Works wonders on errant cats!
Keep staying the course? Investing in volatile times
- Thread starter woodreau
- Start date
Works wonders on errant cats!
I pulled all my non-retirement investments out of the stock market and put it into treasury bonds right after the inauguration and I'm feeling pretty good about it now. We're planning to use that money to buy an investment property and I expected the new administration to bring volatility, so I didn't want to risk it. I did put a little bit back in buying indovidual stocks of some large foreign defense contractors. Some are up, some are down, that's the beauty of diversification I guess. I'll stay on that bet for a while and see what happens. It's not a lot of money, less than an average new car these days, it's more of a gamble to see if my intuition is right.
My taxable investments took a bad haircut.
I thought this was all about 401k’s, investments and certain administrations being good for business? Certainly doesn’t feel like it.
I’m not gonna lie… I took everything out of the market a while back and put it in short term 4.3% CDs or bonds. My entire adult investing life I would have said the same thing CC says now… ride it out - dollar cost average - etc. I let it all ride in the 2008 recession and did wonderfully.
Now? This is crazy town and I’m not risking it 10-15 years from retirement. Admittedly 100% emotional, non-fact based decision, but I’m out for a while.
ppragman
FLIPY FLAPS!
well, here's the thing... you have a couple options
you can dollar cost average and keep doing your thing. If things don't end up becoming apocalyptic you'll be fine and make a ton of money though you might have to wait for it longer than you'd have liked.
In the event of:
civil war
dictatorship
alien invasion
Canadian annexation of the Pacific Northwest
the inevitable horse uprising
the revolt of the objects (that's what these guys were worried about, also they made erotic pottery)
pole shift
a fist fight between Jesus and Saoshyant over who's mom was better
it turning out that everyone left of center was actually a communist and AOC actually turns out to be literal Stalin
meteor impact
Children of Men + The Running Man + Idiocracy + Blade Runner = Future
then your money is not going to be worth that much anyway. We have a rocky few years coming up, but the reality is almost certainly that most things will continue to get better for most people (and I hope I manage to stay out of the demographic where things get much much worse).
So I keep putting in my contributions. In most months that is into VOO but occasionally I put my money into a smattering of companies that I believe in. If you end up being right, I'll be asking you for a small loan. I will say that my Poutine Futures are doing terrible right now - you probably shouldn't invest in those.
True, true.
Right now I’m still making 4.3% so that’s something. And it’s all short term so I can get back in if the crazy becomes tolerable.
ppragman
FLIPY FLAPS!
yeah, my time horizon is basically like 5 years, anything I buy isn't going to change for 5 years. Otherwise I don't think I could sleep at night.
Cessnaflyer
Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Fixtur
Dunning-Kruger Expert
Liquidate your Iraqi Dinar position and buy puts on TSLA. It’s going to $50.
But seriously. I might do that. TSLA at $180 strike. But that would be pure degenerate gambling, so I’d only put in play money.
The rest of my money is tied up in various funds and 401k that I can’t touch without taking a huge tax hit. Recently, we put a sizable chunk of our liquid savings in a high yield savings account. Our plan is to wait it out, since we’re not retiring for 20+ years.
The bigger macro not being much talked about is the global birth rate collapse. Things are going to get interesting in the next 50 years.
But seriously. I might do that. TSLA at $180 strike. But that would be pure degenerate gambling, so I’d only put in play money.
The rest of my money is tied up in various funds and 401k that I can’t touch without taking a huge tax hit. Recently, we put a sizable chunk of our liquid savings in a high yield savings account. Our plan is to wait it out, since we’re not retiring for 20+ years.
The bigger macro not being much talked about is the global birth rate collapse. Things are going to get interesting in the next 50 years.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
Missed the Walz low. I’d sell puts and buy calls on TSLA right now. But only options with a year or more before expiration. TSLA is going to the moon once all this political nonsense is over.
///AMG
Well-Known Member
I could kinda see this being the next "i wish i had invested back then" story of my life.
drunkenbeagle
Gang Member
Diamond hands, bro.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
I sold the one call right after the election that I purchased when TSLA was at 180. Just wish I had more money back then. That was a really amazing gain.
When Amazon warehouses are being staffed by Optimus bots, the goods are being shipped on Tesla semis, we are catching a driverless Tesla uber in more cities than just Austin and it’s all being powered by Tesla power packs buying and selling energy off the grid… Pretty sure the stonk price will be a lot higher. Could be wrong tho bEcAuSe NaZi.
GypsyPilot
Mohawk Town
I don’t see it. Half the US and most of Europe hates Musk with a passion. Tesla sales are absolutely plummeting.
China has BYD which is much cheaper and already has higher global sales.
I won’t short TSLA as it’s a meme, but I still think it’s VASTLY overpriced.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
The key is not thinking about TSLA as a car company but as an artificial intelligence company. Most aren't capable. The Redditor shorts dumping their entire net work into a gamble are going to get rekt.
GypsyPilot
Mohawk Town
Yes, I’ve heard that tired old argument before. “It’s an AI company, it’s an energy storage company, etc.”.
It’s as if people are unaware of GM Super Cruise, Waymo, etc. Not to mention everything BYD is doing (and they are absolutely EVERYWHERE in China). Also, there are • tons of other robotics companies, and so far all of the predictions by Musk have been nothing but empty promises and hot air.
You are clearly very confident in your thesis, so good luck to you. I don’t share your optimism and have looked into the company extensively over the years.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
MSTR/TSLA is currently 1.2 I'm hoping that that ratio improves by quite a lot by the end of the year. That's my only thesis so far. TSLA is only a long term hold in my HSA.
Back on topic:
As a discussion point I believe we are in the winners curse phase and are likely to see a blow off top once we get away from tariff fears. After that we will likely see a very large and very overdue correction.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
Also since hating on TSLA seems like the bees knees around here:
Thoughts?
Thoughts?