Bad looking Weather for FL

[JohnM]

Took this radar image and looks nasty for my area ( I live at the black circled lake ) Just gonna miss us for the big stuff but what is behind it is what will hurt :laff:
As I type this I hear the thunder above and a plane :laff:

Cant sleep with that thunder so guess its going to be a long long day.

EDIT: We just got our official Tornado Watch for Orange County.
From now 'till 2 PM

 

[Murdoughnut]

We really need the rain in the southern part, though.

 

[JohnM]

That is true we just dont need the lightning and severe weather along with that rain.

 

[Murdoughnut]

That is true we just dont need the lightning and severe weather along with that rain.

Very true.

 

[Michigan_Flyer]

I flew through that line this morning. Not fun.

 

[JohnM]

I was hee trying to get some sleep get woken up by weather alarm yelling Tornado Warning.

 

[ILSstud]

http://forums.jetcareers.com/general-topics/86019-fl-weather-dooooom.html :sitaware:

 

[kellwolf]

Eh, Lake Apopka has it's own WX system most of the time anyway. Low clouds everywhere else, clear and a million over the lake.

 

[ajf005]

That system has me on day 5 of a 4 day and has caused lots of headaches....It's funny how no one including the passengers want to go through it but dispatch is saying to go try and you can always go to the alternate. We canceled last night and got stuck with the plane to get it back today.

 

[kellwolf]

That system has me on day 5 of a 4 day and has caused lots of headaches....It's funny how no one including the passengers want to go through it but dispatch is saying to go try and you can always go to the alternate. We canceled last night and got stuck with the plane to get it back today.

The ever famous "We just want you to take a look."

 

[JohnM]

lol Just got out from my secure area with the Dog, everything seems calmed down, I cant tell you how many times I heard that crack that I hear when lightning hits that lake.

Lake Apopka is wonderful to view day to day but its a pain in the you know what when a storm rolls around.

Its funny when you never been in a situation when theres so much of a chance of a tornado or something you seem to always hear that train whistle.

There was a storm just south of me moving directly at my place with rotation with speeds of 60 mph, I'm glad it moved and went next to me instead.

 

[Boris Badenov]

The ever famous "We just want you to take a look."

I'm a big fan of "just going to take a look". If you don't look, you don't see. Weather is where you find it. That said, I don't have 50 people in the back. Luckily for them.

 

[killbilly]

See, I look at a radar pic like that and say to m'self not just "no" but "hell no."

Then again, I'm not IR-trained and know that you guys wouldn't fly in something that you thought would kill you.

To the un-initiated, those pics look like hell. I understand the green and yellow stuff is probably okay, but there's an awful lot of red....

 

[Boris Badenov]

See, I look at a radar pic like that and say to m'self not just "no" but "hell no."

It's just like anything else (writing, for example, one imagines): You push just slightly past your "comfort envelope" every time. You gain experience. The unknown becomes slightly more known. And then you crash in a ball of flames. No, wait, I mean then you feel a little more comfortable and capable of pushing it just a little bit farther. The trick is knowing how far to push it. At your level of experience, I'd say green=go, yellow=caution, red=stop is a good way to look at it.

PS. Purple="Kidnap as many nubiles as possible and bar the bunker door".

 

[killbilly]

It's just like anything else (writing, for example, one imagines): You push just slightly past your "comfort envelope" every time. You gain experience. The unknown becomes slightly more known. And then you crash in a ball of flames. No, wait, I mean then you feel a little more comfortable and capable of pushing it just a little bit farther. The trick is knowing how far to push it. At your level of experience, I'd say green=go, yellow=caution, red=stop is a good way to look at it.

PS. Purple="Kidnap as many nubiles as possible and bar the bunker door".

I hear ya.

Let me ask you something - in the other thread you posted those tracks from Flightaware where the guy flew right through a bunch of red in a straight line, basically. I realize you don't have all the variables at your fingertips, but would you have made that flight?

Or would you have deviated around some of that nastiness?

 

[braunpilot]

Remember those radar images are for when the flight lands and not during the flight. There may not have been any weather what so ever in his path when he flew through it. The weather could have gotten a lot worse by the time that pilot landed as well.

 

[Boris Badenov]

Let me ask you something - in the other thread you posted those tracks from Flightaware where the guy flew right through a bunch of red in a straight line, basically. I realize you don't have all the variables at your fingertips, but would you have made that flight?

Or would you have deviated around some of that nastiness?

Well, that's where the experience comes in. I'm not sure what flightaware shows, weatherwise, but I'd bet it's a feed from ATC, in which case it's just precip. You can have extreme precip and essentially no convection. You can have light or moderate precip and terrifying convection/turbulence. I'd characterize learning where you're likely to find either as an "art" rather than a "science". Do it enough and you'll start to get at least an educated guess. Now, that's not to say that the two don't go together...generally speaking the worse the radar picture, the worse the weather, but not always. So the answer to your question is "maybe". Strike that, I certainly would have made the flight, but I might or might not have chosen a different route, or even turned around. Impossible to say just looking at a radar plot. The one thing you can count on (in my experience, anyway), is that every time will be a little bit different, and the bad ones are never the ones you start out thinking are going to be bad. Wish I had a more cut and dried answer for you, but hey, half the fun of flying is "trying new things".

 

[Boris Badenov]

Remember those radar images are for when the flight lands and not during the flight. There may not have been any weather what so ever in his path when he flew through it. The weather could have gotten a lot worse by the time that pilot landed as well.

I thought they changed that? IIRC, it's now where the weather was at the halfway mark on the flight or something. I could be totally wrong about that, though.