ScorpioStinger
Well-Known Member
I know my questions are complicated, but there are plenty of smart guys on JC.com who could help me better understand fuel price, fuel hedging, and the viability of 50 seater jets in our current economic realities.
Background:
Current oil prices are expected to stay between $60-$80 a barrel for the next few month, i've read many saying about a year, that its not a short term move by OPEC. This is due to current world economic conditons. Due to Saudi/OPEC flooding market (increasing supply = cheaper oil) into next spring or summer. Or at least until a few small-midsize U.S Oil E&P corporations that have been ramping up production with billions of borrowed cash start to bubble/collapse).
Correlation to Aviation:
I've heard so much about 50 seaters being gas guzzlers, I've heard mixed stories of how unprofitable they were, they are, and will be for the majors & regionals who purchased them. But this was when oil and jet fuel prices were at record high prices.
Questions:
At $60-$80 per barrel range for crude and lower jet fuel prices; won't this change, or slow down plans to park 50 seat jets?
Are the Majors now fuel hedging to lock in these low prices!? Or do the bigger regional jets (E175, CRJ700/900 etc) cost less to purchase than 50 seaters? What about operating cost in today's lower oil prices and jet fuel costs?
Won't income/profits differences be obsolete between for example the CRJ 200 and CRJ 700/900???? (Due to lower operational expenses from a 40% drop in oil prices, and thus jet fuel cost)
Any expected delay in parking the CRJ200/E145 and other 50 seat jets that had low margins and lower profitability in the past?
Seems like 3 Big Major Carriers are just moving these 50 seaters around the regional market to the lowest bidder.
Skywest ( plus XJT), is more diversified, than say AWAC. But is AWAC more likely to be obsolete along with 50 seaters when and if prices do go back up?
Background:
Current oil prices are expected to stay between $60-$80 a barrel for the next few month, i've read many saying about a year, that its not a short term move by OPEC. This is due to current world economic conditons. Due to Saudi/OPEC flooding market (increasing supply = cheaper oil) into next spring or summer. Or at least until a few small-midsize U.S Oil E&P corporations that have been ramping up production with billions of borrowed cash start to bubble/collapse).
Correlation to Aviation:
I've heard so much about 50 seaters being gas guzzlers, I've heard mixed stories of how unprofitable they were, they are, and will be for the majors & regionals who purchased them. But this was when oil and jet fuel prices were at record high prices.
Questions:
At $60-$80 per barrel range for crude and lower jet fuel prices; won't this change, or slow down plans to park 50 seat jets?
Are the Majors now fuel hedging to lock in these low prices!? Or do the bigger regional jets (E175, CRJ700/900 etc) cost less to purchase than 50 seaters? What about operating cost in today's lower oil prices and jet fuel costs?
Won't income/profits differences be obsolete between for example the CRJ 200 and CRJ 700/900???? (Due to lower operational expenses from a 40% drop in oil prices, and thus jet fuel cost)
Any expected delay in parking the CRJ200/E145 and other 50 seat jets that had low margins and lower profitability in the past?
Seems like 3 Big Major Carriers are just moving these 50 seaters around the regional market to the lowest bidder.
Skywest ( plus XJT), is more diversified, than say AWAC. But is AWAC more likely to be obsolete along with 50 seaters when and if prices do go back up?
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