Hiring Boom?

Keep in mind, much like Kit Darby, FltOps makes money by providing career fairs and interview prep when airlines are hiring. So it is truly in their best interest to predict a hiring boom.

I do think there will be an increase in hiring in the future (2 year horizon maybe?) but who knows at what level it will really be. Yes, there are a lot of retirements coming up, but if consolidation continues and majors start rolling back the scope issues (like UniCAL wants to) there won't be as big as a jump as a lot of people are predicting.
 
I agree with Ethan. FltOps is filling the gap left by Kit Darby's old operation. Back in the day, Darby's company would be running a job fair in ATL about every 90 days. Then they stopped and closed up shop. FltOps is just filling in where they can at roughly $100 a pop with a "subscription fee" every month if you don't opt out. Until guys are leaving in droves for multiple airlines, I'm not willing to jump for joy yet. If FltOps says "Well, it's gonna be a moderate recovery with only a few guys making it to the next level for the next couple of years" not very many people will attend their job fairs. The one November features Delta (not currently interviewing) and AirTran (bought by SWA and likely not hiring again). But guys will pay the $$$ and line up out the building to talk to them. Some days I don't think but KNOW I got in the wrong side of the aviation business.....
 
"Every employee that you know at your target company with any influence on the pilot screening decision makers should be well aware how badly you want the job."

Qoutes like that scare me. I may be flamed for this, but I hate the mentality in this industry that folks will do anything for a pilot job. And many will do just about anything. Note the QOL plummet in the airlines, and of course flight instructing is usually borderline use and abuse. Understand I mean a difference between working hard and being desperate (ala Shiny Jet Syndrome). In my experience, the instructors I worked with who were the most desperate (versus hard working/diligent) for that airline job / corporate gig, were the worst instructors.
Rant over.



 
kellwolf said:
I agree with Ethan. FltOps is filling the gap left by Kit Darby's old operation.
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Correcto.

I've spoken to almost every HR person in the industry over the past year and most* "growth" of sorts is going to be in response to some of the rest rule changes.

There'll be some job growth, but an outright "boom" is language that none of the companies alluded to at all.

There are signs of a recovery in the market and 2011 will be better than 2010, but there is:

  • No impending shortage
  • Very little possibility of a return to the "200 hours? NOOOOOO problem! Your jet's right here!" days

    2011, sans any exploding boxes of toners, will be better than 2010. How much better?

    Kit Darby and FlightOps don't know but they need to move product (career fairs, website registrations, books and value-added services) so it behooves them to be a little overly excitable about any upward trends because then being part of their revenue stream makes sense to the consumer.

    I have the same contacts they have (maybe more?) and I still remain guarded about any prediction beyond a modest recovery in 2011.

    Modest recovery coming? In some circles, yes.

    Will there be fat new contracts and throngs of new hires dancing in the streets to Justin Beiber's latest hit? "Baby, baby, baby no baby, baby baby baby noooooooooooooo!" :)
 
block30 said:
"Every employee that you know at your target company with any influence on the pilot screening decision makers should be well aware how badly you want the job."

Qoutes like that scare me. I may be flamed for this, but I hate the mentality in this industry that folks will do anything for a pilot job. And many will do just about anything. Note the QOL plummet in the airlines, and of course flight instructing is usually borderline use and abuse. Understand I mean a difference between working hard and being desperate (ala Shiny Jet Syndrome). In my experience, the instructors I worked with who were the most desperate (versus hard working/diligent) for that airline job / corporate gig, were the worst instructors.
Rant over.



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The interviews I've felt went really well happened when I already had a job and didn't actually need the one I was interviewing for. When I interviewed at my current gig, I went in there perfectly relaxed and not sweating about getting the job. Sure, I wanted the job, but if I didn't get the offer, oh well, better luck next time. Had no problems getting the offer, and trust me, I did not present myself as desperate or "badly wanting the job." I just came in and had a chat with the bosses. Lots of places want to know that you're a confident, self-sufficient individual, not one who's going to wash the chief pilot's car just to get a shot at a front seat.

To quote Swingers: "Now the trick is that we gotta look like we don't need this stuff and they give us the stuff for free." :)
 
dasleben said:
The interviews I've felt went really well happened when I already had a job and didn't actually need the one I was interviewing for. When I interviewed at my current gig, I went in there perfectly relaxed and not sweating about getting the job. Sure, I wanted the job, but if I didn't get the offer, oh well, better luck next time. Had no problems getting the offer, and trust me, I did not present myself as desperate or "badly wanting the job." I just came in and had a chat with the bosses. Lots of places want to know that you're a confident, self-sufficient individual, not one who's going to wash the chief pilot's car just to get a shot at a front seat.

To quote Swingers: "Now the trick is that we gotta look like we don't need this stuff and they give us the stuff for free." :)
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hmmm,
I find myself in agreement. This goes for business word as well. Express interest, show them how you would be an asset and let them win you. Hard to do, if you are furloughed or otherwise unemployed.
 
Doug Taylor said:
Correcto.

I've spoken to almost every HR person in the industry over the past year and any "growth" of sorts is going to be in response to some of the rest rule changes.

There'll be some job growth, but an outright "boom" is language that none of the companies alluded to at all.

There are signs of a recovery in the market and 2011 will be better than 2010, but there is:

  • No impending shortage
  • Very little possibility of a return to the "200 hours? NOOOOOO problem! Your jet's right here!" days

    2011, sans any exploding boxes of toners, will be better than 2010. How much better?

    Kit Darby and FlightOps don't know but they need to move product (career fairs, website registrations, books and value-added services) so it behooves them to be a little overly excitable about any upward trends because then being part of their revenue stream makes sense to the consumer.

    I have the same contacts they have (maybe more?) and I still remain guarded about any prediction beyond a modest recovery in 2011.

    Modest recovery coming? In some circles, yes.

    Will there be fat new contracts and throngs of new hires dancing in the streets to Justin Beiber's latest hit? "Baby, baby, baby no baby, baby baby baby noooooooooooooo!" :)
Click to expand...


  • Thats why you rock dude!
 
dasleben said:
To quote Swingers: "Now the trick is that we gotta look like we don't need this stuff and they give us the stuff for free." :)
Click to expand...

Douglas Adams said:
... a towel has immense psychological value. For some reason, if a strag (strag: nonhitchhiker) discovers that a hitchhiker has his towel with him, he will automatically assume that he is also in possession of a toothbrush, washcloth, soap, tin of biscuits, flask, compass, map, ball of string, gnat spray, wet-weather gear, space suit etc., etc. Furthermore, the strag will then happily lend the hitchhiker any of these or a dozen other items that the hitchhiker might accidentally have "lost". What the strag will think is that any man who can hitch the length and breadth of the galaxy, rough it, slum it, struggle against terrible odds, win through, and still knows where his towel is, is clearly a man to be reckoned with.
Click to expand...
 
msmspilot said:
... a towel has immense psychological value. For some reason, if a strag (strag: nonhitchhiker) discovers that a hitchhiker has his towel with him, he will automatically assume that he is also in possession of a toothbrush, washcloth, soap, tin of biscuits, flask, compass, map, ball of string, gnat spray, wet-weather gear, space suit etc., etc. Furthermore, the strag will then happily lend the hitchhiker any of these or a dozen other items that the hitchhiker might accidentally have "lost". What the strag will think is that any man who can hitch the length and breadth of the galaxy, rough it, slum it, struggle against terrible odds, win through, and still knows where his towel is, is clearly a man to be reckoned with.
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Great book!
 
So while the chance of a pilot shortage over the next few years is very slim, what about 20 years or so down the road? I don't really have any data to back this up, but it seems like very few Americans are learning to fly anymore (at least for a career). I spent several months this year looking for a job as an instructor and most schools either only had a handful of students who didn't fly much or they were almost entirely foreign. Even the school where I currently instruct is entirely Chinese and European. And these guys go back overseas after they are finished with their training.
 
20 years? Probably three or four more boom/bust cycles, lagging the economics swings and a few terrorist events... My guess is... Well, I don't know!
 
For all we know, 20 years from now we'll have transporter beams and all pilots will be out of a job.

I'd worry more about a "distant" 5 year time frame.
 
Problem is the word "shortage" has two different meanings.

(1) To would be pilots: Take your pick of jobs.... and pay.... not enough pilots to fill the slots at any rate of pay.

(2) To airline management: Not enough applicants willing to accept the job at the lowest rate of pay found in the industry.

A "shortage" by definition #1 will not happen. A "shortage" by definition #2 will probably happen.... but then the question is: Do you really want to live in a mobile home on food stamps while your child gets free lunches at school? Do you really think it is fun to pay ZERO federal income tax and get earned income credit because you are so far below the poverty line even the government thinks your salary is pathetic?

If you think it's cool, I will tell you it is not.
 
seaav8tor said:
A "shortage" by definition #1 will not happen. A "shortage" by definition #2 will probably happen.... but then the question is: Do you really want to live in a mobile home on food stamps while your child gets free lunches at school? Do you really think it is fun to pay ZERO federal income tax and get earned income credit because you are so far below the poverty line even the government thinks your salary is pathetic?

If you think it's cool, I will tell you it is not.
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But hey, at least you get to fly big shiny jets! I'd do it for free! :pirate:
 
I think over the next 2-4 years we'll see some modest hiring unless we see a slump in the economy, terrorist attack, or some sort of epidemic.
 
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