Decisions, decisions

nibake

Powder hound
This is probably going to be long so I'll do my best to come up with a TL;DR

I have an opportunity to go from a "lowly" 135 job to a national 121 with pretty low times (an "early" career changer). To put things in perspective, I am still a year or two away from meeting Spirit or Frontier's minimums.

Almost 3.5 years ago I joined the JC community and am grateful for all the good and bad advice I've seen in that time. I'm primarily looking for perspective here, as the decision is all but made. I'm hoping to know if I'm on track in terms of what to expect.

The offer I have is with Minnesota's own sun-on-the-tail airline.

Here are some of the JC maxims I remember from over the years:

Don't move for an airline.
Check. There is only one base and it is my preferred city to be based in, as big cities go. I would be moving because that is where I want to go, not for an airline.

Take a chance for advancement when you can.
I think flying for a national airline is advancement over flying old, poorly maintained King-Airs single pilot on a 24-hr on call rotation with North Dakota weather. I have turned down regional airline jobs in the past, and have yet to regret that decision. While first year pay would be worse than a regional, things quickly go the right direction instead of the wrong one in terms of pay. I'm not sure whether the same can be said of QOL.

The name on the airplane should match the one on the paycheck.
Check.

Commuting to reserve sucks.
Will be living in base, and then, hopefully, moving to a location that is driving distance once off reserve, so check.

In spite of these things, I still have some reservations. There is an exception to every rule, and in this case the one national carrier I can go to (theoretically I could apply at Blue or that other, much bigger 737 operator, but I don't think my times would be competitive there) is one of the smallest and lowest paying national carriers. I would consider pretty much any other U/LCC a career destination, and I'm hoping this can be too, but the big pay raises of Frontier and Spirit haven't reached Minnesota yet, although I hope they do. I think although the airplanes and routes may be comparable, the size, payscale, and history of the company mean it's not really on the same level as other LCCs.

Despite the previous dim description of my current job, it's not all bad, and I would be taking a hit in pay and QOL. I'm hoping that pay and QOL can get much better over the long term, but that is contingent on many things, not the least of which is still having the job when it comes time to reap the dividends. The 15 year captain pay figure is only good for me if there aren't lay-offs or bankruptcies before I ever get there. I suppose that is part of the game.

TL;DR - My low times allow me to apply at only one national carrier and it is one of the bottom of the barrel LCC's. I did apply and got an offer. There are quite a few positives however, and I am trying to calculate the risk/reward and sanity of the decision.
 
I'll say this- I moved my girlfriend and I to Minneapolis for Compass because it was a nice enough city and Compass HQ and hometown airline yadda yadda. Several years later Compass moved out of MSP entirely and shifted ops out west. I know it's a different ballgame in your example, but commuting to a job you dont love can be torture. Good luck with your decision.
 
The way I'm looking at it is this: the only real way to both A) Not commute to reserve and B) Not move for an airline would be to decide where I want to live, and live there long term, but be prepared to rent and reside in base for the times when I would be on reserve, which seems like a reasonable solution to me. In this case, even though I am a Minnesotan, this scenario still applies. I think it could be applied anywhere, really.
 
but is your current 135 job any more stable?

That's a good question. It is very stable in some respects, probably more stable than a lot of 121 outfits. A recession would probably not cause me to be laid off. However, enough serious blunders by the company leading to losing contracts could, so it's still very possible.
 
That's a good question. It is very stable in some respects, probably more stable than a lot of 121 outfits. A recession would probably not cause me to be laid off. However, enough serious blunders by the company leading to losing contracts could, so it's still very possible.

That was kind of my point. Pretty much any company is one bad CEO from evaporating. On top of that, your 135 op probably risks disappearing with a lost UPS contract (or maybe a few hospital contracts).

This industry will either reward or destroy the risk takers. I'm fairly certain the pilots who jumped to JetBlue and Virgin early on are glad they didn't hold out for SWA to call. The Skybus guys on the other hand ...
 
That was kind of my point. Pretty much any company is one bad CEO from evaporating. On top of that, your 135 op probably risks disappearing with a lost UPS contract (or maybe a few hospital contracts).

In this case, one hospital contract, yes.

You worry about layoffs (we call them furloughs) and bankruptcies, but is your current 135 job any more stable?

If you think you'd prefer to retire from Sun Country to retiring from your current job, go. It's that simple.

All things being equal, I would rather retire from Delta being MSP based, but that's not going to happen with my times and experience, although taking this job would get me closer to that rather than farther away. What keeps me awake at night, and maybe it shouldn't, is a scenario something like this: I could maybe hold out for enough for another, much better paying LCC (none in particular). If I make my move now and the airline I'm picking fails, that sets me back a long way in seniority and pay, IF I'm even able to get hired at a bigger/better airline at that point. Maybe it bothers me because I've seen so many guys in their 50s and 60s bitter at life, primarily because they bet on the wrong airline at the wrong time. It could happen to anyone, I suppose, but it seems reasonable to assume that it is more probable at struggling brand X than, say, Spirit.

I guess there is nothing saying that I can't make this move now and still have the possibility of making another move should the need arise, although I'd rather not "start over."
 
Dude. Just do it. Like I told you, my buddy there had barely even set foot in an airliner before going to class (10-ish years of 135/91) and absolutely loves it. Sure, there are better LCCs out there, but unless they’ve offered a class date, the old saw about “a bird in the hand...” applies.
 
Relatively speaking, it wasn't all that long ago that folks hired by Pan Am thought they'd won the lotto and some wondered why pilots would waste time at a little start-up out flying 737's around Texas. There is a wide range of possible career outcomes in this industry, you won't know if you "did it right" until you hang em up many moons down the road.

So, I vote go. If more money, more time off is your end goal, then go. Sun Country will get a contract sooner or later and you'll be glad you went when you did. It sounds like Sun Country will be a (potential) long term place that offers a better quality of life.
 
I’d do whatever involves getting as far away from North Dakota as possible.
I'll drink to that.
Relatively speaking, it wasn't all that long ago that folks hired by Pan Am thought they'd won the lotto and some wondered why pilots would waste time at a little start-up out flying 737's around Texas.
Trippe would probably have an aneurysm if he saw today's industry, no?
 
I could maybe hold out for enough for another, much better paying LCC (none in particular). If I make my move now and the airline I'm picking fails, that sets me back a long way in seniority and pay, IF I'm even able to get hired at a bigger/better airline at that point.

There are plenty of regional pilots who turned down jobs at US Airways in 2012, JetBlue in 2002, etc. because they were "holding out for Delta" or whatever. Guess where they still work? The best advice I've seen in this thread is "bird in the hand."

But you need to stop thinking that a 135 operator with a single contract is any more stable than an airline that sells its own tickets.
 
While Sunny is not the friendly MSP Mom 'n' Pop Shop it used to be, you've done a fine job cataloging the potential upsides and downsides of the move. It's also worth noting that the long-term goals you've listed are destinations on the 121 career path, and you currently have no 121 experience. The proportion of successful non-military, non-121 applicants at a career 121 destination without ironclad networking ins is not encouraging, even in our current market.

My only real question would whether you have earned enough hours to check the fabled *1000 turbine multi PIC* box, which it sounds like you have. That would move the decision from "probable good move" to "no-brainer" territory, in this random internet stranger's opinion.
 
While Sunny is not the friendly MSP Mom 'n' Pop Shop it used to be, you've done a fine job cataloging the potential upsides and downsides of the move. It's also worth noting that the long-term goals you've listed are destinations on the 121 career path, and you currently have no 121 experience. The proportion of successful non-military, non-121 applicants at a career 121 destination without ironclad networking ins is not encouraging, even in our current market.

My only real question would whether you have earned enough hours to check the fabled *1000 turbine multi PIC* box, which it sounds like you have. That would move the decision from "probable good move" to "no-brainer" territory, in this random internet stranger's opinion.

Thanks for the input. I do have a year of 121 experience, but it is turboprop cargo, so I think your point about it being a longshot at most good career destinations stands unchanged. Hence why I agree with the "bird in the hand" crowd. Regarding the career goals, I'm really just interested in money and scheduling. From what I gather, a 121 outfit is a good bet to pay off over the long run in those areas. In my early 30s now, there is plenty of time imho to still get up in the payscale, even if I had to make another switch. That's ultimately why I'm looking to "play the 121 game"; to try to get that good seniority and pay over the long term.

Regarding the TPIC number, I'm about 1 to 1.5 years away from that yet, at this SLOW rate. So that is one thing I sacrifice in making the move, but I think I'm ok with that, especially since it isn't a hard minimum anywhere that I can think of, and I will eventually upgrade and get there anyway.
 
Regarding the TPIC number, I'm about 1 to 1.5 years away from that yet, at this SLOW rate. So that is one thing I sacrifice in making the move, but I think I'm ok with that, especially since it isn't a hard minimum anywhere that I can think of, and I will eventually upgrade and get there anyway.
FWIW, I was in your same shoes a few years ago. I was plugging away at a 135 shop and was about a year and change away from getting my 1000 TPIC, assuming the flying remained steady (which wasn’t always a guarantee there). Decided that I had enough, left for a regional and less than 2 years later I got on with a major carrier, never upgrading at said regional.

While I do think the 1000 TPIC is still a good mark to hit, it’s definitely not the ‘end all be all’ number it once was. There’s other ways to make you stand out besides flight time. I got involved in the training/recruiting departments and I believe that helped offset my lack of TPIC. YMMV.
 
Take the job and when something better comes up take the next job. Don’t think sun country living in base will be any worse then what you currently do.
 
nibake, given your current gig and this opportunity at SY, I'd take SY in a heartbeat. And move to Minnie.


Call me crazy, but I still think the 6 remaining un-merged carriers are due for some merging. Sun Country, Allegiant, Spirit, Frontier, Hawaiian, and jetBlue. Get in now at SY and who knows where you could end up?
 
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