Gas Prices again? (Oil prices/politics)
- Thread starter Maddog1974
- Start date
Polar742
All the responsibility none of the authority
I just won a free beer didn't I?
Pilotforhire587
Lycra Man
In 20 years... I predict there will be no regionals... I think if there are airlines there will only be majors, and then we will all be pissed that we had to start with the crappy jobs we have now to get to a major... That or the regionals will all be flying turbo props, and the general public that thinks they are old and deadly will have to shove it or drive. Continental (new United) is already starting to invest more money into turboprobs for Colgan and CommutAir. With the speeds the Q400 can put out you can do the 700 mile leg from EWR to BNA in a little over 25 minutes more than the EMB145 will do it, burn a little more than half the gas, and carry 20 more people while doing it... Its common sense...
surreal1221
Well-Known Member
Because Common Sense has been dictating the US Domestic airline business model for...oh...never?
Blackhawk
Well-Known Member
Most still are. Usually the small ones get hit first. Not sure how long it will keep up at these levels.
Blackhawk
Well-Known Member
Regulation is not going to fix inflation. Most commodities are priced in dollars. The government has been printing money like it was toilet paper. Thus, the dollar has been tanking which means oil, coal, gold, food, etc cost more since... as mentioned... they are priced in dollars throughout the world. It was true in the Roman Empire, it's true today. The major reason unrest started in the first place in the Middle East was a rise in the price of food.
Polar742
All the responsibility none of the authority
Our company has a pretty solid record of prognostication over the last few years. You might see a slight flattening of demand, but last year freight volumes were above a historic peak in 2007.
I think the 135 small freight industry has had some fundamental shifts due to the huge reduction of their traditional markets (checks and car parts) and is still reconfiguring from that.
There is a very good presentation on my company's home page about what's getting moved and the scenario of the value of that transportation of goods at various oil prices.
Of course a fundamental collapse like in 2008 can change things, but as has been pointed out, we were hauling nothing for a good 6 months prior to that. Our loads are still great, and even better, is that we are hauling more out of the US than we were during our "economic boom" of the early 2000s.
Blackhawk
Well-Known Member
I don't disagree. My point was if cargo starts to slow down it is an indicator of what is going to hit everyone else. If gas stays above $4/gallon, or even worse gets above $5/gallon, I don't think cargo operators will be able to sustain it very long without passing on the costs. Just talk to truck drivers who are seeing their profits go into their tanks. People probably will not be able to absorb the higher costs so... we shall see.
b.s. No, CAPITAL B.S. Gas prices are artifically high. I follow a lot of what is going on with fuel prices, since it effects us all so much. Yes, the dollar has weakened. But the prices are artifically high so people can line their pocket with money. Production has been cut back because "gasp" there is a surplus of oil in the market right now. I sitll pay the same for a gallon of milk I paid 4 months ago. I still pay the same for the cereal my son eats, etc. But oil has gone up almost 100% in the last year. All because of speculators are artifically driving the price up from buying and selling it like a stock.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Saudi-oil-minister-High-oil-apf-2179386893.html?x=0
http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/anal...ntinue-to-artificially-prop-up-oil-prices824/
I like the title on this one, it says it all
"Paper money chasing paper barrels"
http://www.fueltracker.com/artificially-high-gas-prices
http://www.fortunewatch.com/the-oil-price-scandal/
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticke...lators-428683.html?tickers=xom,xle,gs,xlf,uup
No mind you, some of the article are old. But the game was the same then as it is now. I need to step away. My blood is starting to boil.
Blackhawk
Well-Known Member
Not just oil, all commodities have risen. If an item is priced in dollars, and people do not feel their dollars will buy as much, you will pay more for that item- maybe even if there is a surplus. Yes, some in the government would like you to believe it is someone else's fault.
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-10.html
"However, this does not rule out the possibility that expansionary monetary policy in a large country such as the United States may also have contributed to the global rise in commodity prices. Monetary policy can affect commodity prices through several channels. For instance, monetary policy influences interest rates, and rates in turn affect demand for commodities. In the case of LSAPs, Fed purchases of long-term Treasury securities may lower long-term interest rates through the portfolio balance channel. If different assets are imperfect substitutes in investor portfolios, a decline in the relative supply of Treasury securities available to private investors will result in higher prices and lower yields on these assets. The resulting stimulus to aggregate demand can boost demand for all goods, including commodities.
The prices of storable commodities could also rise as interest rates fall because, by decreasing the cost of carrying inventories, lower rates stimulate inventory demand for commodities. Moreover, because most commodities are priced in U.S. dollars, the lower value of the dollar that frequently follows an easier monetary stance would tend to reduce the relative price of commodities for holders of other currencies, also increasing demand. Finally, to the extent that commodity prices are relatively flexible, they may respond to economic developments more quickly than other goods prices. As a result, higher inflation expectations in the wake of looser U.S. monetary policy could be quickly reflected in the prices of commodities that are determined by forward-looking asset market considerations."
Not sure how your milk prices have stayed the same. Mine rose.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-02-14/rising-milk-prices-are-new-normal-fonterra-says.html
http://www.capitalpress.com/content/LM-Dairyline-022511
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-10.html
"However, this does not rule out the possibility that expansionary monetary policy in a large country such as the United States may also have contributed to the global rise in commodity prices. Monetary policy can affect commodity prices through several channels. For instance, monetary policy influences interest rates, and rates in turn affect demand for commodities. In the case of LSAPs, Fed purchases of long-term Treasury securities may lower long-term interest rates through the portfolio balance channel. If different assets are imperfect substitutes in investor portfolios, a decline in the relative supply of Treasury securities available to private investors will result in higher prices and lower yields on these assets. The resulting stimulus to aggregate demand can boost demand for all goods, including commodities.
The prices of storable commodities could also rise as interest rates fall because, by decreasing the cost of carrying inventories, lower rates stimulate inventory demand for commodities. Moreover, because most commodities are priced in U.S. dollars, the lower value of the dollar that frequently follows an easier monetary stance would tend to reduce the relative price of commodities for holders of other currencies, also increasing demand. Finally, to the extent that commodity prices are relatively flexible, they may respond to economic developments more quickly than other goods prices. As a result, higher inflation expectations in the wake of looser U.S. monetary policy could be quickly reflected in the prices of commodities that are determined by forward-looking asset market considerations."
Not sure how your milk prices have stayed the same. Mine rose.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-02-14/rising-milk-prices-are-new-normal-fonterra-says.html
http://www.capitalpress.com/content/LM-Dairyline-022511
Sidebar: It's been a very long day and all, but that really disoriented me for what felt like an eternity. Nice. Yes I was even envisioning the inside of an empty 74. Off to bed now, thanks for the laugh.
spades9048
Well-Known Member
Thank OPEC. Legal price fixing at it's finest. The food producing countries need to fix prices as food is sold back to oil producing countries who do not have the proper land to feed themselves.
LoadMasterC141
Well-Known Member
Have 2 friends that were hired at ASA this month. One yesterday. It is something more than gas prices I think. Most airlines will not tell you why you did not get the job because they are not required to. If they do tell you, and you don;t like the answer, others have sued in the past - and ruined it for everyone else as far as I am concerned.
Josh7
Well-Known Member
Well I better put my .02 cents in on oil. I personally think oil prices are going to haunt us until either: a) huge reserves are found somewhere that are currently not known about or b) we find some sort of alternate fuel. One of the biggest problems that isn't talked about much all stems back to past and current budgets that our govenment sets for each fiscal year. This current proposed budget for the next fiscal year expects revenues from taxes to be at 2.7 trillion (don't remember exact numbers) compared to nearly 4 trillion in expenditures. This means we have to print more and more money because we are spending more than we bring in. The Fed right now is printing money like its going out of style. Why does this matter? It devalues the dollar, plain and simple. This is one of the main problems with the high prices. The Fed is playing a dangerous game right now by devaluing our currency and other things they have done. Obviously there are many factors like speculation, tension in Libyia and so on causing the high prices, but until we get our spending in check as a nation we are in trouble not just with oil prices.
Blackhawk
Well-Known Member
That can't be true. It can't be our fault, it has to be the fault of someone else.
LoadMasterC141
Well-Known Member
We are a small fraction of the world population yet consume 1/4th of the natural resources of the world. It was only a matter of time before the others started to catch up on quality of life, especially given that we have helped them get there. Consequently, we cannot continue to consume that much. All that is fact.
My opinion is that there are some very easy ways for us to to consume less, especially in terms of oil. It would not even be that big of an inconvenience. Do I need to go through them? I bet anyone reading this can plainly see obvious answers. Spoiled rotten little S$$$s we have become. Savings on air travel is such a small part too.
My opinion is that there are some very easy ways for us to to consume less, especially in terms of oil. It would not even be that big of an inconvenience. Do I need to go through them? I bet anyone reading this can plainly see obvious answers. Spoiled rotten little S$$$s we have become. Savings on air travel is such a small part too.
Inverted25
Well-Known Member
Lets get into the alternative oil source conversation. Was reading today at shale oil and sand oil which the United States has a ton of. Right now we don't do much with it because int he past it was too expensive to get out. But at current prices it would be profitable. They think there is more shale oil in the United States that is recoverable than the current light sweet crude oil that S.A. pumps out. If this is true we could have a long term supply of oil coming from here in the United States. Canada already processes a ton of sand oil from their own reserves which are the largest in the world when it comes to sand oil.
LoadMasterC141
Well-Known Member
Why get into the alternative oil conversation when we can talk about using less oil? Seems to be an easier concept. Seriously. The next soccer mom you see at the red light in her shiny new H1 - Knock her ass out. Tell her to get her smug on and drive a shiny new Honda Fit. Spend more on gardening your own vegetables.
Apophis
Resident Iconoclast
Exactly. I don't feel an inkling of remorse for people who bitch about gas prices, yet they drive around town in their F-1000 pickup truck and it's amazing 5MPG fuel efficiency. You made your bed, now be prepared to lie in it.