Alaska/Virgin arbitration

Yet again, you are looking at the hourly pay raise ONLY and not pricing out the loses in scheduling and trip builds. First, Alaska is a legacy but in name only. Their pilot group has historically paid lower than other legacies, and have routinely bent over and taken lower than acceptable contracts, especially when it comes to scope. Scope is something they threw under the bus time and time again. Second, Alaska is not a commuting airline. Somewhere like 80% of their pilots live in base. VX is the opposite where 80% commute. So, Alaska’s contract has provisions that are SPECIFICALLY for in-base pilots, and as such their lines are built for non-commuters.


Case in point: Lines must have a minimum of 4 separate cycles of 48 hrs off. This leads to many lines with days on, 2 off, days on, 2 off. They have MANY lines that require 5 commutes per month. They don’t care, because they know 80% drive to the airport.


In comparison, we both have many trips worth over 23:20. At VX, you tell PBS to give you a threshold of 70 hrs, and pairing credit greater than 23:20. That’s it. 23:20 times 3 is 70 hrs. So many guys get just three 4-day trips that pay 23:20+ and get 18-19 days off as a result. Just 3 commutes. This line construction is illegal at Alaska because, wait for it, it doesn’t have 4 separate cycles of 48 hrs off! Ridiculous. This is just one small example.


I find it particularly amusing that at Spirit, you’re saying pilots are complaining about a $50/hr raise for a 5th yr CA slot. I have the Spirit management final proposal of this year:

Current Spirit 5th yr CA pay = $136.35
Mgt proposed 5th yr CA pay = $202

That’s almost $66/hr raise or 48%!


Top 15th year CA rate current = $185.32
Mgt proposed Top CA rate = $235

That’s almost $50/hr raise or 27%!



Anyone can play that game. You say pilots will be pilots, and complain about a 30% raise or $50/hr at VX. But Spirit, 5th yr CA is a $66/hr increase or a 48% raise. Aren’t you the unreasonable one for turning that down?

You’ll probably counter, but it means PBS! That will be awful! You’ll say this mgt team will hose the entire pilot group with PBS and you won’t have control over trip quality and building trips, and you’ll lose your trip touch protection pay and vacation conflicts. You can say we’ll need less pilots, but with Spirit’s aggressive growth plans, you know that is not true and you’ll still grow your pilot group numbers.

Amazing how a 66/hr raise for you at a 48% percent raise is *unacceptable* because you’ll gain PBS and lose your line conflict advantages. Translation: I don’t like the high pay raise proposed (and YES, 66/hr = 48% raise is a high pay proposal), because it messes with our scheduling system, brings PBS, etc.

But for VX, you’re all about pay increase and nothing about the loss we take switching to their inefficient line system, which has no conflict/vacation/transition pay protection. You have to add back above 75 hrs. Before throwing the stone at VX pilots for “complaining” about this arbitration awards, a look in the mirror is warranted at Spirit. You of all groups should know a high pay raise is easily offset by a decent margin by losing your scheduling/line benefits. Without actually working here and knowing what we have, what we are losing, and what AS has, you can’t just map my payraise out and say I’m straight up making $50/hr more. I. Am. Not. :)
Actually I supported taking the proposed contract at Spirit albeit with a few slight modifications.

For the commuting line construction example you pretty much made my point about how it was the way they constructed their trips. It’s neither here nor there, it will benefit some and not others. Kinda like the proposed tax cuts.

I don’t think either way is right or wrong, they have their reasons for doing it like they do. What will happen is on the next contract the Virgin guys will hopefully infiltrate some union positions and get their voices heard. The idea should be take what works for the pilot group and take out what doesn’t.
 
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Let’s not think about that anyways. Let’s add up how many pilots we’d need if we would just grow a little.

In all honesty I don’t really see AA growing it’s destinaion list so much. Domestically it’s pretty much tapped out and the foreign carriers have a pretty good handle on the stuff outside the US, specifically the ME3 and their well positioned hubs for worldwide traffic. The one thing mainline can hope for is 100 seater growth at the expense of the 76 seaters. Right now mainline ASMs are up but that is the effect of retiring 140 seat S80s and putting 160/190 seat equipment on its routes.

United is losing ground but they are like a wounded cat and throwing a hissy fit flooding the market with cheap fares.
 
In all honesty I don’t really see AA growing it’s destinaion list so much. Domestically it’s pretty much tapped out and the foreign carriers have a pretty good handle on the stuff outside the US, specifically the ME3 and their well positioned hubs for worldwide traffic. The one thing mainline can hope for is 100 seater growth at the expense of the 76 seaters. Right now mainline ASMs are up but that is the effect of retiring 140 seat S80s and putting 160/190 seat equipment on its routes.

United is losing ground but they are like a wounded cat and throwing a hissy fit flooding the market with cheap fares.
I may be crazy but I think the ME3 is dying. I believe in the peak oil thesis and unless that region adapts to something else I don't think they'll have the underlying capital to be able to compete.
 
I may be crazy but I think the ME3 is dying. I believe in the peak oil thesis and unless that region adapts to something else I don't think they'll have the underlying capital to be able to compete.
Oil is on the way back up as China's economy starts to pick back up and the EU and US the economies break out.

If you mean oil output will decline this is even better for them as oil will be priced higher and higher. Nothing feasible can replace it that is on the horizon.
 
Oil is on the way back up as China's economy starts to pick back up and the EU and US the economies break out.

If you mean oil output will decline this is even better for them as oil will be priced higher and higher. Nothing feasible can replace it that is on the horizon.
No I think the theory that we have seen peak usage of oil has some merit.
 
No I think the theory that we have seen peak usage of oil has some merit.
Maybe the US after electric cars become a reality in 2040-ish. But there are a lot of growing economies besides the US that will be using oil, such as India.

I went and looked at some electric cars. I really like them. However to be anywhere close to cost competitive you have to buy used or get offered substantial discounts. In my area you can buy a 2017 Leaf for $17,500 off the dealer sales price. A BMW i3 which is a great driving car is $50k new, two years later with 9600 miles it was stickering for $21k at a BMW dealer!
 
Maybe the US after electric cars become a reality in 2040-ish. But there are a lot of growing economies besides the US that will be using oil, such as India.

I went and looked at some electric cars. I really like them. However to be anywhere close to cost competitive you have to buy used or get offered substantial discounts. In my area you can buy a 2017 Leaf for $17,500 off the dealer sales price. A BMW i3 which is a great driving car is $50k new, two years later with 9600 miles it was stickering for $21k at a BMW dealer!
2040? Electric cars are already a reality. By 2040 they will be electric and driverless.
 
Maybe the US after electric cars become a reality in 2040-ish. But there are a lot of growing economies besides the US that will be using oil, such as India.

I went and looked at some electric cars. I really like them. However to be anywhere close to cost competitive you have to buy used or get offered substantial discounts. In my area you can buy a 2017 Leaf for $17,500 off the dealer sales price. A BMW i3 which is a great driving car is $50k new, two years later with 9600 miles it was stickering for $21k at a BMW dealer!
A gently used Leaf is a steal right now if you’re into that.
 
A gently used Leaf is a steal right now if you’re into that.
We bought a 3 year old one with 30k miles for $8,200 out the door. Low mileage and in CA my wife can drive solo in the carpool lane to work, saving a ton of time on her commute. Now with this raise we just got I can go out and buy a Tesla...NOT

Oh and @Cherokee_Cruiser is spot on, this arbitration came as a big surprise, there was no compromise, it was all management's position. The good will is zapped away and it'll be a long time before it (if ever) gets repaired. The CEO said in arbitration that they're willing to sacrifice morale to save money. Pretty poignant tone they are setting.
 
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A gently used Leaf is a steal right now if you’re into that.
Depends on the options and battery type...new 2017s in my area are around $12k-$13k with the discounts, probably not worth it to buy used at that price point.

Best value used electric right now is the Fiat 500e.
 
2040? Electric cars are already a reality. By 2040 they will be electric and driverless.
Yes they are, with in some cases huge subsidies amounting to almost $20k.

And that is still for fairly limited range cars with batteries that might at best last 8-10 years before needing to be swapped out. Mileage and usage typically doesn’t kill lipo, it’s time that does.

Remember the older Leafs? They can’t even go 40-50 miles without needing a charge and that is without heat or a/c.

The longevity and usefulness of them is quite limited at this point. Prices are high without subsidies and that is even with the automakers losing tens of thousands per sale made...they are compliance cars and nothing more at this point.

If th government truly wants a reduction in gas cars (they don’t, huge tax hits) they’d greatly expand our energy production to lower costs to $0.05/kWh range and increase the adaptation of electrics.
 
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