Keep staying the course? Investing in volatile times

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woodreau

Well-Known Member
One thing I was hoping was that keeping the stock market up would be one of his priorities. But now with the tariffs, it’s upended the assumptions the world has been running on for the last 80 years.

Since a lot of us and airlines are socking everything away into our 401ks.

The markets are going to be a wild ride.

Historically from 1929 to now the market has always trended upwards…. But I don’t know if the next 10-15 years I’d be able to recover what I’ve already put in the past 20 years.

Since I’m not really smart, I’ve only invested in total stock market index funds…. Betting on the markets to just keep going up over the long term.

But since the agenda is to dismantle the government, if there is no stock market left…. So now what?

More selfish close in…. If our economy tanks, well …. Me thinks people aren’t going to be flying much… it’ll take down the smaller carriers like mine and the ULCCs , I guess the big 4 will still be okay…. And Mesa, well it’s like the cockroach that will still be around after the nuclear weapons exchanges have turn the world into smoking ruins.
 
I agree wholeheartedly. There are many things shaping up in our financial future that's most transparent to the MSM unless perhaps you watch Bloomberg or or financial media outlets. Social media platforms are full of useful information.

Crickets from MSM.

Trump signed that EO legalizing crypto and it went mostly unnoticed except by those in the know. Interesting. Calculated?
 
I bought puts on the S&P at the worst of Covid. Stock market didn't crash, but I also didn't lose everything. Puts expired worthless, but I made 30x more than that on the securities that I didn't sell. Can be cheap insurance if you are worried. And you'll likely be able to write off the loss if you do it in a taxable account. (This isn't financial advice, just sharing my own past choices.)
 
woodreau said:
One thing I was hoping was that keeping the stock market up would be one of his priorities. But now with the tariffs, it’s upended the assumptions the world has been running on for the last 80 years.

Since a lot of us and airlines are socking everything away into our 401ks.

The markets are going to be a wild ride.

Historically from 1929 to now the market has always trended upwards…. But I don’t know if the next 10-15 years I’d be able to recover what I’ve already put in the past 20 years.

Since I’m not really smart, I’ve only invested in total stock market index funds…. Betting on the markets to just keep going up over the long term.

But since the agenda is to dismantle the government, if there is no stock market left…. So now what?

More selfish close in…. If our economy tanks, well …. Me thinks people aren’t going to be flying much… it’ll take down the smaller carriers like mine and the ULCCs , I guess the big 4 will still be okay…. And Mesa, well it’s like the cockroach that will still be around after the nuclear weapons exchanges have turn the world into smoking ruins.
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Stock market is not a function of the government. Even if it tanks it’s just the perfect opportunity to buy a ton at low cost and make your millions on the back side. If you’re truly worried then get out of the stock market and into things like gold for the short term. Lots of options. Better yet get a good financial advisor.


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Inverted25 said:
Stock market is not a function of the government. Even if it tanks it’s just the perfect opportunity to buy a ton at low cost and make your millions on the back side. If you’re truly worried then get out of the stock market and into things like gold for the short term. Lots of options. Better yet get a good financial advisor.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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You're going to see a global shift in how we look at the stock market once global "tokenization" and smart contracts enter our global economy. The derivatives market? Crypto? Shift in wealth? Global purchasing power parity? Coming soon.
 
You're not alone in thinking about how market volatility, tariffs, and economic shifts could impact both long-term investments and the airline industry.

What Can You and I Do?​

🔹 Diversify a bit more – Even if you're a total stock market index believer, adding bonds, international funds, or defensive sectors can reduce risk exposure.
🔹 Prepare for airline volatility – If you work in aviation, have a backup plan or side gig in case the industry contracts.
🔹 Watch for Fed & policy shifts – Interest rate cuts could offset some damage, but if inflation spikes, things could get dicey.

You're not crazy for worrying, but markets always go through cycles. If you’re playing the long game, history suggests patience is your best bet (even if it’s nerve-wracking). 🚀📉 Thoughts on alternative hedges like real estate or commodities?
 
It's amazing how well my 401(k) investments did in the past 4 years, almost 30%. 30! The 4 years prior - less than 5% every year with rebalancing. This year is starting off at 3%

While you might be of the mentality to buy when things suck because of low prices, it took me nearly 2 years to recover and break even from Orange Marmalade's last reign. I'm in the market for the long term, but the destruction of the economy through tariffs, inflation and other somewhat preventable economic scenarios is frustrating.

And yes, I'm diversified with a balance of international stocks, bonds and other wealth building vehicles. So while @Inverted "Stock market is not a function of the government. " it is a function of the choices the government makes. Fight me. Every new tax law, tax break, tariff period of recession, inflation, prosperity and growth, job stimulus, government contract, coalition partnership, etc etc IS a function of the government choices.

So with all of that out of the way, what do y'all think will experience the greatest growth over the next 5 years?
 
If you buy into the Gary Stevenson theory that wealth inequality is going to keep increasing, and at an accelerating pace, then his thoughts are that property prices will keep increasing too, as more and more people get priced out of owning real estate.
 
When in doubt, zoom out.

Nail on the head. Perception over perspective? Focus on investing and not trading?

Chess not checkers? Global purchasing power parity? Cryptocurrency? Prep for bitcoin 2.0
 
I put a little money every month into VOO or something similar. You can't time the market and every time I've really aggressively tried I've made less than I would of on average if I would have just found some good ETFs or at best made the same amount. So that's what I do. If it goes up great, if it goes down, "well great, it's on sale this month" and I keep at it. I have a few stocks in particular companies because I believe in the product, but otherwise, it's ETFs.

That's my entire strategy. When in doubt, zoom out. If I lose it all to the stupid orange guy, well, that'd suck, but I doubt that will happen.
 
ppragman said:
I put a little money every month into VOO or something similar. You can't time the market and every time I've really aggressively tried I've made less than I would of on average if I would have just found some good ETFs or at best made the same amount. So that's what I do. If it goes up great, if it goes down, "well great, it's on sale this month" and I keep at it. I have a few stocks in particular companies because I believe in the product, but otherwise, it's ETFs.

That's my entire strategy. When in doubt, zoom out. If I lose it all to the stupid orange guy, well, that'd suck, but I doubt that will happen.
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Pat, I’m out of the loop. What’s VOO? Virgin Olive Oil? Very Old Ore? Vegetables Over Oregano?
 
Plata said:
Pat, I’m out of the loop. What’s VOO? Virgin Olive Oil? Very Old Ore? Vegetables Over Oregano?
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I’m not Pat, and I don’t stay at holiday inns, but here you go.

www.google.com

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) Price & News - Google Finance

Get the latest Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.
www.google.com www.google.com
 
moxiepilot said:
I don't know I've already lost all my 2025 gains in the past 2 days with this tariff nonsense. That's over 40k for my retirement. It definitely sucks.
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Yeah that’s me too. I’m down $100k the last two days. But it came back a little bit today

the direct contribution came in today from the small paycheck and it all went into index fund like everything else my contributions have gone to for years.

Meanwhile my kid out of the blue goes hey dad is there an index fund for Europe defense contractors?
 
Hey…. It’s a great time to do Roth conversions if you can transfer positions from traditional to Roth… and not sell to cash and convert and repurchase on the other end…
 
the value of your investments have decreased significantly the last few days, but you transfer positions from traditional to Roth - the taxable amount of the conversion is reduced.

since you didn't sell the equity, you retain the basis from the original purchase in your traditional account whenever you purchased it. the value of the equity is what is taxed when you convert. and because of the lower value of the equity, you can convert more shares of the equity than if you did it last week, when the value of the equity was more. now the equity is in your Roth account and whenever the market goes back up - the gains are all tax free after a 5 year holding period after the date of conversion.
 
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