Get ready folks!
- Thread starter Seggy
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mtsu_av8er
Well-Known Member
The sky is falling!
For those of us without advanced degrees in airline stuff
, why do you think this will happen?
Seggy
Well-Known Member
For those of us without advanced degrees in airline stuff
In my opinion, they are merging to consolidate.
CFIscare
Well-Known Member
Word with a capital W.
Ddub1214
Well-Known Member
True, but that is a pretty big generalization. The mergers will consolidate in the short term, but hopefully make the companies stronger and more competitive in the long term as more flying goes from the regionals back to mainline. If there is a reduction in capacity, look for LCCs to snap it up. Remember air travel is still forecasted to grow over the next 10 years, I would expect it to come at the mainline and LCC level rather than the regional level that we've seen in the last decade.
With oil prices as high as they are, and no relief in sight, 50 seat flying is quickly becoming unsustainable. Look for a reduction in 50 seat flying as regional contracts expire in the next 2-10 years. Thats not to say 50 seaters will be gone all together, but regionals flying the CRJ 7/9 and E170s will have a much better chance of weathering the storm, and there will be an overall reduction in the regional industry.
So yes, 2008 will not see the amount of hiring and growth we saw in 2007, age 65 didn't help, and it might be a good idea for people looking to move up to wait for the dust to settle in case the mergers result in furloughs, but in the long term we should be looking at an increase in higher paying jobs available, which is a good thing.
just my 2 cents...
I'm no expert, but with the forecasted increase in demand for air travel over the next 10+ years, I can't see the airlines, even with a merger, consolidate too much. I think a merger might be a great way to grow, without as much competition, thus opening more jobs.
I know the airlines do not always make sense, but NW, and DL are still hiring in pretty good numbers, and I can't imagine they would still be doing that, if they knew they were merging imminently, and would shrink/furlough. I also think retirements, although now are slowing things down, in five years, will once again be an issue.
I think mainline will probably take back some flying, but I still think the regionals will have a pretty big presence, especially for smaller to medium markets. I just think we are going to see a shift from 50 seat flying, to 70 seat prop, and jet flying.
I think we will see a slow down, at first, while things get hashed out, but I actually believe these mergers will/can be a very good thing for those in, and looking to get into this industry. We will see.
I know the airlines do not always make sense, but NW, and DL are still hiring in pretty good numbers, and I can't imagine they would still be doing that, if they knew they were merging imminently, and would shrink/furlough. I also think retirements, although now are slowing things down, in five years, will once again be an issue.
I think mainline will probably take back some flying, but I still think the regionals will have a pretty big presence, especially for smaller to medium markets. I just think we are going to see a shift from 50 seat flying, to 70 seat prop, and jet flying.
I think we will see a slow down, at first, while things get hashed out, but I actually believe these mergers will/can be a very good thing for those in, and looking to get into this industry. We will see.
CFIscare
Well-Known Member
Without a doubt man. Stability is what we lack in this industry and while mergers won't fix this, it will make it better.
Once airlines merge, you can expect a reduction in some fashion for the merged airlines. You can also expect the airlines (American, USAir, ect.) that didn't merge to pick up some of that reduction.
I expect to see hiring slowed for the next few years for the major carriers, followed by a huge period of hiring due to the mergers being settled and the merged airlines growing along with the age 65 retirement.
kellwolf
Piece of Trash
It's almost a perfect storm. Age 65 knocked a hit on the hiring. I think most of it is from HR departments being smart by taking a "wait and see" mentality on who's going where rather than guys sticking it out another 5 years. Although, if those guys took the same hit on their 401K as I did in the past several months, I could be wrong.
When two airlines merge, you go from two airlines hiring to one, which is naturally going to slow down hiring at that level. Combine that with age 65, and you've got a big slow down. The big question is are the merged airlines going to reduce flying, transfer more to the regionals, keep the same amount, etc, etc. Thing is, we're not gonna know until after they make the announcements.
The key thing in this environment is not to get wrapped around the axle on things out of your control. Plan for the worst but hope for the best and you'll come out okay in the end. You can stress all day long over if your base is gonna close b/c two major airlines merged. At the end of the day, you've got no control over the issue, so the BP spike isn't worth it. Think that's gonna happen? Check out the forced re-location clause in the union contract and start saving money. If it doesn't happen, you've got some money saved and you're a little wiser in contract knowledge. If it does happen, you're ahead of the game already.
When two airlines merge, you go from two airlines hiring to one, which is naturally going to slow down hiring at that level. Combine that with age 65, and you've got a big slow down. The big question is are the merged airlines going to reduce flying, transfer more to the regionals, keep the same amount, etc, etc. Thing is, we're not gonna know until after they make the announcements.
The key thing in this environment is not to get wrapped around the axle on things out of your control. Plan for the worst but hope for the best and you'll come out okay in the end. You can stress all day long over if your base is gonna close b/c two major airlines merged. At the end of the day, you've got no control over the issue, so the BP spike isn't worth it. Think that's gonna happen? Check out the forced re-location clause in the union contract and start saving money. If it doesn't happen, you've got some money saved and you're a little wiser in contract knowledge. If it does happen, you're ahead of the game already.
scramjet
Well-Known Member
We'll see. You can't predict the airline industry though. You think you can and you get fooled by cycles, but then suddenly the cycles are broken. Although USAir has been a pretty consistent example of cycles...
As others have said, loads are only going to increase. In terms of pilot hiring, private/corporate/fractional aviation is seemingly growing a lot and that could be a factor in airline hiring in the next 20 years. But as I always say, I'm by far no expert.
As others have said, loads are only going to increase. In terms of pilot hiring, private/corporate/fractional aviation is seemingly growing a lot and that could be a factor in airline hiring in the next 20 years. But as I always say, I'm by far no expert.
mtsu_av8er
Well-Known Member
Exactly! I'm more concerned about where I'm going to get my next corn dog than I am about what these two airlines do, because I can do nothing about it either way.
LoadMasterC141
Well-Known Member
Nor can one really prophesize the outcome of it either.
Last year, the sky is falling folks hollered that planes would be falling out of the sky due to the low time pilots in the cockpits. Hmmm.
You can stand around and speculate all day about what ifs when it comes to this industry it seems.
Last year, the sky is falling folks hollered that planes would be falling out of the sky due to the low time pilots in the cockpits. Hmmm.
You can stand around and speculate all day about what ifs when it comes to this industry it seems.
mtsu_av8er
Well-Known Member
You don't really need a reason, you know - you can just walk away. . .
WAFlyBoy
Well-Known Member
I suspect that will vary by individual.
mtsu_av8er
Well-Known Member
Not, it really doesn't. Nobody is being forced at all. There are no armed guards, there are no jail sentences if you quit. There will be no M.P.s looking for you if you go. Just another job that somebody else is willing to do.
So, if all you " . . . need is a good reason" to leave the industry (your words, not mine), what's stopping you? Haven't you had enough reasons? Or, is it just the cool way to talk now?
Chris_Ford
Well-Known Member
Prepare Your Umbrellas!111
(see title)
CUZ WHEN IT RAINS, YO' GONNA GET WET.
Does anyone really think that after all this merger stuff, there won't be less regional flying?
I doubt that the music will stop at the regional level for 5 years. Maybe a year or two max, but there are plenty of other things to be blamed, age 65 and an economic slowdown. Mergers would be an effect, not a cause.
(see title)
CUZ WHEN IT RAINS, YO' GONNA GET WET.
Does anyone really think that after all this merger stuff, there won't be less regional flying?
I doubt that the music will stop at the regional level for 5 years. Maybe a year or two max, but there are plenty of other things to be blamed, age 65 and an economic slowdown. Mergers would be an effect, not a cause.
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