Since no one asked me, I see all of this as a " Growth " problems and not necessarily going out of business problems. So, on the whole, this isn't, necessarily, as bad as, parking airplanes and shrinking routes as we furlough and go out of business. I'd bet a few beers that it went something like, " These are the projected number for next summer, can you guys do that?" "Sure we can do that, looks good to us". There were a lot of fancy spreadsheets and numbers that looked really good in the meeting, then the reality of the operation, the new contract, and the new toy and rolled over in bed...and suddenly in the morning light, you realized you made a very very big mistake. Nothing recoverable, you used protection, gave it cash for a cab, and said, "ill never do that again". Pretty sure that is how this whole summer came to be. One big drunken spreasheet haze. We've all been there and most don't have VD or offspring from it. If anyone remembers, this happened before, two years ago, just after the arrival of this management team, same reset, and life goes on. They aren't operations folks and some don't have a good grasp of reality, like that stalker ex girlfriend that keeps watching me from the bushes...but then again, I do have an audience, might as well put on a little show.
Things will have to get much, much worse before we see the end of the company. The good news is, as goes QX so goes AS. Lots of people go to SEA and PDX and LAX but many more people go to smaller places that only QX flies. Kill QX and there isn't anyone right now that has the capacity to supplement that feed. It would take a while to get pilots retrained on a new certificate, unless it was bought, by someone with deep pockets. AS financials are pretty solid and have deep reserves to keep the business afloat. I don't think you'd want to intentionally mess with labor in this market, but what do I know. Then again, I'm an optomist...and like earning money.
However, this might be some tactict to get the FAA to resend the 1500 hr rule and all that extra regulation around piots. As crazy as it sounds, that is possible. I remember something about the government can't regulate a business so much that it can't make a profit. This would be a messed up way to do that. However, AAG has a history of protesting regulation to promote its business venture. So, let the business fail, Chapter 11, reorganize the company, split off ground and customer services into McGee and all the toys go under AS proper. Gets them out of all their current labor contracts, consolidates and emerges stronger than before. Buys Jet Blue for East Coast basing and JFK slots. Crazy but not that crazy. Like that woman out side my window.