Graph of pilot costs, growth of regionals

[SoCalAprch]

Re: Regional Data

A sad truth of the things to come ahead. It's like I was saying a while back- Regional pilots may well be where they are for the rest of their careers.

The "Up and Out" philosophy has been disproved. Congrats to those few who make it, but the rest of us are hosed. Hopefully the continued trend won't reverse the fortunes of those who did make it up.

While I agree whole heartedly that we need to do everything in our power to make things at the regional level better I really feel that pilots are short sighted. Its all doom and gloom because the economy and age 65 rule have brought senioirty lists to a standstill. Hate to break it to all the pessimists but the Majors will start hiring again and there will be movement. The Age 65 rule will come creeping up in another few years and the economy will be on the rebound right as this is happening. Remember just 1.5 years ago some were hiring close to 1000 pilots a year. Things will change and we will be back on the argument of how much Total Time is enough. If someone could find the average age of American Airlines and Airways pilots I wouldn't be surprised if it was close to 50 or even higher. That = many retirements in the next decade or so. Also is funny to me how none of us cared about any of this stuff until the economy and age 65 rule took effect and all the music stopped. Right now I just hope that we can make things better for the next guys that come after us and that the majors hold onto their scope.

 

[surreal1221]

Re: Regional Data

A couple words.

The Damage is Done.

 

[mwflyer]

Re: Regional Data

While I agree whole heartedly that we need to do everything in our power to make things at the regional level better I really feel that pilots are short sighted. Its all doom and gloom because the economy and age 65 rule have brought senioirty lists to a standstill. Hate to break it to all the pessimists but the Majors will start hiring again and there will be movement. The Age 65 rule will come creeping up in another few years and the economy will be on the rebound right as this is happening. Remember just 1.5 years ago some were hiring close to 1000 pilots a year. Things will change and we will be back on the argument of how much Total Time is enough. If someone could find the average age of American Airlines and Airways pilots I wouldn't be surprised if it was close to 50 or even higher. That = many retirements in the next decade or so. Also is funny to me how none of us cared about any of this stuff until the economy and age 65 rule took effect and all the music stopped. Right now I just hope that we can make things better for the next guys that come after us and that the majors hold onto their scope.

I agree. I love the way people on here act like the majors have hired their last pilot. You also make a good point about nobody caring until the music stopped. Which leads me to believe that once it starts again, people will stop caring.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

If someone could find the average age of American Airlines and Airways pilots I wouldn't be surprised if it was close to 50 or even higher.

Not sure about AMR, but the average age of an Airways pilot is mid-high 50s.

 

[Firebird2XC]

Re: Regional Data

While I agree whole heartedly that we need to do everything in our power to make things at the regional level better I really feel that pilots are short sighted. Its all doom and gloom because the economy and age 65 rule have brought senioirty lists to a standstill. Hate to break it to all the pessimists but the Majors will start hiring again and there will be movement. The Age 65 rule will come creeping up in another few years and the economy will be on the rebound right as this is happening. Remember just 1.5 years ago some were hiring close to 1000 pilots a year. Things will change and we will be back on the argument of how much Total Time is enough. If someone could find the average age of American Airlines and Airways pilots I wouldn't be surprised if it was close to 50 or even higher. That = many retirements in the next decade or so. Also is funny to me how none of us cared about any of this stuff until the economy and age 65 rule took effect and all the music stopped. Right now I just hope that we can make things better for the next guys that come after us and that the majors hold onto their scope.

I cared. Others have spoken up that care as well.

I'm sure the lacking standards of our industry are of vital concern to those who survived the victims of Colgan 3407.

If our peers fail to note that our own ambition have left us open to career exploitation and the degradation of the safety standards we are charged to protect, that's on our heads as well.

We all need to take the time to make it clear while our collective vision is focused to set standards that prevent things from becoming this skewed again.

Yes, we are damaged. No, it is not permanent.

Things will never be 'how the were'. That doesn't excuse us from making sure how things are done now are done as they should be.

 

[SoCalAprch]

Re: Regional Data

I cared. Others have spoken up that care as well.

I'm sure the lacking standards of our industry are of vital concern to those who survived the victims of Colgan 3407.

If our peers fail to note that our own ambition have left us open to career exploitation and the degradation of the safety standards we are charged to protect, that's on our heads as well.

We all need to take the time to make it clear while our collective vision is focused to set standards that prevent things from becoming this skewed again.

Yes, we are damaged. No, it is not permanent.

Things will never be 'how the were'. That doesn't excuse us from making sure how things are done now are done as they should be.

My first response was in no way hinting that I don't think we should care or that we will stop caring as soon as the music starts gain. To even mention the Colgan victims is taking what I said entirely out of context. It was directed at the doom and gloomers who think that the industry is ruined. All I was saying is that for the last year or so there are several people on these boards who act like the majors will never hire again and that the industry is destroyed. Most of the time these are the people who are, unfortunately, furloughed. Yes it sucks to get furloughed but you aren't the first and you won't be the last. The industry will evolve and if the furloughed guys decide to come back when they get the call it will just be something they look back on and remember in 10 years. Hows the old saying go? "If you haven't gone through a divorce and a furlough then you aren't an airline pilot." This is just a really bad down turn and things will turn around. In the mean time lets work for the best pay, QOL, and Safety at all levels of aviation. Really for us regional guys its all we can do. Its up to mainline guys to hold onto scope so that the "regional" airlines stay "regional" airlines.

 

[SoCalAprch]

Not sure about AMR, but the average age of an Airways pilot is mid-high 50s.

So that means that airways will have to replace +50% of their pilot group in the next decade. That's a boat load of jobs. I heard somewhere that American's avg. age was right up there if not even higher. American has 11,000 pilots and Airways has 5300. Half that and its 8000 mainline jobs up for grabs in the next decade. And that's just from two airlines! You can hire 4 or 5 regionals whole seniority lists with just those two airlines.

Yet we have people who think like this:

A couple words.

The Damage is Done.

You may be right but I disagree. This type of attitude is extremely short sighted in my opinion.

 

[Firebird2XC]

Re: Regional Data

My first response was in no way hinting that I don't think we should care or that we will stop caring as soon as the music starts gain. To even mention the Colgan victims is taking what I said entirely out of context. It was directed at the doom and gloomers who think that the industry is ruined. All I was saying is that for the last year or so there are several people on these boards who act like the majors will never hire again and that the industry is destroyed. Most of the time these are the people who are, unfortunately, furloughed. Yes it sucks to get furloughed but you aren't the first and you won't be the last. The industry will evolve and if the furloughed guys decide to come back when they get the call it will just be something they look back on and remember in 10 years. Hows the old saying go? "If you haven't gone through a divorce and a furlough then you aren't an airline pilot." This is just a really bad down turn and things will turn around. In the mean time lets work for the best pay, QOL, and Safety at all levels of aviation. Really for us regional guys its all we can do. Its up to mainline guys to hold onto scope so that the "regional" airlines stay "regional" airlines.

I'm still not sure we're on the same page.

Here's how I see it:
In terms of how things are now, the regionals are the new majors of the future.

Spending a few years at a regional then upgrading to a major is a thing of the past. In the future, where we're at now will be some new incarnation of 'majors'.

We're not watching the same old cycle. We're watching things evolve into something new that we've never really dealt with before. That's why we have to implement the right changes now, in the formative stages. Once it's had time to really cement itself into place, it'll be that much harder.

 

[surreal1221]

You may be right but I disagree. This type of attitude is extremely short sighted in my opinion.

...because...

A little bit more meat with that sandwich might help generate a decent discussion. . .

You mention it's shortsighted, now without knowing what you mean since you quit. . .allow me to explain.

The damage is done. The first step in problem solving is obviously acknowledging and identifying the problem. We, at least those of us active in the trade labor movement in this country, recognize the problems impacting the working class. That's on the macro level. Bring it down to our industry, we all are intimately familiar with the challenges we as line pilots face on a daily basis - not only from our companies but by our regulatory body. Even though those who seek not to improve the industry and who are just content to maintain the status quo are a sizable block of our profession, some of us don't mind putting in the extra effort necessary to make long term gains over time.

We've recognized the problems, the damage they've caused, and the factors that brought them about. Certain groups are working to find solutions. They're always looking for assistance, some volunteer, some don't.

But, as I said, the first step is acknowledging the problem. We've done that, now it's time to solve it.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Re: Regional Data

I'm still not sure we're on the same page.

Here's how I see it:
In terms of how things are now, the regionals are the new majors of the future.

Spending a few years at a regional then upgrading to a major is a thing of the past. In the future, where we're at now will be some new incarnation of 'majors'.

We're not watching the same old cycle. We're watching things evolve into something new that we've never really dealt with before. That's why we have to implement the right changes now, in the formative stages. Once it's had time to really cement itself into place, it'll be that much harder.

There will be plenty of spots for guys to move up to the majors. Will there be enough for everyone? No, some guys will certainly have to spend their careers at the regionals, but there will be plenty of opportunities to move up if you have the right experience and credentials. Retirements starting in 2012 are slated to be record numbers.

 

[SoCalAprch]

Re: Regional Data

I'm still not sure we're on the same page.

Here's how I see it:
In terms of how things are now, the regionals are the new majors of the future.

Spending a few years at a regional then upgrading to a major is a thing of the past. In the future, where we're at now will be some new incarnation of 'majors'.

We're not watching the same old cycle. We're watching things evolve into something new that we've never really dealt with before. That's why we have to implement the right changes now, in the formative stages. Once it's had time to really cement itself into place, it'll be that much harder.

What are you seeing that we haven't seen before?

Republic virtually buying Midwest? If that's what it is then I can see what you are saying and I agree. Its horrible what is happening to those pilots and those 400 or so high paying jobs. But in the big scheme of things that was a tiny airline that was struggling to stay out of bankruptcy. Yes it is horrible but its not as if its happening to Delta or American or any of the Legacy airlines.

Other than that I have only seen Majors cutting back flying. Delta is dropping regional flying left and right and there are rumors that United is going to drop a bunch of 50 seat flying next March. Continental has repeatedly told management to shove it when they propose relaxing scope, American's scope is solid and Airways said that there is no way they are giving up more large RJ flying. If anything these seem like steps in the right direction. Yet people some how think that this time its different? But maybe I am missing something that you aren't.

 

[mwflyer]

Re: Regional Data

What are you seeing that we haven't seen before?

Republic virtually buying Midwest? If that's what it is then I can see what you are saying and I agree. Its horrible what is happening to those pilots and those 400 or so high paying jobs. But in the big scheme of things that was a tiny airline that was struggling to stay out of bankruptcy. Yes it is horrible but its not as if its happening to Delta or American or any of the Legacy airlines.

Other than that I have only seen Majors cutting back flying. Delta is dropping regional flying left and right and there are rumors that United is going to drop a bunch of 50 seat flying next March. Continental has repeatedly told management to shove it when they propose relaxing scope, American's scope is solid and Airways said that there is no way they are giving up more large RJ flying. If anything these seem like steps in the right direction. Yet people some how think that this time its different? But maybe I am missing something that you aren't.

Everybody says Continental's scope is set at 50 seats. How come Colgan flies the 70 seat Q's for Continental?

 

[OldTownPilot]

Its been mentioned before but its limited to (274?) 50 seat jets and (unlimited) 79? seat props. Its been that way for years, COex used to fly ATR-72s back in the mid 90s. Its routinely mentioned at 50 seats because one, its a lot easier to just say 50 seats, and two, the regional jets have the range to severely cut into mainline flying where the props do not.

 

[SoCalAprch]

Re: Regional Data

Everybody says Continental's scope is set at 50 seats. How come Colgan flies the 70 seat Q's for Continental?

Granted this may be the case with continental but I have a hard time seeing props getting too much bigger and running lax-ewr. Props aren't possible game changers like the bigger RJs could be.

 

[mwflyer]

Its been mentioned before but its limited to (274?) 50 seat jets and (unlimited) 79? seat props. Its been that way for years, COex used to fly ATR-72s back in the mid 90s. Its routinely mentioned at 50 seats because one, its a lot easier to just say 50 seats, and two, the regional jets have the range to severely cut into mainline flying where the props do not.

Got it. Thanks!

 

[Firebird2XC]

Re: Regional Data

There will be plenty of spots for guys to move up to the majors. Will there be enough for everyone? No, some guys will certainly have to spend their careers at the regionals, but there will be plenty of opportunities to move up if you have the right experience and credentials. Retirements starting in 2012 are slated to be record numbers.

Right.. but the regionals were never meant to be career scenarios. They will be, for a good many thousands of us.

 

[Firebird2XC]

Re: Regional Data

What are you seeing that we haven't seen before?

Republic virtually buying Midwest? If that's what it is then I can see what you are saying and I agree. Its horrible what is happening to those pilots and those 400 or so high paying jobs. But in the big scheme of things that was a tiny airline that was struggling to stay out of bankruptcy. Yes it is horrible but its not as if its happening to Delta or American or any of the Legacy airlines.

Other than that I have only seen Majors cutting back flying. Delta is dropping regional flying left and right and there are rumors that United is going to drop a bunch of 50 seat flying next March. Continental has repeatedly told management to shove it when they propose relaxing scope, American's scope is solid and Airways said that there is no way they are giving up more large RJ flying. If anything these seem like steps in the right direction. Yet people some how think that this time its different? But maybe I am missing something that you aren't.

You do realize, that without change, these scope clauses are all living on borrowed time, right? American's pilots efforts to hold scope have been valiant, but they're fighting a losing battle. Delta's a special case- it inhereited a glut of former Northwest feeders. That and the redundant routing in Northwest itself means cuts. Continental? Q400 program. If Colgan doesn't get rolled in Congress, expect more Q400s in Houston. The Q400 is a clever circumvention of their scope.

The writing's on the wall, friend. We're betting on a flush draw with two cards to go and the companies are holding pocket aces with a pair on the table. We have to knuckle up now or it'll just start all over again.

I personally would like to see life at the Regionals approach a reasonably livable standard. If we make the regionals cost model realistic enough in terms of how it should be, we won't be such an easy replacement for mainline flying.

That way, those of us who DO make it to whatever is left of mainline ops, better or worse, will also have better job security then as well.

 

[SoCalAprch]

Re: Regional Data

You do realize, that without change, these scope clauses are all living on borrowed time, right? American's pilots efforts to hold scope have been valiant, but they're fighting a losing battle. Delta's a special case- it inhereited a glut of former Northwest feeders. That and the redundant routing in Northwest itself means cuts. Continental? Q400 program. If Colgan doesn't get rolled in Congress, expect more Q400s in Houston. The Q400 is a clever circumvention of their scope.

The writing's on the wall, friend. We're betting on a flush draw with two cards to go and the companies are holding pocket aces with a pair on the table. We have to knuckle up now or it'll just start all over again.

I personally would like to see life at the Regionals approach a reasonably livable standard. If we make the regionals cost model realistic enough in terms of how it should be, we won't be such an easy replacement for mainline flying.

That way, those of us who DO make it to whatever is left of mainline ops, better or worse, will also have better job security then as well.

I agree with you that things need to be better at the regional level and the pay needs to come up appropriately, I volunteer my time with our union for that reason. I don't think you understand what the point I am trying to make is and I certainly don't agree with the doom and gloom scenario that you are constantly painting. I'm just stating my view on how the job market at the major level will be in the next several years. You make it seem like I am giving up at the regional level because I think that we will be out in the next few years. Just because I think that we will be able to progress to the majors doesn't mean that I want to throw in the towel at the regional level. So stop insinuating that, I have never once said that this is a reason to not fight for the best while here.

Also I really don't see American and their scope going anywhere and I really don't see the Q doing anything more than the type of stuff they are doing now. You really think you will see the Q flying between longer distant city pairs?

In short I'm not knocking your opinion, I'm just stating mine. Agree to Disagree I guess.

 

[Firebird2XC]

Re: Regional Data

Also I really don't see American and their scope going anywhere and I really don't see the Q doing anything more than the type of stuff they are doing now. You really think you will see the Q flying between longer distant city pairs?

In short I'm not knocking your opinion, I'm just stating mine. Agree to Disagree I guess.

I think, given your last statement, perhaps we could both take care to keep the vinegar down in our statements. I know I should, at the very least. I can be a little hotheaded at times. Didn't mean to give offense.

As for American, us Eaglets spend countless hours talking out the possible scenarios for each sparring sessions between APA negotiators and AMR.
Truthfully, the APA doesn't hold the cards it sometimes thinks it does. AMR lags behind the rest of the industry in fleet composition, etc, and letting things drag on to appease the APA is the last of AMR's plans.

Things will get worse for AA pilots before they get better. Once again, just my opinion, but I see things from the inside.

As for CAL, I firmly believe that you'll see more large turboprop aircraft being flown somewhere, somehow. Possibilities of IAH flying for Colgan, etc, have long been discussed. The distances in Texas are a bit more involved- the options for larger loads on bigger planes definitely exist. I see a good number of outstations that Eagle services with 50 seaters and ATRs and see Colgan Saabs there. Q400s would be a beast of a competitor for CAL, and they know it.

Regardless of what does or does not come to pass, the camel's proverbial nose is under the tent when it comes to regional affiliates. "Taking it back" to the way it was in the 70's and 80's really isn't a valid option- the paradigm has shifted considerably too far, in my opinion.

With the generational shift and new pilots joining the ranks, I expect to see the last of the "Old Guard" pilots that remember the lingering Regulation-style careers to retire.. and we're all that's left.

I just seriously think we're way behind in the game.

 

[SoCalAprch]

Re: Regional Data

I think, given your last statement, perhaps we could both take care to keep the vinegar down in our statements. I know I should, at the very least. I can be a little hotheaded at times. Didn't mean to give offense.

As for American, us Eaglets spend countless hours talking out the possible scenarios for each sparring sessions between APA negotiators and AMR.
Truthfully, the APA doesn't hold the cards it sometimes thinks it does. AMR lags behind the rest of the industry in fleet composition, etc, and letting things drag on to appease the APA is the last of AMR's plans.

Things will get worse for AA pilots before they get better. Once again, just my opinion, but I see things from the inside.

As for CAL, I firmly believe that you'll see more large turboprop aircraft being flown somewhere, somehow. Possibilities of IAH flying for Colgan, etc, have long been discussed. The distances in Texas are a bit more involved- the options for larger loads on bigger planes definitely exist. I see a good number of outstations that Eagle services with 50 seaters and ATRs and see Colgan Saabs there. Q400s would be a beast of a competitor for CAL, and they know it.

Regardless of what does or does not come to pass, the camel's proverbial nose is under the tent when it comes to regional affiliates. "Taking it back" to the way it was in the 70's and 80's really isn't a valid option- the paradigm has shifted considerably too far, in my opinion.

With the generational shift and new pilots joining the ranks, I expect to see the last of the "Old Guard" pilots that remember the lingering Regulation-style careers to retire.. and we're all that's left.

I just seriously think we're way behind in the game.

Its hard to judge someones tone from reading and I can see how you guys and gals could think I am pissed or talking down but it is more that I am a crap writer and post mostly when I have been drinking. Doesn't really add up to make me an eloquent interweb opinion.

As for American I do agree that things will get worse there before they get better and they may even reduce scope to the point that Eagle starts flying some more big CRJs or I have even heard the 170/190 rumor. But I don't think that if American has Eagle fly some bigger RJs that it will be ruined for AA. This isn't what I am hoping to see by any means just saying that all is not lost if it does end up happening. If this does happen the APA needs to be sure that there is a hard limit and that the company is on the same page. Hopefully reducing the 50 seaters 1 to 1 if they add any larger CRJs or EMBs. Again I am in no way supporting this I just am saying that just because a few more show up doesn't mean that the majors will lose all scope. As for Continental time will tell what happens with those Qs. I do see how they could be a good option for the IAH intra texas stuff.

I agree that we are way too far behind in the game. And everyone on here that is screaming for better rules and pay should be volunteering their time.
:beer: