Historical Comparason...

[Richman]

Hey guys,

I was an active CFI in the late 80s to early 90s. Also active in GA.

I'd be interested in getting a thread going among people who were also CFI-ing during that time period up to and after 9/11. Anyone involved in GA during that time is welcome to jump in.

I'm trying to quantify the drop-off in student starts in the 2004-2006 range, and what seems to be subsequent collapse in light GA operations after about 2010.

Those of us involved with GA for along time probably have heard the doom and gloom since we've been involved (I started in '87), but the time period after 2011 seems particularly abrupt, and the recent relaxation of 100LL prices hasn't seemed to have stimulated anything.

I've got my own memories of what happened when, but I'm interested to see if anyone else saw the same things.

Discuss....

Richman

 

[Roger Roger]

Probably not real helpful, but when I started flying in 02 my home airport was a large Class E bustling with a large university flight program and a healthy owner GA population, plus Mesaba Saabs (long live the bowling shoe). Went back in I think 2013 to do my ATP and the place was a ghost town other than an army guard helo base. Has a tower now too. Really sad as airport days there were huge in getting me into aviation. Can't link it too much to economics either as generally the area seems to be growing and healthy.

 

[Richman]

Hi Roger,

Yea...I can't seem to pin it down as to what happened and why. Something happened in the 2000's that really threw a towel on GA, and it really hit a low around 2010-11, and it's been bumping along the bottom ever since. I was hanging around some type forums around that time, and you could literally see the drop off in message postings over a 5 month period.

One of the ancillary effects was on the pilot pipeline...we all know it collapsed around 2005, leading to some historically low time hires until the advent of the ATP rule. What I'm trying to figure out is if it's a chicken or the egg kind of deal...did the pipeline collapse because GA had collapsed, or vice versa. But that's only one part of it...

They've been crying about product liability forever, but lots of toys have the same problem. One wonders if they just use it as an excuse to jack the costs up. "We charge it because we can" like some other industries. Certainly there is a part of it, but I've seen some overly OCD accounting used at some places that makes EVERYTHING overly expensive.

Insurance changes? I know this was a big deal after 9/11, but all my insurance buddies tell me it's abated.

More aggressive local issues (airport, real estate, etc)?

Demographics? Maybe we just hit that inflection point where people in GA just aren't able to do it anymore in large numbers.

Is it the TFR thing? Is it that much of a PITA to call LM FSS and check? For me...yes, but I do because I make a living with my tickets. But there is a pretty large psychological "overhang" knowing that you ought to check even for a local flight even though the ASOS is CAVU or you checked DUATs.

People POed? When I was looking at airplanes, some people who had bought in thinking airplanes would always appreciate were VERY POed at the haircut they took in 2008-09. Some wouldn't even sell...they just pushed their airplanes into the back of the hangar and padlocked the door. There are a LOT of otherwise decent airplanes out there with flat tires and out of annual for 4-5 years.

What's the CFI scene like these days?

No one really wants to talk about it. I've tried similar threads on some type boards and even the AOPA forum and no one cares even though everyone bitches about the condition of the industry.

Richman