Airlines Brace for Shortage of Pilots

I think with things the way they are, aviation is going to lose a lot of career changers. If you think about it, it's difficult to take up flying, even for a private ticket, unless you're making $50K or so. You can't just dump $4-5K into a private ticket if you're scrimping by on $30K a year.

So let's say that someone who's making $50K a year gets his ratings, gets his time in, and so on. Now he's a candidate for a regional.

And he's going to take a what, 60 percent paycut?

How many people are willing to do that?
 
You know what could kill any demand for pilots and indeed stunt the industry really bad? Oil in the next 20 years. In fact, I think it's a given UNLESS we develop new technologies for airline style flying.
 
flyover said:
That is the whole point. There are not "plenty of pilots" to fill the demand in Asia and the Middle East. That pool has dried up.
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Hard to find pilots to fly in the ME?? Gee, wonder why that might be.:sarcasm:

IF there was a shortage, don't you think NJA, FedEx, UPS and the thousands of corporate jet operators would be having trouble? Guess what, they're NOT having trouble. Even operators requiring 5000tt aren't having trouble. The ONLY people having trouble finding pilots are the airlines. Especially the ones offering pitiful wages. Hmmm....where have we heard this before...higher requirements and higher wages equal plenty of pilot applicants. Funny how that works, eh?

The 1000 RJs carry less total pax than the 385 mainline jets they replaced. The airlines caused their pilot shortage by using their entire pilot supply chain to operate more numbers of smaller planes hauling fewer people. This is akin to the City Transit System selling the BIG buses and replacing them with an even larger fleet of Ford Econoline vans. Logistically stupid, but that's just what the airlines have done.
 
NJA_Capt said:
IF there was a shortage, don't you think NJA, FedEx, UPS and the thousands of corporate jet operators would be having trouble? Guess what, they're NOT having trouble.
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It's very early in the hiring cycle right now, certainly too early for top-tier companies to have any trouble. Assuming world economy stays on track (and that's a big assumption) and the growth plans of most airlines in the world are even partially implemented, there is a deep shortage. And how do ME carriers get pilots? With pay, benefits and doing whatever it takes to bring pilots over there. Asian carriers are experiencing losses of Asian pilots to ME carriers, something they had not anticipated.
 
scramjet said:
You know what could kill any demand for pilots and indeed stunt the industry really bad? Oil in the next 20 years. In fact, I think it's a given UNLESS we develop new technologies for airline style flying.
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I started my airline career during the biggest oil crisis America has seen, during the Carter administration. Oil prices are still not near what they were then (adjusted for inflation) and all the dire predictions made then were wrong. Our worldwide oil reserves are way larger than what "experts" thought they were in the 70s and still increasing. So.......I'm optimistic. :)
 
scramjet said:
You know what could kill any demand for pilots and indeed stunt the industry really bad? Oil in the next 20 years. In fact, I think it's a given UNLESS we develop new technologies for airline style flying.
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The oil shortage is really gonna affect personal transportation. Whats left over will be used for commercial enterprises such as shipping, trucking, and commercial air travel until newer technologies can be developed. The distribution of oil will undergo triage, Jo blow who wants to drive cross country with his family to Wally World will be last on the list whereas industry required for the functioning of this country’s infrastructure will be first.
 
I wish I could fine a Natural Resources career forum. Let’s see here I just spent close to 7 years of my life and god knows how much money to get a Bachelor degree in Forest Biology and a Masters in Forest Ecology/Silviculture. You wanna talk about crap pay and meager career prospects. The best I can do is work 3-6 months a year away from home on research field crews (finding a different job each year in most cases) for the next 10 years at about 30k a year and then maybe I can get a full time permanent job making 40-50k a year with the prospects of making 60-70k by the time I retire. Or I can finally pursue a career flying planes work no more than a 1000 hours a year make crap like I am now for the next couple of years but at least I will have the POTENTIAL to make 50k a year before I am 50. Its all relative…… For me personally, if I could make a living flying I would be so happy I could cry and the pay prospects and the POTENTIAL for advancement is much higher than my current career field. Sometimes I sit here and read all the griping and think Jesus come work my job for 5 years and talk about no job security, horrible pay, no benefits, and spending up to 10 months away completely away from home. Again its all relative I suppose.
 
Brian29 said:
The oil shortage is really gonna affect personal transportation. Whats left over will be used for commercial enterprises such as shipping, trucking, and commercial air travel until newer technologies can be developed. The distribution of oil will undergo triage, Jo blow who wants to drive cross country with his family to Wally World will be last on the list whereas industry required for the functioning of this country’s infrastructure will be first.
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This sounds like fresh thinking and dealing with new realities, but it is the very same stuff I've heard off and on for 40 years.
 
I hear yah. I am afraid with this whole issue we are kind of taking a " Well cross that bridge when it comes" attitude when really we should be doing something a little more proactive to make that bridge crossing as smooth as possible.
 
Brian29 said:
I hear yah. I am afraid with this whole issue we are kind of taking a " Well cross that bridge when it comes" attitude when really we should be doing something a little more proactive to make that bridge crossing as smooth as possible.
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Most important things we can do are NOT PANIC and let the markets take care of this as they have before.
 
flyover said:
Most important things we can do are NOT PANIC and let the markets take care of this as they have before.
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But I have already begun work on my 10,000 gallon underground fuel storage tank/bomb shelter, stored 10 years worth of food, water, beer, ammo, guns, gas masks, duct tape, American flags...............Speaking of which I gotta get to the army surplus store and pick up some more supplies. The end is near!!
 
Funny thing is I used to work for this outdoor shop that had an Army surplus store attached to the back. Every time we went on an Orange Alert people would flock in there to buy gas masks, tarps to cover their windows against chemical attacks, guns, ammo, basically all the absurd items “needed” to protect you from Osama. It was hilarious and yet somewhat disturbing.
 
tonyw said:
I think with things the way they are, aviation is going to lose a lot of career changers. If you think about it, it's difficult to take up flying, even for a private ticket, unless you're making $50K or so. You can't just dump $4-5K into a private ticket if you're scrimping by on $30K a year.

So let's say that someone who's making $50K a year gets his ratings, gets his time in, and so on. Now he's a candidate for a regional.

And he's going to take a what, 60 percent paycut?

How many people are willing to do that?
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That is the very reason I am staying put for now. Now in 5 years with a pension that starts on day 1, I CAN afford to work for "McDonalds Fry Guy" wages...do that now? Sorry, I don't like mac-n-cheese that much
 
not to cause a stir or anything....but, do you think RJ flying has improved the flying options for passengers? I know what its done for our career paths, but i would like to see a reference of how many flight options a pax had from point x to point y before RJ's filled the sky and relate it to the amount of options they have today. i commute out of buffalo to JFK for work and can't possibly imagine that in the past there were as many flight options as there are now. Between JB and Delta there are about 15 flights a day. I think the frequency of flights is nice for pax but I can't help but think of the saying "quality before quantity". cut the routes in half, use larger mainline ac and everyone wins. less traffic, less delays, higher margins, better more focused service, crews are happier, pax have less hassels to deal with. but anyway, just a thought
 
We could probably burn all these extra toys and doggy treats we got! I wonder if a PT-6 will put out 1279 shp on Old Yeller's food...
 
NJA_Capt said:
Hard to find pilots to fly in the ME?? Gee, wonder why that might be.:sarcasm:

IF there was a shortage, don't you think NJA, FedEx, UPS and the thousands of corporate jet operators would be having trouble? Guess what, they're NOT having trouble.
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Well, FedEx isn't having trouble finding pilots. Then again, they aren't actively hiring right now, either.

Picking the top tier of the industry and saying they aren't having problems filling slots, to me, isn't a very realistic argument. Those pilots came from somewhere, therefore they're leaving a spot vacant. Unless they're coming from the military, odds are it's another airline with an open seat. I have no doubts that those top places mentioned don't have problems getting people, but the places those pilots come from probably DO have problems filling seats. Let's take NJC. They don't have problems filling holes b/c things suck at the regionals. Even FOs are leaving to go to NJC, despite the fact they'd be upgrading in a few months at whatever regional they're currently at (we lose a ton of guys here at PCL to NJC, most from the FO side). So, now PCL is short experienced FOs that were close to upgrading to CA. Now, let's look at FedEx (assuming they were hiring). Let's say they get a bunch of guys from Delta and CAL. Now DAL and CAL have slots to fill. So, they'll probably hire regional CAs. Now the regionals not only have the FOs diving for the fractionals to back fill, but they've got CAs leaving for the majors. Now, it double hurts that those FOs went to NJC since a majority of their FO work force is inexperienced and unable to upgrade due to time issues. Eventually, with the cost of learning to fly, it's gonna get even tighter at the regionals. With fewer guys at the regionals, it's gonna (eventually) get tighter at places that aren't the top tier of aviation.

I doubt NJC, FedEx, or UPS will ever be hurting, but only b/c they'll be drawing from other airlines, not b/c there's an abundance of pilots jumping into the career.
 
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