how long will fossil fuel last?

FutureAviator

FutureAviator

Well-Known Member
How long will fossil fuel last? Thats what planes use and once fossil fuel has run out, how are we going to transport people over ther air then there wont be no jobs for pilots
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i got this question because my uncle told me that trying to become a pilot is going to be a risk b/c fossil fuel is running out and there won't be no jobs for pilots and he said that piloting is a risky job. You can lose your job very quickly
 
If fossil fuel runs out, we're all absolutely screwed, industry-wide.

Electical shortages, no mail service, no transportation, no heating in some parts of the country, no petroleum-based products, no boats, no airplanes, only locally grown produce at your grocery store, whatever could be brought in via horseback (screwed in AZ!), zip, zero, nada!

Plus, considering most of America drives to work, productivity in those industries that are still managing to stay aloat will go down if it survives at all.

Your uncle decrying aviation because of potential fossil fuel shortages is almost akin to someone saying "Don't become a missileer in the USAF because if there's ever a nuclear war, you're sitting on a primary target!" Heck, launch the missile, go outside and watch the show!
 
IMPO, i think the fossil fuel thing is more of a political tactic than anything else. If we were really going to be running out of fossil fuels in the next 5-10 years or so, then i'd think we'd be working on it much more stringently to find an alternative...because if we don't have planes to fly and cars to drive, and if we have to go back to horse & buggy then everyone will have a snizzle fit and there would probably be major uproar against the government...not something they want...

so, i wouldn't worry about that to much.

There are risks with becoming a pilot...just as there are risks with becoming anything you want to be. An engineer has to sign off that the building they just designed won't fall and kill people. doctor has to sign off that he's trying to cure you, not kill you... each field out there has it's risks, it's all in how you handle those risks. if you really want to be a pilot, then you'll look beyond the risks and do what you have to do to minimize the risks altogether -> that just means lots and lots of training till your comfortable with what your doing and with what risks your taking.

sounds like someone's trying to deter you because *they* don't feel safe in letting you take those risks.. and that's something you need to talk about and convey to/with them.

just keep in mind that everything you do.. getting up in the morning, stepping in the shower, driving the car, walking into the grocery store etc etc is a risk, you just don't really think about it that way, that often!

hope this helps some (and makes sense)!
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Most credible estimates tend to place the exhaustion of fossils fuels at about 40-70 years out (well after I turn 60). This figure is constantly changing due to the discovery of new resources and due to changes in our understanding of known resources. In 1960, for example, it was thought we would run out in the 1990's. Didn't happen.

Looking at the historical, ever-changing guesstimates on the exhaustion of fossil fuels, I think it's pretty safe to assume that we will not run out of fossil fuels for at least another 70-100 years. Considering that the internal combustion engine itself is only a little more than 100 years told, I'm pretty confident that we will have developed reliable, mature alternative energy sources before we're back in horse-drawn buggies.

In fact, we have many of the necessary technologies now. The only reason they are not much used is because such technologies are more expensive than fossil fuels. When we get near running out of fossil fuels, that equation will most certainly change. If we completely run out of oil, we can all buy solar cars. And we won't bitch about them being slow and useless on a cloudy day, because there might not be any other option.
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So fear not, young Padawan. While fuel costs will continue to be a problem, you won't soon have to use a paddle-plane to get your flying fix.

MF
 
Well, we'll start to have problems long before we literally run out. When all the cheap oil is gone, and we're exploring for the harder to reach stuff (hence more expensive) the economy will start to have problems. In other words, when oil production peaks, not when it is exhausted. When will this happen? No one knows fore sure, some have it as 2008, others (USGS) have it as 2030.

If and when that happens, as Doug said, we'll have major problems everywhere and flying won't really be the highest priority.
 
I saw something in the Wall Street Journal that had experts talking about when the peak in oil production would occur. Some said it would be ten years down the road, others said it would be 30.

Now, that's the peak. After that, there will be a long period of time where the supply starts to dwindle, little by little. And hopefully, we will get our heads out of our butts by then and put together alternative fuel sources, hopefully renewable ones.

If we run out of oil before we get that taken care of, an inability to fly would be the last thing we have to worry about, because we'd be so screwed!
 
Many issues about oil are easily confused, to the delight of the politicians and similar ilk.

1. "Known reserves" of oil refer only to what is known to be available using CURRENT technology and CURRENT prices. Amazingly, as the price for crude goes up, the ability to extract it goes up too and more oil fields are found. Some mystery, eh?

2. Peak production. Based on the amount that is consumed and varies with economic development. As places like China get more efficient manufacturing and vehicles, the demand will drop and so less output is needed, despite having more cars, etc.

3. The ability to extract a given amount of fuel from a barrel of oil is also technology dependent, and the higher the price the less is wasted as a byproduct of the "cracking" process.

Bottom line: There have been dire warnings about running out of oil for the last century and yet we always seem to have more. It is not even that highly priced, relatively, right now. Worry about something else.
 
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Worry about something else.

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Yeah, because there will be plenty of time to worry about that when it's too late to plan for it....

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As the price goes up, the market will naturally drive more money towards alternatives. The entire issue is self-correcting and there is plenty of lead time. Alternatives are available now, they're just more expensive than the oil. When the price of oil gets high enough, that will change and as more capital flows to non-oil fuels/energy, those will become cheaper, and drive down demand for oil.

Seriously, it is not something to sweat about, don't let a certain political party convince you otherwise! Do some research on the history of oil production and energy production and take a good course is economics.
 
We are not going to run out of fossil fuel anytime soon, last report said that we have enough
to last hundreds of years. Have you ever seen Jurassic Park? That is an awfully big dinosaur
and there were plenty of those bad boys running around, back in the day.
 
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Alternatives are available now, they're just more expensive than the oil.

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It's already starting to get there. Instead of plastic containers made out of oil, they're starting to use ones made out of corn. There's a slight price premium but it's manageable, and if oil stays at $50 a barrel, you'll see other technologies come online.
 
A regular diesel motor will run on vegetable oil. I would like to see hydrogen cars be the new thing. Not fuel cell, but the engines that actually burn hydrogen like gasoline. I still want my V-8 sound. The only problem is that the hydrogen burns so hot it burns through the piston. I think Ford is the only one thats working an burning hydrogen instead of like the others where a fuel cell is use to make electricity which then turns an electric motor.

We could all run on methane like the top fuel dragsters. YES
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Tom
 
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You can lose your job very quickly

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You can lose your job quickly in aviation without the help of fossil fuels running out.
 
We would just use gliders!

PS Pilot - that picture is awesome - very impressive of the SAA guys to land a 747 (41.33 ft tire width) on a 50 foot runway! Good show boys!
 
Food for thought: Last year, US oil exploration companies spent 8 billion looking for new reserves. The reserves they found are worth an estimated 5 billion.
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And we thought AVGAS was already overpriced . . .
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We could all run on methane like the top fuel dragsters. YES
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And then we'd all be eating beans so that we could generate more methane!
 
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We could all run on methane like the top fuel dragsters. YES
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And then we'd all be eating beans so that we could generate more methane!

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We could just put a cow in the trunk. That way I could legitimately say "it wasn't me".
 
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