How do determine if there is a hiring boom?

N

nbv4

Well-Known Member
When I first finished my training back in 2006, there was a hiring boom. People used to joke that anyone with a pilot licence and a pulse could get hiring at the regional airlines. Sometime in 2008/2009 the gravy train ended. I was laid off my job as Metroliner FO in late 2008, and couldn't find a job for the life of me. I send out hundreds of resumes but there was so many other people in my situation with more hours than me and there was not enough jobs to go around. Eventually I gave up and began pursuing employment in my "fallback" which is software engineering. I've been working as a full time software developer for the past 8 years or so. I've been considering getting back into flying the past 8 years, but it's only worth doing in there is another "hiring boom".

My questions is, how to detect when there is a hiring boom going on? What are the indicators?
 
nbv4 said:
When I first finished my training back in 2006, there was a hiring boom. People used to joke that anyone with a pilot licence and a pulse could get hiring at the regional airlines. Sometime in 2008/2009 the gravy train ended. I was laid off my job as Metroliner FO in late 2008, and couldn't find a job for the life of me. I send out hundreds of resumes but there was so many other people in my situation with more hours than me and there was not enough jobs to go around. Eventually I gave up and began pursuing employment in my "fallback" which is software engineering. I've been working as a full time software developer for the past 8 years or so. I've been considering getting back into flying the past 8 years, but it's only worth doing in there is another "hiring boom".

My questions is, how to detect when there is a hiring boom going on? What are the indicators?
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The indicator is when you look back on your career and had good progression, and didn't get furloughed. There's no true way of predicting this crazy industry. Supposedly, we're in a hiring boom right now...I've been trying to get on with a 91 operator in my area for years. They had 125 applicants for 2 positions recently...I never even got an interview, and I have some serious connections to the company.

YMMV.
 
My take is to look back a few years. If you started flying for a regional just 3-4 years ago you made somewhere around $22-25 per hour. Now if you start you can make $60k as a first year. That's a pretty insane pay spike in my opinion and it's not due to the kindness of their hearts. Another indicator would be people getting hired with much less experience at LCC's than just a few years ago. The squeeze starts at the bottom and works its way up.
That's also why ( in my opinion ) when a low time CFI says they want the ATP rule to be changed so they can get hired I want to kick them in the nads.
 
You have enough evidence. You were laid off late 2008, by then several airlines had already shut doors. Aloha, Skybus, ATA, Champion, EOS, Maxjet. No one could describe that as good days or hiring boom. For both regionals and majors, there was a good hiring spree 2005-2007 and about 2014-present. 2012-2013 was very decent for LCCs.
 
Box hauler said:
My take is to look back a few years. If you started flying for a regional just 3-4 years ago you made somewhere around $22-25 per hour. Now if you start you can make $60k as a first year. That's a pretty insane pay spike in my opinion and it's not due to the kindness of their hearts. Another indicator would be people getting hired with much less experience at LCC's than just a few years ago. The squeeze starts at the bottom and works its way up.
That's also why ( in my opinion ) when a low time CFI says they want the ATP rule to be changed so they can get hired I want to kick them in the nads.
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Or freshly-credentialed PPL holders, for that matter.

nbv4 said:
but it's only worth doing in there is another "hiring boom".
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Well, if I had come into this with that mentality, I'd be a new hire making $36.50 in the right seat right now, versus supervising the guy making the $36.50 at a little over half that. I was "poor" for about a year and a half, and then I wasn't anymore. Wasn't rolling in the dough, but I did alright.

So...

If you can get in, you get in. Nothing, including or perhaps especially your hiring by a major airline, is guaranteed. If you think you're going to come into the bottom tier for a year, "get your time" and then move along, well. Possible, albeit unlikely.

Cherokee_Cruiser said:
You have enough evidence. You were laid off late 2008, by then several airlines had already shut doors. Aloha, Skybus, ATA, Champion, EOS, Maxjet. No one could describe that as good days or hiring boom. For both regionals and majors, there was a good hiring spree 2005-2007 and about 2014-present. 2012-2013 was very decent for LCCs.
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Capacity discipline: it's a thing.
 
Capacity discipline wasn't why a lot of those airlines went out. It was a combination of factors all at once: some airlines were already financially hurting, but the oil spike up to $150/barel, credit crunch, lack of access to financial instruments for the airlines.

Once the 4 mega mergers went through, the airlines have capacity discipline. Hopefully going forward, the era of multiple airlines failing in one year are gone.
 
nbv4 said:
When I first finished my training back in 2006, there was a hiring boom. People used to joke that anyone with a pilot licence and a pulse could get hiring at the regional airlines. Sometime in 2008/2009 the gravy train ended. I was laid off my job as Metroliner FO in late 2008, and couldn't find a job for the life of me. I send out hundreds of resumes but there was so many other people in my situation with more hours than me and there was not enough jobs to go around. Eventually I gave up and began pursuing employment in my "fallback" which is software engineering. I've been working as a full time software developer for the past 8 years or so. I've been considering getting back into flying the past 8 years, but it's only worth doing in there is another "hiring boom".

My questions is, how to detect when there is a hiring boom going on? What are the indicators?
Click to expand...

I'd say you missed the beginning of the wave by almost two years, but it's not too late. Depending on your qualifications, you should be able to get on with a regional of your choice. As far as the long term future, who knows???

If you really want to fly for a living and are willing to take a risk, get your stuff in. Yesterday.

"Safe return not guaranteed".
 
I'd say yes, about 4 regionals pay $60k first year and I was hired with fairly low time and no TPIC at an LCC with an 8 month upgrade on the airbus.
 
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