GAO Report on the pilot shortage...

ZapBrannigan said:
Boy I hope option two isn't the answer. That is a b scale by it's very definition. The "work around" being that the B's aren't on the same seniority list so there is no expectation that the association will bargain to increase wages for the unwashed masses flying for the "regionals".
Click to expand...

Actually, in my scenario, they are on the same seniority list. They don't have a flow-through, they have an actual number on the mainline list.

Option B should be a non-starter, because somebody is always going to be left standing when the music stops.
Click to expand...

The regional "lifers," who make up a significant section of the seniority lists at some of these regional carriers, would say that Option 1 is the non-starter. From their perspective, they shouldn't be asked to give up their career that they decided to make at the regional airlines just because you want to bring flying back to mainline.

Perspective is everything. The solution that you feel is correct is not correct for someone else. This is why I've always argued that regional pilots should be given mainline numbers. It solves the shortage problem, and it still gives the regional lifers who like their regional seniority the choice of deciding to stay at their regional instead of exercising their number to move up to mainline. But, as always is the case with pilots, egos get in the way of such a thing. The same reason we don't have a national seniority list and never will.

Let the market decide if the costs are too high for it to be sustainable.
Click to expand...

The market has already decided. You just haven't realized it yet.
 
Ok, so if they are given mainline numbers than ALPA is instantly obligated to spend negotiating capital to end the B scale. The end game is the same in both your scenario and mine.

Clearly we aren't going to persuade one another though, so I'll bow out.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
Ok, so if they are given mainline numbers than ALPA is instantly obligated to spend negotiating capital to end the B scale.
Click to expand...

Why? Is ALPA obligated to eliminate first year pay at Delta? It's no different. It just becomes a new rung on the mainline pay scale. It's not a B scale as you state, because the people hired into the regional don't have a different mainline scale than the rest of the mainline pilots. They're just waiting for their new mainline number to have the bidding power to bid into the mainline equipment.
 
In all seriousness there isn't much more to say than this....

ATN_Pilot said:
I see two possible solutions at this point:

1. Many of the regionals go out of business, leaving only a couple of them providing all of the profitable 70-78 seat feed.

or

2. The pilots agree to working for less in exchange for guaranteed career progression. A pilot would be willing to work for $22k his first year if he's handed a mainline seniority number the day he shows up for class at his regional airline. If such a system were set up, pilots would come out of the woodwork to accept those crappy first year wages.
Click to expand...

You hit the nail on the head with this. Not much more to say otherwise.
 
Major airlines will pay extra for lift to bismark with frequency, and there is still a lot of flying like that out there to be done.
A C+ scale is still cheaper than a B scale and even cheaper and more frequent than the A scale.
If majors were unprofitable then the out look would be bleak for everybody, but with record profits, Grand Forks is a great lose-leader (if need be) to connect a few business men to Denver for Narita.
 
UIPilot45X said:
This report was published this morning. It's being pushed on a lot of major news networks...that's where I heard it. I did not read the whole thing, just the executive summary...but it seems that the majority of you guys on this forum are correct...there is not a shortage of pilots per-say...but a shortage of pilots willing to work for the wage and benefit package that the regional airlines offer.

http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-14-232
Click to expand...

There's a shortage of Ferrari dealerships.

Well, a shortage of Ferrari dealerships that will sell me a brand-new funky-fresh Ferrari 458 "Italia" for $50,000.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
Are you hanging out at his house yet? Has he shown you the Marine sword? Do you call him Kemo?

Just wondering. ;)
Click to expand...

He's probably got a hit out on me. I've talked a DPA-level of crap about him over the years and even missed out on a volunteer position because of it.

But that's ok.
 
A would be perfect equilibrium aka never gonna happen with W1 and L1

B is "where we are" at a regional level This seems to be very subjective from a labor supply issue but just roll with it.... Wages are W2 and create two different labor points. One on supply, one on demand. As you can see there is a shortage between labor points L2 to L3 (loss of labor from L2 to L1 if we were at equilibrium). At this wage though the loss is between L2 to L3..at those wages the supply is at intersection B creating labor point 3. They want more than we are supplying (they being regional airlines)

So how do we stay at point B? Shift the demand for regional pilots (line D1 shifts to D2)---return flying to mainline and therefore the demand for regional pilots stays low, and wages stay where they are.

What we are seeing now, is the supply of pilots willing to work for wage W2....so at point C we see supply of pilots decreasing (line S1 shifting to S2) willing to work for wage 2 and end up at point C. What happens after that we are not sure and just starting to find out...



yada yada dead weight loss somewhere in there

JurrESt.jpg
 
ATN_Pilot said:
I don't know why people can't figure this out: the regionals can't afford to pay anymore. They're topped out. They're bidding on flying at a loss already in some cases.

THERE IS A SHORTAGE!
Click to expand...
So you are saying mainline built a foundation that is about to be washed out to sea unless they are willing to pay their regionals a bit better. Sad since this whole problem wasn't exactly unpredictable when they were growing the regionals.
 
Maurus said:
So you are saying mainline built a foundation that is about to be washed out to sea unless they are willing to pay their regionals a bit better. Sad since this whole problem wasn't exactly unpredictable when they were growing the regionals.
Click to expand...

That's not entirely fair. Remember, when the regionals were being built up to monstrous sizes, oil was selling for $20/bbl. Seat-mile costs are a whole lot different when oil prices are less than a quarter of what they are now.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
Let the market decide if the costs are too high for it to be sustainable.
Click to expand...

Don't forget that the second option would just drive away the experienced pilots even further such as Expats and people established in other parts of the industry. They don't want to go to a regional and giving everyone at the regionals a mainline seniority number would require them to go to a regional for that terrible pay. Personally I would be pissed if they did give everyone numbers. I would much rather take my chances in the current market at this point.
 
We are all saying the same thing. What most people call a shortage is when the supply curve and the demand curve don't meet. The gap between the two curves, that's the shortage. If you go further up the supply curve (pay more), the gap shrinks. A shortage never exists in economic terms, but rather the supply and dans curves slide up/down and have various equilibria. Shortage is just a lay term for a gap between the supply and demand curves.

So yes, the gap exists. No one can say that gap doesn't exist. It will remain because the regionals can't afford to pay more without getting paid more by the majors. It will take time, and a few regionals going under before the pay can go up. In the meantime it will be a crapola sandwich at the regional level.

So I'll stop saying there's a shortage of pilots. I'll just say there's a gap between the supply and demand curves if that makes you happy. But it means the same thing.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top