PhilosopherPilot
Well-Known Member
I think it is highly unlikely that the average weather.com user will understand this! (Sorry it is all caps, that is how it is on the wx site.)
Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service
...ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ- CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA- COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA- DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ- INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ- MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD- SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD- WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ- 352 AM EDT TUE APR 27 2004
... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTEWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO EXTEND TO ABOUT 500 MB. THUS INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY WORDING IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY. CAPE VALUES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WILL BE SUCH THAT ONE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME THUNDER AND WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO... LOW FREEZING LEVELS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL. DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY MADE A GREAT CALL BY INCLUDING THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST... AND WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.
WILL MENTION SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. UPSLOPE PARAMETERS DO NOT APPEAR AS CONDUCIVE AS THEY LOOKED AROUND THIS TIME LAST NIGHT... SO HAVE BACKED DOWN A BIT ON MENTION OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL MAINLY BE SNOW AS FREEZING LEVEL LOWERS TO AROUND 1000 FEET.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH RESPECT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY AND 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING +10C TO +12C. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 70S. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S.
COLD FRONT ACROSS CANADA WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ITS ABILITY TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME QUESTIONS EXIST ON ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS MODELS SEEM TO GENERATE SPURIOUS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS IS A REALITY OR NOT. ALSO... TREND NOW INDICATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THIS IS THE CASE... THEN UPPER FLOW BACKS OVER THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY AND COLD FRONT NEVER PUSHES INTO THE REGION. ALSO... PRECIPITATION IS THEN FORCED BACK WESTWARD AND IS CLOSELY TIED TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS... WHICH REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS... LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EXAMINE THE POSSIBILITY OF REMOVING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEEKEND PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THIS SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT PLAY OUT. IF THIS WERE THE CASE... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
G
Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service
...ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ- CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA- COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA- DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ- INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ- MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD- SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD- WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ- 352 AM EDT TUE APR 27 2004
... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTEWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO EXTEND TO ABOUT 500 MB. THUS INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY WORDING IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY. CAPE VALUES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WILL BE SUCH THAT ONE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME THUNDER AND WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO... LOW FREEZING LEVELS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL. DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY MADE A GREAT CALL BY INCLUDING THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST... AND WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.
WILL MENTION SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. UPSLOPE PARAMETERS DO NOT APPEAR AS CONDUCIVE AS THEY LOOKED AROUND THIS TIME LAST NIGHT... SO HAVE BACKED DOWN A BIT ON MENTION OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL MAINLY BE SNOW AS FREEZING LEVEL LOWERS TO AROUND 1000 FEET.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH RESPECT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY AND 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING +10C TO +12C. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 70S. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S.
COLD FRONT ACROSS CANADA WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ITS ABILITY TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME QUESTIONS EXIST ON ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS MODELS SEEM TO GENERATE SPURIOUS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS IS A REALITY OR NOT. ALSO... TREND NOW INDICATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THIS IS THE CASE... THEN UPPER FLOW BACKS OVER THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY AND COLD FRONT NEVER PUSHES INTO THE REGION. ALSO... PRECIPITATION IS THEN FORCED BACK WESTWARD AND IS CLOSELY TIED TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS... WHICH REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS... LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EXAMINE THE POSSIBILITY OF REMOVING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEEKEND PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THIS SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT PLAY OUT. IF THIS WERE THE CASE... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
G
