Forecast Discussions

[E_Dawg]

I think it's safe to say that any general forecast more than a day or two away can end up to be no where near correct. It's like some kind of a cheap scam when the weather guy says 'well get your rain coat out because we're gonna have a wet weekend' when it's only MONDAY!

So anyways I thought I'd share this site (if you don't already know about it: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

It's where all the official weather comes from anways so you might as well go to the source, and when it comes to forecasts more than a few days away, they have a 'discussion' that you can read. Basically it is some guy (or gal) talking about what the weather *might* do in much broader terms than you get from channel 72 (or whatever). I'd much rather know what the weather may or may not do and have one of those be right than think it will rain only to have clear skies.

Here's an example of the current forecast discussion for the LA area (which I didn't even know they had and is very useful): http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/afos/LAX/AFD/LAXAFDLOX

 

[davetheflyer]

I once heard that it was statistically more accurate to say that "tomorrow's weather will be the same as today" than it is to go by official forecasts.

 

[derg]

Here's a little weather trivia for ya!

Whenever you hear on televison or radio about the "Accuweather forecast" -- there's actually a company on the east coast that produces weather "forecasts" for the entire nation and produces scripts for your local weather guy.

So when he (or she) is talking about upper level troughs, occluded fronts and squall lines and sounding "smart" - most likely he's just reading a prepared statement by a weather forecaster thousands of miles away.

 

[Alchemy]

Exactly, and did anyone notice the widely publicized reports that this hurricane season is going to be about 150% worse than last season?

I realize this may fall into the realm of climatology, which is different than meteorology, but if they can't even accurately tell me what the weather is gonna do in 24 hours why should anyone buy into their predictions about how many hurricanes are going to occur this season?

Right now I'm enrolled in a class university level class called "Introduction to Weather and Climate". Our instructor is not a PhD, he's the Weatherman for a local TV station. He's actually pretty knowledgeable and gives interesting lectures, but he emphasizes that everything to do with forecasting relies on probability algorithims; nothing is certain until it is actually happening.

 

[IrishSheepdog]

I think what Weather.com and some use for the "extended" forecasts are average climate computations based on the past few years, adjusted for the current weather from the past few days. Basically, if it has been 85 degrees when it normally had been 70 degrees, they estimate future weather patterns and temperatures from past climate patterns.

I dunno if you know what I mean, because I am having trouble explaining it!

I know in my head what I want to say! Haha