How does this cycle compare to others?

Hell, a brotha couldn't even be an airline pilot back in 1955! True story.
 
After 9/11, none of my instructors could get a regional to look twice at them. Pretty much all the instructors I had in Orlando wound up flying 135 before they went elsewhere. Either Flight Express or Airnet was hiring guys before the regionals were.
 
I understand that aviation comes in cycles...It will have its up, and it will have its downs...My question is directed towards doug, and airtrain, deups and the likes who have been in this industry for sometime...

How is this economic downturn effecting aviation compared to previous downward cycles, ie-9/11? Can you really compare, or are things completely different? Better? Worse?

Thanks

Curious Mike-


The economic downturns affect the airline industry, but another component is structural changes or outside influences that affect it. Things like the PATCO strike, Deregulation, Advent of RJs, and Age 65 retirement are non-economic influences on airlines and careers.

One can go back to the lates 60s to see the end of one hiring boom. Nothing much happened until the late 70s when UAL, Piedmont, PSA, and a few others started hiring again. The PATCO strike put a stop to that then deregulation started kicking in during the mid 80s. That's when American started hiring like gangbusters along with United, USAir, Piedmont, NWA, and a few others. The economy hit a rough patch in the early 90s and that led to some significant furloughs at USAir ( 91-98 ), NWA, American ( 93-96 ), and a significant slow down in hiring until the late 90s. The post 9-11 furloughs were worse. Just look at American, they've still got guys out from then.

This economic downturn in combination with the change to age 65 is making for some long furloughs and/or lack of hiring at many places. The small RJs day in the sun is over so that is affecting the Regional carriers as well. In three to four years time the retirement numbers will get back to what they should have been and the economy should be on an up cycle so that should start a significant boom in hiring numers.


Typhoonpilot
 
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