Just curious

[Richman]

I am cautiously optimistic about the new unleaded fuel getting into distribution and getting the STCs out for it. I think that might help some.

Which problems are you referring to?

Yea, I wasn't even talking about the 100LL issue. I think that's actually going to wind up being a nothing burger like the mode-C or ADS-B requirement.

I think there is a nasty confluence of individual factors: Airports being closed for "reasons" ranging from environmental (don't think the unleaded fuel thing will stop them), to commercial interests to plain old "we don't want the hassle just to let old duffers play in their Cessna Cubs".

The insurance market has been really ugly for the past 18-24 months, and that's not just for individual owners. Shops are getting their clocks cleaned right now.

GA is getting pushed out of just about every airport to make room for corporate ops. That's not just owners, but businesses that cater to piston types. Heck, look at SAV....it's pretty much a wholly owned subsidiary of Gulfstream at this point.

Old guys are retiring, shops are closing, and young guys aren't getting into the business. If you have anything more complicated than a 182, you're probably down to maybe 20-25 or so specialty shops that can actually do things right. If you have a complicated piston twin like a Navajo or a 421 that number is about 8 or 10, and those things are basically warbirds at this point. If you have something really esoteric, like a Bellanca or even a Commanche, the number of competent shops is probably about 6, tops.

And those birds are getting really, really tired. Its not 1990, when there were thousands of airplanes produced just 10 years ago. All of those airplanes are now 40 plus. That's 40-50 years of being wrenched on constantly. Stuff gets fragile.

Businesses are finding it hard to get their products certified in the post COVID/post MAX environment. Supply chain dickups have caused a lot of problems from getting cylinders to doing avionics upgrades.

Everyone is getting super, super risk adverse. Between all of the above, costs are going way up.

 

[roundout]

Yea, I wasn't even talking about the 100LL issue. I think that's actually going to wind up being a nothing burger like the mode-C or ADS-B requirement.

I think there is a nasty confluence of individual factors: Airports being closed for "reasons" ranging from environmental (don't think the unleaded fuel thing will stop them), to commercial interests to plain old "we don't want the hassle just to let old duffers play in their Cessna Cubs".

The insurance market has been really ugly for the past 18-24 months, and that's not just for individual owners. Shops are getting their clocks cleaned right now.

GA is getting pushed out of just about every airport to make room for corporate ops. That's not just owners, but businesses that cater to piston types. Heck, look at SAV....it's pretty much a wholly owned subsidiary of Gulfstream at this point.

Old guys are retiring, shops are closing, and young guys aren't getting into the business. If you have anything more complicated than a 182, you're probably down to maybe 20-25 or so specialty shops that can actually do things right. If you have a complicated piston twin like a Navajo or a 421 that number is about 8 or 10, and those things are basically warbirds at this point. If you have something really esoteric, like a Bellanca or even a Commanche, the number of competent shops is probably about 6, tops.

And those birds are getting really, really tired. Its not 1990, when there were thousands of airplanes produced just 10 years ago. All of those airplanes are now 40 plus. That's 40-50 years of being wrenched on constantly. Stuff gets fragile.

Businesses are finding it hard to get their products certified in the post COVID/post MAX environment. Supply chain dickups have caused a lot of problems from getting cylinders to doing avionics upgrades.

Everyone is getting super, super risk adverse. Between all of the above, costs are going way up.

My kid is becoming interested in airplanes; I hate this timeline.

 

[Richman]

My kid is becoming interested in airplanes; I hate this timeline.

Sorry man. You won’t find a bigger GA advocate than me, but from my seat, I see it heading towards a nasty inflection point.

At some point, the push back against commercial interests is going to fail.

AOPA has some mojo, EAA maybe a little less. As long as GAMA stays the course and doesn’t peel off, things might stay status quo.

But It could easily turn into a situation like AMA (Academy of Model Aeronautics) vs the FAA. They got completely steamrollered by events beyond their control

I remain modestly surprised how ARRL holds out against spectrum grab.

 

[fholbert]

Back then everyone thought the problems would just go away, and it'd be 1976 all over again. Everyone thought the next crisis would kill it, mode C requirements, ADS-B, 100LL etc etc.

In 1976 the GA world was coming to an end. We had to install ELT’s.

Replacement batteries (in 1976) were going to be $350! Last annual I bought a battery $50.

 

[rframe]

For those that have or currently own a plane, single engine. What was the biggest surprise that you were not expecting the first year of ownership? Or anytime?

From what I've experienced and from what I've seen other owners deal with, it's not really the big problems that get to you, it's the cumulative cost and time to address small things can add up, especially on older aircraft that maybe were flying but had some "deferred maintenance".

Everyone kind of expects that yeah you can lose a cylinder and it's going to cost you, but that's pretty straight forward as long as you can get the part.
But what about fixing that flaky COM radio, replace that 40 year old ELT with a 406 rather than stick another battery in something that nobody will ever detect if it's actually needed, alternator controller failed and while you're there time to replace a bunch of wiring that looks like it was done in 1900. Time to replace those seatbelts/harnesses that look like you could tear them by hand, that cracked exhaust needs to be fixed, rebuild that leaky nose strut that is flat every time you go out to fly, replace the fuel and brake hoses before they actually fail, worn brakes and tires, finally fixing that worthless shimmy dampener, battery is barely turning the engine over anymore time for a new one, oh the AI gyro is not righting itself anymore and you always wanted this plane to stay IFR current so overhaul or replace, that "500 hour" dry vacuum pump made it to 100 hours - sweet!, etc etc..

Airplane ownership can be fun. My wife and I have a blast with ours and even some of the maintenance is fun with the right attitude. I've owned two certified and one experimental, am vetting a possible partnership right now, and shopping for another plane this winter, so I obviously like it, but you need a good financial reserve and a commitment to just fix things the right way and right away, or it's going to suck the joy from it.

Also, one other thing which might be location specific, but make sure you can get a hangar if you don't want to tie-down. With the resurgence in interest in GA, hangars are like unicorns right now. Around here there's a 4-7 year waitlist and they get a premium for even unheated hangars that wont let you plug in a heater, it's nuts. So, get comfortable with the options available to you before you buy something.