FedEx closing CGN, LAX, and ANC MD11. New system bid for all of the changes.

GypsyPilot

GypsyPilot

Mohawk Town
Definitely a lot of bad news at FedEx these days. Base closures, contract talks stalled, and now the resulting system bid that will create a ton of chaotic movement. We have a strike authorization vote next week.

I am definitely going to get downgraded from 767 CA back to FO. I have no clue when I’ll be able to hold CA again. I’m not even off high mins yet! Ha ha.

Almost five years ago I turned down a class at United to come here, hoping to prevent such craziness. It just makes me sick to my stomach that I made that decision. The amount of people that are going to quit will be historic I think.

Just blows me away how quickly this place went from a top choice to complete crap.
 
How far back will the downgrades reach ? Will it be possible to make a lateral move to a different aircraft.
 
JEP said:
How far back will the downgrades reach ? Will it be possible to make a lateral move to a different aircraft.
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I don’t know how far back it will go. I might be able to hold MEM 75CA, but that crap will put you in an early grave.

Depending on how it all shakes out, I might be trying to get hired at United again. I found out that I’m eligible to interview again, and I have a friend over there that can help me try to make that happen.
 
GypsyPilot said:
Definitely a lot of bad news at FedEx these days. Base closures, contract talks stalled, and now the resulting system bid that will create a ton of chaotic movement. We have a strike authorization vote next week.

I am definitely going to get downgraded from 767 CA back to FO. I have no clue when I’ll be able to hold CA again. I’m not even off high mins yet! Ha ha.

Almost five years ago I turned down a class at United to come here, hoping to prevent such craziness. It just makes me sick to my stomach that I made that decision. The amount of people that are going to quit will be historic I think.

Just blows me away how quickly this place went from a top choice to complete crap.
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Sorry to hear about this man. Crazy how quickly things change in this industry. I know how good it has been at the big 3 the last year but that ain’t gonna last either.
 
nc1982 said:
Sorry to hear about this man. Crazy how quickly things change in this industry. I know how good it has been at the big 3 the last year but that ain’t gonna last either.
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That’s the one thing that worries me about jumping over… If a decent recession happens, then I’m really screwed. At least now I’ll be a fairly senior WB FO.
 
GypsyPilot said:
That’s the one thing that worries me about jumping over… If a decent recession happens, then I’m really screwed. At least now I’ll be a fairly senior WB FO.
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A thousand times this.

Hate to be that guy but I mentioned freight would see a downturn during the pandemic and was largely chewed out for it. That didn’t manifest itself right away but apparently it’s here.

So air freight over hires the last 3 years and grew unsustainably. Because reasons. Now it’s all falling apart.

The thing is “revenge travel” isn’t going to last forever either. At some point the massive demand that’s driving the unfilled CA bids at United and my 5 year upgrade at my shop, is all going to go away soon as well.

It would be a shame to jump from 5 years of seniority because the bottom dropped out. Only to see it drop out again, this time with 1-2 years of seniority. Right smack in the furlough zone.


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GypsyPilot said:
That’s the one thing that worries me about jumping over… If a decent recession happens, then I’m really screwed. At least now I’ll be a fairly senior WB FO.
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I would 'think' that regardless if passengers are flying or not, the world will need to move packages/freight at a continued frequency. Its anecdotal but Id be curious to see the numbers on freight vs. pax flying in a downturn....
 
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JEP said:
I would 'think' that regardless if passengers arent flying the world will need to move packages/freight at continued frequency. Its anecdotal but Id be curious to see the numbers on freight vs. pax flying in a downturn....
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Yeah, it’ll be interesting to see how everything shakes out in a post-COVID world. Lots of changes happening in Asia - manufacturing moving from China to SE Asia, attempting to diversify TSMC from Taiwan to the US, etc.

I have absolutely no doubt that the pax carriers are going through pent up demand, and there are a lot of potential headwinds out there (credit card debt at all time highs, energy headed higher, housing prices/rents stubbornly high, etc.).

One huge advantage the pax folks have is that a huge amount of senior folks were bought out during the pandemic, which no doubt has been a big part of this crazy hiring.
 
Historically, Purple and Brown have been a good indicator of where the economy is going to go. I don't think the pax airlines will come out unscathed if there is a recession. I have seen the boom bust cycle repeat itself a few times since I started paying attention in the mid-80's. Cargo has always been more secure overall. Most of you don't remember when the major airlines had pensions. Or the furloughs that were before the covid ones. The bankruptcies. AA doing a package bankruptcy to ditch the pensions. No way I'd leave Purple five years in. Wonder what Zap would say.
 
I mean lets think about some of this objectively here…
Yes we are closing the MD11 LAX and ANC bases but that’s because we are retiring the MD11. Hell they’re adding as many positions to the 777 in ANC as they’ll be cutting by removing the 11. They’ve been planning on retiring the 11 since before COVID and now it just makes sense. Losing CGN after dropping HKG makes some sense as well if they’ve determined it to be more cost effective to just run those euro lines out of MEM. I guess I don’t see how any of that indicates some seismic economic disaster at FDX.
Now the realignment bid…
That’s gonna suck in the near term but I’m betting IF we get a contract ratified we will see hiring resume and a sizable group of folks retiring that have been holding out and before anyone even starts to train into their new seat there will be another system bid to fill the gaps.
I would also say the company has been doing a good job of creating a feeling of doom in the pilot group as a negotiating tactic while we are fighting for this contract. Don‘t fall for it. We are still making more money than pre-covid and it only makes sense that things have declined when compared to the covid peak.
Also, we will see a TA within a week. Maybe its good, maybe its bad but I have a feeling its coming even with the strike vote.
 
Brian29 said:
I mean lets think about some of this objectively here…
Yes we are closing the MD11 LAX and ANC bases but that’s because we are retiring the MD11. Hell they’re adding as many positions to the 777 in ANC as they’ll be cutting by removing the 11. They’ve been planning on retiring the 11 since before COVID and now it just makes sense. Losing CGN after dropping HKG makes some sense as well if they’ve determined it to be more cost effective to just run those euro lines out of MEM. I guess I don’t see how any of that indicates some seismic economic disaster at FDX.
Now the realignment bid…
That’s gonna suck in the near term but I’m betting IF we get a contract ratified we will see hiring resume and a sizable group of folks retiring that have been holding out and before anyone even starts to train into their new seat there will be another system bid to fill the gaps.
I would also say the company has been doing a good job of creating a feeling of doom in the pilot group as a negotiating tactic while we are fighting for this contract. Don‘t fall for it. We are still making more money than pre-covid and it only makes sense that things have declined when compared to the covid peak.
Also, we will see a TA within a week. Maybe its good, maybe its bad but I have a feeling its coming even with the strike vote.
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There was much doom and gloom amongst the pilot group at AS and it resulted in a bit of a disaster. Don’t fall for it!

Back to the OP I think the most profound thing said was ask Zap…


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BEEF SUPREME said:
There was much doom and gloom amongst the pilot group at AS and it resulted in a bit of a disaster. Don’t fall for it!
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Doom and gloom is always a tool of those with power.

If you’re scared enough, “maybe this isn’t so bad” becomes a viable option.
 
People have got to stop looking so damn short term. Your career at a place is 20 to 35 years. A 2 to 5 year blip hurts, but unless you think a) you are going to be unhappy somewhere for at least half of your career or b) you are genuinely concerned a place is going out of business, don't worry about it.
 
ppragman said:
Doom and gloom is always a tool of those with power.

If you’re scared enough, “maybe this isn’t so bad” becomes a viable option.
Click to expand...

Very possible, although I think all this has done is make the pilot group very pissed off. I don’t see a TA passing here unless it has major improvements.
 
I feel for my freight brothers and sisters at FDX. Keep up the good fight. Brown & Purple both compete for market share, but we’re all in this together.
 
GypsyPilot said:
Definitely a lot of bad news at FedEx these days. Base closures, contract talks stalled, and now the resulting system bid that will create a ton of chaotic movement. We have a strike authorization vote next week.

I am definitely going to get downgraded from 767 CA back to FO. I have no clue when I’ll be able to hold CA again. I’m not even off high mins yet! Ha ha.

Almost five years ago I turned down a class at United to come here, hoping to prevent such craziness. It just makes me sick to my stomach that I made that decision. The amount of people that are going to quit will be historic I think.

Just blows me away how quickly this place went from a top choice to complete crap.
Click to expand...
You’d be absolutely crazy to bail on FedEx with 5 years seniority. You’re probably close to my age, I’m guessing. I’m ride or die with the MRDSCC and y’all have it much better than we do. Ride the wave out and end up on top as people panic. FedEx isn’t going anywhere.

Just my opinion…absolute best of luck with your decisions coming up.
 
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