suspect he and you will remember that moment for years to come. I applaud such accomplishment. Yet, he is only one in a long line of Iranians who have risen to that measure of success. Even in the explosive years of the late 1970s I knew several immigrants from Iran who enjoyed equal achievement.

 

[MikeD]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

Isn't Vandenburg and Point Mugu NAS too far north for this? And San Nicolas Island too far south?

It appears to have originated between Catalina Island and the Channel Islands, making your assertion correct. Assuming the helicopters video footage was looking generally west, the missile appears to being rising vertically and towards the northwest.

 

[Minuteman]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

Possibly US Airways Flight 808?

 

[Mike Lewis]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

I wonder if anyone has checked with the Russians. Not that they were behind it, but they've probably got the most eyes on us. If it has been a missile, I assume they've got early warning satellites that should have picked up something.

I remember when we were working Y2K they set up a facility in Colorado Springs called the "Center for Strategic Stability" in which the Russians and Americans sat side by side and shared data in case of an accidental launch. Don't know if that's still active, but it might worth saying, "Hey, Ivan, did YOU happen to see anything launch off our coast the other day?"

 

[MikeD]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

Possibly US Airways Flight 808?

Assuming the airliner thing, too far south and trajectory doesn't match. But that smoke is a rocket exhaust plume, with a glow of a booster; not a contrail or aircraft exhaust. And if it were an optical illusion coming at us, we wouldn't see the glow of the booster on the ass end, nor would we see that on an airliner anyway.

Plus, again if it was an aircraft/airliner, the DOD and FAA would be able to confirm/deny this nearly instantly; WAY before going public with a statement of "we don't know what it was."

 

[Polar742]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

Maybe my math is off, but I show those NOTAMs as being effective from 7AM local on the 9th, which would put the launch about 12 hours before those.

I thought the launch was on the 9th, but then realized I'm in China and yesterday was the 9th HERE, not there. My bad.

Couple of problems though, Martin. Even if within the time, there are certain things that the DOD doesn't get left hand/right hand confused with. And they certainly wouldn't go making a public statement about it not being ours without having quickly checked over to Mugu/Vandy/etc and asking "hey guys, just to double check, have you launched anything today?" Ballistic missile launches are huge deals. And too, the type of missile we're seeing isn't the type launched out of that area except from Vandenburg, and this one didn't originate on land.

Something is BS.

I agree it's BS.

The question is did we screw up that badly? If not, whose boat was it? I'd put money on someone's newly acquired Russian diesel/electric. I think if it was one of the "sabre-rattlers" they'd be all in the press about it. Was it the Iranians? The Pakistanis? Did the cartels get a hold of one?

 

[Roger, Roger]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

CHEMTRAILS!!!!!!1111one

 

[MikeD]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

I agree it's BS.

The question is did we screw up that badly? If not, whose boat was it? I'd put money on someone's newly acquired Russian diesel/electric. I think if it was one of the "sabre-rattlers" they'd be all in the press about it. Was it the Iranians? The Pakistanis? Did the cartels get a hold of one?

I've tried to think of foreigners. The Iranians have only regular subs. The Russians have missile boats, but they'd be off the Atlantic normally. The Chinese I could see in the Pacific. Then again, our intel could have missed things just as they missed that the Iranians have as many F-14s operational as they did a few years ago.

Or it could be us. It just doesn't add up. I know the globalsecurity dude Pike came out with the "its an airliner and optical illusion", but going tinfoil hat again, I think that was what he may have been told to say. There's thought that the globalsecurity site is the DODs "controlled leak" source anyway.

 

[TXTBOOK]

Re: Mystery Missile or Jetliner Contrail over Southern Cal.

Assuming the airliner thing, too far south and trajectory doesn't match. But that smoke is a rocket exhaust plume, with a glow of a booster; not a contrail or aircraft exhaust. And if it were an optical illusion coming at us, we wouldn't see the glow of the booster on the ass end, nor would we see that on an airliner anyway.

Plus, again if it was an aircraft/airliner, the DOD and FAA would be able to confirm/deny this nearly instantly; WAY before going public with a statement of "we don't know what it was."

I hate it when people argue with people obviously more qualified but them, but consider the following:

1) The glow of the "booster" is amplified by the sunset, just like the rest of the sky?
2) It was too far south (I'm assuming you know the common airliner routes), but this "aircraft" was vectored around some of the activity from the two carrier's working on their respective quals?
3) DOD and FAA have been unable to confirm/deny this because they looked at the radar for something moving more or less vertically at a high speed (looking for a rocket). They were not looking for something moving horizontally, normally, and squawking (going with the airliner theory).