GAO Report on the pilot shortage...

[Boris Badenov]

I'm not sure what it would take for you to think there's a shortage if this doesn't count.

Well, it would take a shortage of pilots. There is, materially, certainly, verifiably-by-FAA-records, no shortage of ATP rated pilots. There are more than enough of us to fill all the cockpits in the land and have plenty left over. A "pilot-shortage" would mean that there were not enough pilots. There are enough pilots. I'm not sure how much simpler this could be.

 

[PhilosopherPilot]

Well, it would take a shortage of pilots. There is, materially, certainly, verifiably-by-FAA-records, no shortage of ATP rated pilots. There are more than enough of us to fill all the cockpits in the land and have plenty left over. A "pilot-shortage" would mean that there were not enough pilots. There are enough pilots. I'm not sure how much simpler this could be.

You mean the FAA certificated pilots who are all back in China after they completed their training?

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

When classes are going unfilled, that's a shortage. Trying to claim otherwise is unbelievably disingenuous, and it hurts your credibility.

 

[PhilosopherPilot]

The deal is there aren't enough entry-level pilots. Regionals are entry-level airline jobs. If they weren't, those airlines wouldn't exist because the majors would just pay their own people if there were no cost savings.

So, yeah, there is a shortage of new guys. No G650 pilot is going to go fly a CRJ200, even if it paid 50% more. The pipeline is too small to supply the regionals with the number of new pilots they need, and the 1500 hour rule created a (possibly momentary) crisis in the number of qualified people in the market for an entry level job.

It's no surprise either. It has been openly discussed at ASA/XJT in FLT Ops meetings since before the merger that 2014 was going to be terrible. Here we are.

 

[PhilosopherPilot]

When classes are going unfilled, that's a shortage. Trying to claim otherwise is unbelievably disingenuous, and it hurts your credibility.

Yup. It's a very odd argument.



Quoted from Wikipedia: (Note the part about external forces. That's key here.)


Economic shortages are related to price—when the price of an item is set below the equilibrium rate determined by supply and demand, there will be a shortage. In most cases, a shortage will compel firms to increase the price of a product until it reaches market equilibrium. Sometimes, however, external forces cause more permanent shortages—in other words, there is something preventing prices from rising or otherwise keeping supply and demand balanced.

 

[MikeD]

Face it.

Kit Darby was right.

 

[Boris Badenov]

When classes are going unfilled, that's a shortage. Trying to claim otherwise is unbelievably disingenuous, and it hurts your credibility.

FFS, failing to understand the structure of the English language hurts your "credibility". If, you know, you're terribly interested in being considered "credible" on the internet.

short·age
[shawr-tij] Show IPA
noun
1.
a deficiency in quantity

When you use the word to modify "pilot", and nothing else, it means that there is a deficiency in the quantity of pilots. That's what it means. It's a linguistic certainty. It's not up for debate, that's what the words mean. And as quoted above and in every other of the 3,000 "pilot shortage" threads we have had in the last month, there are plenty of pilots, whether they're in China or Home Depot or on the freaking moon. They exist. So there is no shortage. QED. Now, if you modified the word pilot further, (say "stupid pilots") or maybe changed the noun that you're modifying, (like "innumerate suckers"), the notion of a "shortage" might make some linguistic sense.

And incidentally, in case these are other words you don't understand:

un·be·liev·a·ble
[uhn-bi-lee-vuh-buh

l] Show IPA
adjective
1.
too dubious or improbable to be believed


dis·in·gen·u·ous
[dis-in-jen-yoo-uh

s] Show IPA
adjective
lacking in frankness, candor, or sincerity

I assure you that I am 100% sincere in my belief that the rules of English grammar and basic logical sense should be obeyed. Even on the internet.

 

[CoffeeIcePapers]

You mean the FAA certificated pilots who are all back in China after they completed their training?

Not many Chinese stick around for an ATP. I would venture to say that most foreigners here to do training leave with a CMEL and only about 10% or less come back for an ATP. Some Maldivians and Sri Lankans get US ATPs, but most just do it in their own country.

I think we are getting hungup over the term shortage. If all the estimates are right, this is just the beginning and in 5-6 years, the real shortage will be here, as we aren't producing a lot of US pilots at the moment.

 

[JustinS]

Well if regionals aren't short on pilots, then why are they all struggling to fill classes?? (Rhetorical question...)

It may be a financially self-induced pilot shortage, but it does not discredit the fact that they are legitimately short on pilots willing to work for them...

 

[moxiepilot]

I think you guys are just hung up on the word "shortage." I'm not sure what it would take for you to think there's a shortage if this doesn't count.

Actually the GAO report defines a shortage. It's a good read. You should read it. All of it. It supports your position as well as my posttion. So instead of debating semantics, look at it for its content.

Then recognize they point out viable ways to fix the situation.

 

[PhilosopherPilot]

Actually the GAO report defines a shortage. It's a good read. You should read it. All of it. It supports your position as well as my posttion. So instead of debating semantics, look at it for its content.

Then recognize they point out viable ways to fix the situation.

Will do. I worked a double yesterday, do I was too tired to read anything in detail.

 

[ZapBrannigan]

I know that most of you are too young to remember this, but in 1996 Mesa Airlines was considered the bottom of the barrel with regard to pilot compensation (among other things). Jonathan Ornstein, the CEO, was asked in an interview why he paid his pilots so little.

His response was that pilots show up to fill classes every two weeks so he thought he was probably paying them too much.

The moral of the story is ... (deep breath) Johnny was right. Only now we are seeing the other side of the coin.

I still disagree that here is a shortage. There are plenty of corporate, 135, military etc pilots in the US alone (not counting the thousands of furloughed and expats). The airlines seem to suddenly think that the laws of supply and demand only work in one direction. There is no shortage, there are simply enough options that pilots can be picky. The balance has shifted a bit.

When the regionals start paying market wages for those positions and STILL can't fill classes, then I will acknowledge a shortage.

I know at least a dozen corporate pilots who would love to go fly for the airlines but can't afford the pay cut to do so.

 

[moxiepilot]

Will do. I worked a double yesterday, do I was too tired to read anything in detail.

Sorry I was feeling a little snarky yesterday. It is a good read, but thanks for taking the high road. I just get tired of this debate... : p

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

I know that most of you are too young to remember this, but in 1996 Mesa Airlines was considered the bottom of the barrel with regard to pilot compensation (among other things). Jonathan Ornstein, the CEO, was asked in an interview why he paid his pilots so little.

His response was that pilots show up to fill classes every two weeks so he thought he was probably paying them too much.

The moral of the story is ... (deep breath) Johnny was right. Only now we are seeing the other side of the coin.

I still disagree that here is a shortage. There are plenty of corporate, 135, military etc pilots in the US alone (not counting the thousands of furloughed and expats). The airlines seem to suddenly think that the laws of supply and demand only work in one direction. There is no shortage, there are simply enough options that pilots can be picky. The balance has shifted a bit.

When the regionals start paying market wages for those positions and STILL can't fill classes, then I will acknowledge a shortage.

I know at least a dozen corporate pilots who would love to go fly for the airlines but can't afford the pay cut to do so.

I don't know why people can't figure this out: the regionals can't afford to pay anymore. They're topped out. They're bidding on flying at a loss already in some cases.

THERE IS A SHORTAGE!

 

[Pilot Fighter]

When the regionals start paying market wages for those positions and STILL can't fill classes, then I will acknowledge a shortage.

Market wages will be the wages that fill the classes, nothing more.

Future contracts with the majors will address the problem but regionals have the ability to kick the can down the road a bit with nothing more than promises and chump change. Income dynamics is a strange science. The difference between $25K and $30K is big for a prospective employee.

The regionals might also recognize that the majors will be picking up their captains at a faster rate and make some promises regarding advancement. In other words, regional captains might make less to subsidize first-year FOs.

I'm also curious if regionals could quickly establish relationships with community colleges to attract pilots close to 1250 hours.

I don't think you have to do that much to fill those classes.

 

[ZapBrannigan]

I don't know why YOU can't figure it out. The COST of a product or service has increased - no different than the cost of fuel increasing, or the cost of tires increasing. The vendor will have to pass along the costs of that service to their major airline partner who will in turn have to pass it along to the consumer OR come up with an alternative such as reducing the schedule or suspending service to unsustainable markets.

There is no economic law that says the regionals have to continue to be able to undercut one another in order to run an unsustainable business model.

If pilot talent is considered a commodity, then the cost of that talent increases as the supply dwindled.

Kind of like saying there isn't any more oil the ground. There is plenty of oil, but the oil that is easy to access has been tapped. It will be far more challenging and expensive to get the remaining oil out of the ground. Does that mean that Exxon is going out of business? Nope. Does I t mean you are going to pay $5 a gallon for gas? Yup.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

The regionals have no leverage to pass on costs to their customers (the majors). There are too many regionals, too many 50-seaters, and too few customers. And the few customers that do exist (only three airlines, remember) have pretty much decided that anything less than a 70-seater is useless to them, and even a 70-seater is of marginal use.

Pilots need to stop thinking like pilots and start thinking like businessmen if they want to understand what is going on at the regionals.

 

[ZapBrannigan]

What you fail to understand is that it's ok for unsustainable businesses to leave the marketplace. Even healthy. Is it good for the pilots at those companies? Not in the short term, no. But it is good for our profession long term. Aside from a few very price sensitive discretionary travelers, the size of the a marketplace is not going to shrink. The traveling public still needs to get where they are going. Pilot compensation is just going to factor in to the cost along with everything else. Hopefully all of these mega carriers have economies of scale that allow those costs to be leveraged over a large network.

Bottom line, the pilots can not single handedly save the airline by thinking like businessmen. You can't force pilots to come to work for your company just because you cry poor. If they want to continue to operate, the 'businessmen' will have to figure out a solution.

I really don't see what you are getting at. What exactly do you - a trade unionist - think should happen? Should Eagle have accepted that trainwreck TA that capped FO pay at four years because they were thinking like business owners?

No, of course not.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

What you fail to understand is that it's ok for unsustainable businesses to leave the marketplace.

Oh no, I fully understand that. In fact, it's what I've been arguing is going to happen. What I'm arguing with is this idea that the regionals can just increase wages to fix the pilot shortage. They can't. And pilots sound like uneducated dimwits when they argue such silliness. It shows a fundamental lack of understanding of the economics.

I really don't see what you are getting at. What exactly do you - a trade unionist - think should happen? Should Eagle have accepted that trainwreck TA that capped FO pay at four years because they were thinking like business owners?

I see two possible solutions at this point:

1. Many of the regionals go out of business, leaving only a couple of them providing all of the profitable 70-78 seat feed.

or

2. The pilots agree to working for less in exchange for guaranteed career progression. A pilot would be willing to work for $22k his first year if he's handed a mainline seniority number the day he shows up for class at his regional airline. If such a system were set up, pilots would come out of the woodwork to accept those crappy first year wages.

 

[ZapBrannigan]

Boy I hope option two isn't the answer. That is a b scale by it's very definition. The "work around" being that the B's aren't on the same seniority list so there is no expectation that the association will bargain to increase wages for the unwashed masses flying for the "regionals".

I hope (perhaps naively) that the majors will see that the regionals aren't providing reliable feed or a quality product for their customers and reclaim that flying while, in the meantime, ALPA uses some of this newfound negotiating capital to reclaim scope including 70-78 seat flying (essentially taking back all of that F28, Bac1-11, DC9 gauge flying that I've been whining about losing for a decade or more).

Remember in the 90s when regionals were simply feed, there were a lot more major airline jobs to aspire to because those narrow body platforms were still on the mainline seniority list with commensurate mainline pay and benefits. It wasn't inconceivable that the vast majority of regional pilots could move to the majors if they chose to do so. The RJ and especially the Ejets have removed that bottom tier mainline equipment for the mix, which reduced the number of mainline openings. Why ALPA ever sold that scope will always be a mystery to me.

Option B should be a non-starter, because somebody is always going to be left standing when the music stops. Somebody is always going to be that regional Captain stuck just a few numbers from the flow, the regional copilot stuck (with a capped 4 year pay scale) just a few numbers from upgrade, the reserve just a few numbers from a line with 12 days off a month with no promise of increased wages or QOL.

As far as option 1, businesses in those small communities may still demand air service and be willing to pay for it. Maybe this is the onset of the next generation of feeders flying modern turboprops to and from hub cities. There is still a lucrative market for that flying.

Let the market decide if the costs are too high for it to be sustainable.