Even Vegas is weighing in on the shortage

200.webp
 
Kingairer said:
67
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It isn't the exit, it is the barrier to entry. Being a pilot isn't as lucrative as it once was. The usual reasons- high education costs, lengthy time line till you "make it" and the uncertainty of the industry. Airlines, military & charter industries are all impacted.


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I find it hard to believe this is really a concern for the Las Vegas tourism industry. Any shortage that there is right now will be very temporary. The very pilot-friendly hiring climate we are now enjoying is caused by a very unusual confluence of factors that will not last long and is unlikely to ever be repeated again. For instance, oil prices are much lower than normal right now, we are at an economic crest, and the onslaught of foreign competition from flag of convenience carriers is only beginning. Oil prices will probably revert to the mean any day now and indeed already seem to be rising, and it's already been 7.5 years since the last recession which means we are just about due for another one. Once the economy enters a recession the pilot shortage will be over and will be replaced by an extreme surplus of pilots. Of course, the Las Vegas tourism industry will take a huge hit from the poor economy (Nevada was actually one of the hardest-hit states in the last recession, although that was mainly due to real estate prices being more inflated there than most of the country before the recession), so a shortage of pilots will be the least of their worries. Vacations/tourism tend to be one of the first things people cut out of their personal budgets during hard times. Also, right now any shortage of airline pilots is only at the regional level, but that article points out most tourists are brought to Las Vegas by Southwest, and many others travel there on the ULCCs, which of course don't use regional feed.
 
CFI A&P said:
It isn't the exit, it is the barrier to entry. Being a pilot isn't as lucrative as it once was. The usual reasons- high education costs, lengthy time line till you "make it" and the uncertainty of the industry. Airlines, military & charter industries are all impacted.


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I sure as heck don't want 67, but I'm sure the as the pilot shortage drum beats louder, so will the 67 drums.
 
Murdoughnut said:
Talk of the pilot shortage will be lost in the next cyclical downturn in commercial aviation, which has already begun by some accounts.
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I remember back in 2007 there was also quite a bit of talk about a pilot shortage. Then at the end of the year the economy went to pot and there was a surplus, with plenty of newly furloughed pilots, and the doors of airline hiring slammed shut not to reopen more than a crack for a good four or five years. I find it eerie how similar the present era is to 2007. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the next cyclical downturn has already begun, as it's been more than 7 years since the last recession. Going more than 7 years without a recession is rare and going more than a decade without a downturn would be unprecedented, so we are just about due for one.
 
There was something on the news here a few weeks ago about the increase in foreign tourism as more foreign carriers add non stops to LAS. Vegas really makes it's money on convention season and not traditional tourism. I think the reason Nevada is veiwed as a source is because it is the number one western state for economic growth right now. If youre a local, you can really tell there is a difference. However, there has been a huge drop in gambling revenue because of those damn millenials. ;)
 
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