CHQ and Continental Flying

[Kingairer]

The closing of FLL isn't going to free up any aircraft. While it seems to us FL guys that our Delta flying has been dissapearing as Mesa takes over, a quick trip to the CVG A terminal will reveal where all those planes and flying went off too. We have 71 departures a day out of CVG next month, compared to 4 this time last year. We also have 16 departures a day out of ATL, where as this time last year we had 0. At it's peak, FLL had 39 daily departures.

Thats true, although aircraft useage and block hours are down. Doing CVG-DAY all day isnt equal to FLL-CMH. I dont think its apprent yet what DLs long term planes for CHQ and the 50 seater are, although there hasnt been an indication that it would be reducing anything in the next 6 months. My guess is that there will not be a rebid of CAL flying and there will be a small 15-20 Jet CHQ presence made up of exsisting ERJs.

 

[chrisdahut1]

Thats true, although aircraft useage and block hours are down. Doing CVG-DAY all day isnt equal to FLL-CMH. I dont think its apprent yet what DLs long term planes for CHQ and the 50 seater are, although there hasnt been an indication that it would be reducing anything in the next 6 months. My guess is that there will not be a rebid of CAL flying and there will be a small 15-20 Jet CHQ presence made up of exsisting ERJs.

I agree...although exactly where the aircraft are going to come from is the big mystery. I think the only thing we can say for sure is they aren't going to be new! Recently everyone has pointed to the block hour reduction by Delta as a sign that the 50 seaters are on their way out, but I'm not convinced of that.

BTW, have you heard the rumour about us using Mesa ERJ's for Coex? It's way out there, but plausible.

 

[Kingairer]

I would expect to see a 70 seat swap out. I also have wondered how long UAL will want to keep 7 ERJs and a whole airline just for those 7. I wouldnt think it would be to far of a stretch to believe that would be willing to sub out some 170s for the 7 145s at UAL. I would expect some of the same deal with US and DL, although I really dont think it'll be one for one. As far as the Mesa planes, i think the quote of "Polishing a turd" or something like that would be fitting. However it would make good sense and be a good trade if these were baseball teams. Mesa could rid themsevles of a fleet type, CHQ could get more 145s it apparently could use, and there is a bunch of Bakin CRJs for Mesa to backfill.

 

[pscraig]

How do you figure we might "keep most of the CAL flying?" I have seen little to indicate that we will be keeping ANY of the flying that CAL bid out. Perhaps I miss understood you. However I would not be surprised to see CAL rebid the flying since I really don't see CHQ coming up with aircraft. I could see them rebidding it to CRJ operators since those aircraft seem to be available and thus cheaper.

Lastly, I guessing you meant that you would hope that the CAL guys don't let go of scope regarding larger aircraft. If so I agree with you however everything I've heard points to CAL pilots flying any 70/90 seaters on their list under their contract which would be a good thing. I'm guessing that's what you were already saying.

I meant I hope we would keep it, but I admit that is very unlikely now. I don't think 70/90 seaters are good for us or CAL. For us, we know quite well we would get just a small increase in pay to fly them. For CAL, there would certainly be a new, lower wage for a smaller aircraft. Either way we continue the trend of wage erosion. I don't want to finally get over to CAL and fly another Embraer for sub-737 pay rates. First-year pay may be the same, but going forward you can bet it will be less.

I don't know the details of the CAL-CHQ deal (does anybody??) but I'm sure there is some sort of clause CAL can invoke to rebid if CHQ can't come up with aircraft.

 

[pscraig]

When did this happen?

Personally, I LIKE the idea of CAL keeping the routes and flying 737s on them. I'd be surpised to see all 69 planes worth of flying go back to 50 seaters. The CAL 737-500s don't seat too much more than a E190 anyway (105 when I was at XJT last year, but I heard they were reducing some 1st class seats to make room for a couple more rows in coach, so it might have gone up about 4-6 seats). Gives me hope there might be a place to move out of the regionals at some point of CAL keeps the flying.....

Amen. Some of those routes have been in need of a 737 for a while, especially with the EMB-170's weight restriction issues.