Hook Dupin says:
My basic thought wave is that a Chapter 11 maneuver where the GL creditor become the new owners is the outcome. From the creditor's position, that's far better than a Chapter 13 outcome where assets get liquidated in a fire-sale. In the financers-become-owners scenario, restrictions on sales of assets then disappear.
That's right, providing they can find a venture capital firm who wants to own a broken airline. True, some visionary may come along with enough of a silver tongue (along with smoke & mirrors!) and a prospectus printing agreement with Office Max, to convince some extremely optimistic banker. The last two years makes it likely that it won't be present management, and (IMHO) the realities of bankruptcy law also make it unlikely that it will be the present creditors. All this is subject to the approval of the bankruptcy judge, and these folks aren't push-overs. Al it takes is some minor creditor to come out of the woodwork and say :"Not fair to me, judge!" to hold things up. Think of the American case and the two small investors from California.
The big question is: What are the assets worth if you sold them? vs Can present management stem the tide of burning cash and present a viable plan to turn the ship around?
In fact, I believe the debt structure and asset sales restrictions are now built-in to force GL into Chapter 11.
I think you're right, Hook, unless the creditors say "No hope!" and push it straight to Chapter 7.
One (Gardener Brothers dba GB Merchant Partners) spends a lot of their resources in retail, has no other airline exposure I could find. The other, Crystal Capital, does a lot of retail, but also bailed out Silver Airways. Silver appears to be getting smaller and concentrating regionally, and dumping their B-1900Ds to concentrate on their Saab 340 business. Their planning has not been spectacular in entering / leaving markets. My understanding is that operationally, they make GLA look competent.
Doug Voss and Chuck Howell have a third of a month left to pull a banking rabbit out of their hats. Their frequent flyer miles may be one of GLA;s few remaining un-pledged assets!
